LiteForex Market Analytics

XAG/USD: general review

Current trend

Silver prices are showing modest gains during today's morning trading session, correcting after a strong decline the day before, which led to renewed local lows since October 7. Investors are worried about new restrictions that more and more European countries are imposing in response to increasing epidemiological risks. A serious increase in the incidence is also observed in the US, where presidential elections are to be held on November 3. The market seems to have come to terms with the fact that there is no time left to approve new support measures for the American economy before the elections, and the main intrigue now is whether Donald Trump will be able to arrange the approval of the agreement after the vote count.

Today, investors await the publication of updated data on the dynamics of Initial Jobless Claims in the USA, as well as the data on the US GDP for Q3 2020.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a moderate decrease. The price range is expanding from below; however, it fails to catch the surge of the "bearish" sentiment at the moment. MACD is going down keeping a fairly stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, having approached the level of "20" is reversing upwards, signaling in favor of the development of corrective growth in the ultra-short term.

To open new trading positions, it is necessary to wait for the signals from technical indicators to be clarified.

Resistance levels: 23.60, 24.00, 24.37, 25.00.
Support levels: 23.00, 22.40, 21.63, 21.00.

 
GBP/USD: the instrument is declining

Current trend

GBP is trading near zero against USD during today's Asian trading session, consolidating near 1.2900, which was actively tested the day before. Quite good data from the USA provided some support to USD yesterday. The dynamics of US GDP in Q3 2020 showed a steady growth of 33.1% YoY, fully compensating for an equally active decline of 31.4% in the previous quarter. Analysts had expected growth rate at 31% YoY. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 23 fell from 791K to 751K, which turned out to be better than the projected 775K.

British investors, in turn, reacted negatively to the fall in Consumer Credit in September by GBP 0.6B after rising by GBP 0.285B last month. Analysts expected growth of GBP 0.75B.

Support and resistance

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is expanded from below reflecting rise of "bearish" sentiment in the short term. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). The indicator is trying to consolidate below the zero level. Stochastic keeps a confident downward direction but is already approaching its lows, which indicates the risks of oversold GBP in the ultra-short term.

Existing short positions should be kept until technical indicators are clarified.

Resistance levels: 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3081, 1.3125.
Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2850, 1.2800, 1.2761.

 



EURGBP today as we see here, trend is still bearish, so the best choice is to sell it, you can sell it when the price touch resistance area at 0.90122 with potential target up to 0.89860
 
USD/CAD: the pair grows

Current trend

The USD/CAD pair slightly grows amid lower USD activity, trading at 1.3340.

The American market is almost completely frozen. Trading volume and USD Index fell to their lows since the beginning of the year. Tomorrow, the most anticipated event of the year will take place – the US presidential election. Although most preliminary polls point to Joe Biden's victory, nothing has been decided yet since previously, the situation was the same with Hillary Clinton, who was also far ahead of Donald Trump in polls.

Canada's economy continues to recover smoothly, approaching pre-pandemic levels. The GDP level for August reached 1.2%, and the indicator has been growing for the fourth month in a row. The levels of production of goods and services increased by 0.5% and 1.5%, respectively, while the price indices for goods and raw materials slightly decreased to –0.1% and –2.2%. 15 industrial sectors out of 20 strengthened, and 2 of them did not change.

Support and resistance

On the global chart, a rare pattern of candlestick analysis Volume candlestick has formed, which is quite logical, given the fundamental background. For the pattern, the direction of price movement is not important, and pending orders should be placed in both directions. Technical indicators are in purchase. Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal one upwards, and the AO oscillator histogram entered the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 1.3389, 1.3468.
Support levels: 1.3277, 1.3225.

 
WTI Crude Oil: a new growth wave

Current trend

The oil price came to a standstill after a sharp rise, trading near the level of 36.70.

The oil market is at extremely low levels, and traders’ hopes were focused on the new parameters of the OPEC+ deal, which assumed an increase in production volumes from the beginning of 2021 in proportion to the increase in demand. However, demand is declining more and more, so only new reductions are being discussed.

On Friday, OPEC published production levels in its member countries. As the data showed, most countries reduced it according to the last monitoring committee meeting’s plan, and growth is observed only in Libya, which is also expected. The volume of production there amounted to 0.16 million against 0.11 million earlier. The largest reduction was achieved in the UAE, where production is 2.53 million barrels per day against 2.71 million earlier. Saudi Arabia also slightly increased production, where it is 8.96 million barrels per day against the background of 8.89 million a month earlier.

Support and resistance

The corrective movement continues within the global sideways channel, within which the price forms a new growth wave. Technical indicators remain in a sell signal state. Alligator indicator’s EMA fluctuations range begins to narrow, and the histogram of the AO oscillator moves in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 37.90, 42.00.
Support levels: 34.20, 28.70.

 
Current trend

The USD/JPY pair continues to correct downward, trading at 104.30.

The Japanese currency began to actively win back yesterday's losses from the very morning. Service PMI for October, released in the morning, was positive, rising unexpectedly to 47.7 points against the forecast of 46.9 points. Yesterday, the Monetary Policy Committee met to focus on the impact of the pandemic on Japanese growth. According to the committee's forecasts, economic growth by the end of the year will slow down by a value in the range of –5.6% to –5.3%, and in 2021 it will again recover to the levels of 3.0–3.8%.

The US dollar lost its positive momentum. The preliminary election results, which were positive for Donald Trump, threaten to turn into defeat. According to the election headquarters, Joe Biden is already gaining 264 electoral votes, while Trump has only 214. Trump has already begun to actively declare fraud and readiness to sue to review the results in key states, where he first won but then unexpectedly lost.

Support and resistance

The global downtrend continues to form within the downtrend channel, within which another wave of decline is forming. Technical indicators are in a global sale state. Fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are below the signal one, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading deep in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 104.70, 105.30.
Support levels: 104.15, 103.00.

 
Brent Crude Oil: oil is weakening
Current trend

Oil prices began to decline again, dropping to $39.50 per barrel.

EIA data on oil reserves confirmed OPEC's negative scenario. The indicator fell by 7.998 million barrels against the background of the expected increase in reserves by 0.890 million. These data did not have a positive effect on the instrument. On the contrary, investors began to expect with even greater concern the data correction next week. Yesterday, Saudi Aramco said it would cut its December selling prices for Asian buyers. The company decided to take such a step due to a decrease in demand for the company's products under the influence of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

It is becoming more and more obvious that at the OPEC meeting to be held in mid-November, the main issue will be a new cut in production volumes, which the Russian Federation is actively opposing so far.

Support and resistance

On the local chart, the price moves within the local Expanding formation pattern, within which it approaches the resistance line. Technical indicators are in the state of a sell signal but are starting to slow down. The range of fluctuations of the EMA indicator Alligator begins to narrow, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is approaching the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 41.10, 43.50.
Support levels: 38.90, 35.30.

 
XAU/USD: wave analysis

The pair may grow.

On the 4-hour chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) develops, within which the wave 5 of (3) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 5 is forming, within which the wave (iii) of iii is developing. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 2013.38–2074.22. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1880.51.


 
USD/CHF: wave analysis

The pair may grow.

On the 4-hour chart, an upward correction of the higher level forms as the wave (2), within which the development of the wave C of (2) started. Now, the first wave of the lower level i of C is forming. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 0.9295–0.9398. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.8982.


 
EUR/USD: wave analysis

The correction ended, the pair may grow.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (3) develops, within which a local correction ended as the wave iv of 1. Now, the development of the fifth wave v of 1 has started, within which the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of v has formed, and a correction is forming as the wave (ii) of v. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction the pair will grow to the levels of 1.2012–1.2200. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1603.


 
USD/CAD: wave analysis

The pair may fall.

On the 4-hour chart, a correction of the higher level developed as the wave (2), and the formation of the downward wave (3) started. Now, the first wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) has formed. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the local correction ii of 1 of (3), the pair will fall to the levels of 1.2800–1.2700. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3156.


 
Current trend

USD declines actively against JPY during today's Asian session, developing a correctional impulse formed the day before. USD is actively testing 105.00 for a breakdown, partially offsetting the active growth of the instrument at the beginning of the week, which was caused by the reports of the successful completion of the Phase III of clinical trials of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine.

Some support to USD on Thursday was provided by the data on the dynamics of jobless claims. The number of Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 6 decreased from 757K to 709K, which turned out to be better than the projected 735K. The number of Continuing Jobless Claims for the period ending October 30 also showed a steady decline from 7.222M to 6.786M with the forecast for a decrease only to 6.9M.

Support and resistance

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is widening from above, maintaining the "bullish" momentum in the short term after the strong growth of the instrument on November 9. MACD is reversing downwards preserving the previous buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, retreating from its highs, indicating the overbought USD in the ultra-short term.

It is worth looking into the possibility of a corrective decline in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 105.00, 105.33, 105.60, 105.79.

Support levels: 104.75, 104.50, 104.20, 104.00.



 
EUR/USD: wave analysis

The pair may grow.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (3) develops, within which a local correction ended as the wave iv of 1. Now, the development of the fifth wave v of 1 has begun, within which the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of v has formed, and a correction has developed as the wave (ii) of v. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow within the wave (iii) of v to the levels of 1.2012–1.2200. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1739.


 
XAG/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Silver stays at last week's levels, trading at $24.65 per ounce.

World prices for precious metals are still fairly stable. The amount of investment capital is held without significant changes. According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), over the past week, the number of pure speculative positions in silver increased slightly, reaching 45.8K against 45.3K a week earlier.

The indicators of demand for a commodity asset do not change either. In October, the volume of industrial production of the main importer of metal, China, remained at the September levels and amounted to 6.9%. At the same time, the unemployment rate in October fell to 5.3% from 5.4% in the previous month. The level of foreign direct investment continues to grow and is already at the level of 2019, reaching 6.40%.

Support and resistance

On the global chart of the asset, the price continues to correct downward within the downwards channel. After reaching the resistance line, another wave of decline continues to form. Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator intertwined with the signal one and the AO oscillator histogram is at the transition level and is ready to enter the negative zone at any moment.

Resistance levels: 25.73, 29.10.
Support levels: 24.00, 21.60.

 
EUR/USD: the pair is growing

Current trend

The EUR/USD pair is moving within an uptrend, trading around 1.1874.

The long-awaited speech of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde took place yesterday, and its main topic was the prospects for the recovery of the EU economy. According to the head of the regulator, even in 2021, the economy will not be able to reach pre-quarantine levels. The key task for the bank for this and next year will be to prevent the current economic crisis from escalating into a financial one. Lagarde noted that she expects the average GDP to fall by 8% in 2020 but the introduction of a stricter quarantine is out of the question, as this could lead to an even deeper crisis.

Meanwhile, the US dollar continues to experience significant difficulties. Macroeconomic statistics moved from positive to negative. The underlying retail sales index for October was 0.2%, significantly worse than the 1.2% a month earlier. The volume of retail sales for October fell to 0.3% from 1.6% in September.

Support and resistance

Globally, the correction develops within a wide sideways channel, and the price approaches the resistance line. Technical indicators keep a buy signal. Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal one, and the AO oscillator histogram is kept in the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 1.1930, 1.2080.
Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1610.

 
USD/CHF: USD is consolidating

Current trend

USD is trading near zero against CHF during today's Asian session, consolidating near strong support at 0.9100. USD received a short-term impulse to growth, which, however, was more due to technical factors. Macroeconomic statistics from the US published on Wednesday turned out to be rather negative and could hardly have contributed to the development of correctional sentiments in favor of USD. Building Permits Change in October showed zero dynamics after a solid growth of 4.7% in September. Housing Starts Change in October decreased from +6.3% to +4.9%. MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ending November 13 fell by 0.3% after declining by 0.5% in the previous period.

Traders are focused on macroeconomic statistics from the US on the dynamics of jobless claims. Investors expect the indicators to continue declining moderately, but the number of Initial Jobless Claims is unlikely to fall below the psychological level of 700K.

Support and resistance

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing from above, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous trading dynamics. MACD preserves moderate decline and a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, having approached the level of "20", reversed into a sideways channel, signaling about risks of oversold USD in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.9126, 0.9155, 0.9200, 0.9239.
Support levels: 0.9100, 0.9074, 0.9028, 0.9000.



 
EUR/USD: the pair grows

Current trend

The EUR/USD pair is moving within an upward trend, trading around the level of 1.1890.

The online summit of the EU leaders ended yesterday. The main issues were the settlement of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh and the vaccine against COVID-19. The leaders agreed to expedite the preparation of national vaccination plans as quickly as possible and expressed their hope that one of the vaccines will soon be available for mass use.

The US dollar is weakening against the major world currencies, trading at 92.220. Investors reacted negatively to the news that US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin refused to extend some emergency funding programs. In a situation where there are no negotiations on new incentives and the current programs are not extended, investors are leaving the dollar. Another negative factor was the data on Initial Jobless Claims, the number of which increased by 742K instead of the expected 707K.

Support and resistance

Globally, a correction develops within a wide sideways channel, and the price approaches the resistance line. Technical indicators keep a buy signal. Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal one, and the AO oscillator histogram stays in the buy zone. In general, the situation is suitable for a quick reversal and trend change.

Resistance levels: 1.1930, 1.2160.
Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1610.

 
EUR/USD: EUR is strengthening

Current trend

EUR is climbing again against USD during today's Asian session, recovering from a slight decline last Friday, which was triggered by the emergence of corrective sentiment in the market. USD positions remain under pressure, as the fundamental picture has changed slightly recently. Investors are concerned about the deteriorating epidemiological situation in the USA, which may eventually lead to additional budget spending and new restrictive measures, which have been diligently avoided by Donald Trump's administration.

However, investors pin their main hopes on the development of a vaccine against coronavirus. Unverified information appears in the media that vaccination of Americans may begin as early as December. Today, traders are focused on the publication of statistics on business activity in the euro area (Germany and France separately) for November. The indices in the manufacturing and services sector are expected to decline, which will be the projected response to restrictive measures in many EU countries.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is actively narrowing, pointing at the flat nature of trading in the short term. MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having retreated from the level of "80", reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating fragile balance of power in the ultra-short term.

To open new trading positions, it is necessary to wait for the signals from technical indicators to be clarified.

Resistance levels: 1.1892, 1.1918, 1.1964, 1.2000.
Support levels: 1.1850, 1.1800, 1.1763.


 
EUR/USD

The pair is in a correction and may grow.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (3) develops, within which a downward correction ended as the wave iv of 1. Now, the fifth wave v of 1 is developing, within which the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of v has formed, and a local correction is developing as the wave (ii) of v. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.2060–1.2200. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1724.


 
GBP/USD: GBP updates local highs

Current trend

GBP is trading with multidirectional dynamics against USD at today's morning session, consolidating near 1.3350 and local highs since September 2, updated at the beginning of this week. GBP is supported by further weakening of USD against the backdrop of rather optimistic news from the US. Investors are reacting to the long-awaited start of the transfer of power from Donald Trump's administration, which is likely to prevent further aggravation of the political situation in the country. The markets were also encouraged by the reports of the possible appointment of the former Fed Chair Janet Yellen to the post of US Treasury Secretary. Yellen is expected to sharply increase fiscal spending to help lift the US economy out of the crisis caused by the epidemic.

Further growth of GBP is limited by the approaching Brexit deadlines. The Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, warned the markets, saying that the country's exit from the EU without a deal could be "worse than COVID-19".

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range is expanding from above, having difficulty keeping pace with the development of the "bullish" trend in recent days. MACD indicator is growing preserving an unsteady buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, approaching the level of "80", reversed into a horizontal plane, reacting to risks associated with overbought GBP in the ultra-short term.

Existing long positions should be kept until technical indicators are clarified.

Resistance levels: 1.3400, 1.3481, 1.3550.
Support levels: 1.3311, 1.3250, 1.3200, 1.3125.