LiteForex Market Analytics

EUR/USD: waiting for new drivers

Current trend

EUR has shown slight gains against USD during today's Asian session, building on a weak "bullish" momentum formed yesterday as EUR retreated from its two-month lows. The macroeconomic background for EUR remains neutral, and the main driver of the instrument's growth is technical factors. Investors are alarmed by the rising incidence of COVID-19 in Europe. France and the UK have already returned a number of restrictive measures, and traders fear the return of a full-fledged lockdown, which will jeopardize all plans and hopes for a gradual recovery of the region's economy.

Today, investors are focused on economic sentiment statistics in the euro area for September. In addition, the markets are awaiting September statistics on the dynamics of consumer inflation in Germany. The forecasts do not expect significant changes in the indicator. In the US, Redbook Retail Sales data are to be released, and several speeches by representatives of the Fed are expected.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a moderate decrease. The price range is almost unchanged, but it remains rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is reversing upwards preserving a sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, retreating from its lows and signaling in favor of growth in the ultra-short term.

It is worth looking into the possibility of full-fledged growth in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.1700, 1.1751, 1.1780, 1.1808.
Support levels: 1.1657, 1.1625, 1.1600.
 
AUD/USD: the pair retains an upward momentum

Current trend

AUD shows correctional decline against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from the local highs since September 23, updated at the opening. The decline in the pair is largely facilitated by technical factors, while the macroeconomic background of the first hours of trading on Wednesday remains quite favorable for AUD.

The most support is provided by data from China. Non-Manufacturing PMI in September increased from 55.2 to 55.9 points with the forecast of the decline to 52.1 points. NBS Manufacturing PMI for the same period strengthened from 51 to 51.5 points, which also turned out to be better than market expectations of 51.2 points. Only the Caixin Manufacturing PMI was slightly disappointing. In September, the index fell from 53.1 to 53.0 points with a neutral forecast.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a moderate decrease. The price range is changing slightly, but remains rather spacious for the current level of activity. MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic shows a similar dynamics, with the only difference that the indicator line is rapidly approaching the level of "80", which limits the potential of "bulls" in the ultra-short term.

Existing long positions should be kept in the short and/or ultra-short term until the signals from technical indicators clear up.

Resistance levels: 0.7150, 0.7200, 0.7247, 0.7274.
Support levels: 0.7100, 0.7071, 0.7036, 0.7000.
 
Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR is again trading with positive dynamics against USD during today's Asian session, recovering to previous local highs after an uncertain correction the day before. The positions of EUR were somewhat weakened by the rather optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the US, while the European data did not have a noticeable effect on the dynamics of the market. Instead, investors widely discussed the speech of the ECB President Christine Lagarde, who noted that the regulator could follow the path of the US Fed and allow a short-term excess of the inflation target in order to "catch up" with the previous rates of economic growth. In addition, traders are still seriously concerned about the coronavirus situation. The second wave is likely to make significant adjustments to the current forecasts from leading regulators. Today, investors are focused on the publication of data on the Unemployment Rate in the euro area for August. Markets will also be watching a special summit of the EU heads who will gather to discuss the situations in Belarus and Nagorno-Karabakh.

GBP/USD

GBP shows growth against USD during today's morning session, updating local highs of September 21. GBP is strengthening against the backdrop of weak USD positions, as well as hopes for a trade agreement between the UK and the EU by the end of the year. Meanwhile, the US macroeconomic statistics published on Wednesday provided significant support to the USD. ADP's Employment Change report indicated an increase of 749K jobs in September after rising by 481K in the previous period. Analysts had expected an increase of 650K. However, it should be noted that the positive statistics from ADP was partially offset by news of large-scale layoffs at Walt Disney and Shell. Disney Corporation announced 28K job cuts, while Shell intends to lay off almost 9K of its employees. Today, British investors are awaiting a speech by Andrew Haldane from the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee.

NZD/USD

NZD maintains its "bullish" momentum during today's Asian session and is updating local highs since September 23. Buyers' activity is gradually decreasing, as the positions of USD look more and more attractive against the background of the existing risks in the global economy. Investors are noticeably concerned about the epidemiological situation in the world, which provokes an increase in demand for safe assets. In addition, the USA is preparing for the presidential election, which can also make significant adjustments to the dynamics of the market. In turn, support for NZD is provided by strong statistics from China. Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI in September increased from 55.2 to 55.9 points with the forecast of the decline to 52.1 points. NBS Manufacturing PMI for the same period strengthened from 51 to 51.5 points, which also turned out to be better than market expectations of 51.2 points. Today, traders are focused on the data from the US on the dynamics of personal income and spending, and on business activity in the manufacturing sector.

USD/JPY

USD shows the flat dynamics of trading against JPY during today's morning session, consolidating after another update of local highs the day before. On Wednesday, USD updated its highs since September 15; however, the "bulls" failed to consolidate at new levels, despite the publication of a strong report from ADP. Buying activity in USD is significantly limited ahead of the release of the final report on the US labor market this Friday. Japanese data released today were controversial and did not provide any support to JPY. Tankan Large Manufacturing Index in Q3 2020 increased from –34 to –27 points, which turned out to be worse than the market expectations of an increase to –23 points. Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index for the same period strengthened from –17 to –12 points, while analysts expected growth to –9 points.

XAU/USD

Gold prices have returned to growth during today's Asian trading session in an attempt to recover to the previous local highs, updated the day before. USD received not the most confident impetus for growth yesterday, responding to the first debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, as well as from the publication of a rather strong ADP Employment Change report, which somewhat softened the general negative sentiment. At the end of the week, the September labor market report will be published in the US. According to forecasts, Non-Farm Payrolls could be reduced from 1.371M to 850K. In turn, the instrument feels support from the previous factors including the difficult epidemiological situation in the world and the upcoming elections in the US, which will become another source of uncertainty.
 
Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR is declining against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating near 1.1700 and local highs since September 22, updated the day before. Another decline in EUR is due to technical factors, as investors fix their long positions ahead of the publication of the September report on the US labor market. The previously strong ADP report on private sector employment provided significant support to market sentiment. It is likely that Friday's statistics will also be better than forecasts, which, however, will only provide USD with a short-term support. The market today reacts to any optimistic signals from the US with an increase in demand for risky assets. European investors today expect the publication of data on Consumer Prices in the euro area in September. In addition, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos will speak during the day.

GBP/USD

GBP is declining during this morning session, developing the corrective impulse formed the day before, when the pair retreated from its highs since September 18. Market participants are closing part of their long positions on the instrument before the publication of the US labor market report for September. In addition, investors are concerned about the rapid increase in the number of new cases of coronavirus, which could significantly complicate the recovery of the British economy. Yesterday, the UK reported a decline in the Manufacturing PMI from 54.3 to 54.1 points, while analysts did not expect it to change at all. The US data was slightly better, but also reflected a slowdown in growth. The ISM Manufacturing PMI in September fell from 56 to 55.4 points against the forecast of growth to 56.3 points.

AUD/USD

AUD has declined against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs since September 22, updated on Thursday. The instrument loses about 0.35%, testing the level of 0.7150 for a breakdown. Buying activity for the instrument is expected to decline at the end of the week, as investors are fixing long profits. In addition, traders are in no hurry to open new positions before the publication of the report on the US labor market, which, given the previously published strong report from ADP, may be positive. AUD was slightly supported on Friday by the Australian Retail Sales statistics. In August, sales were down by 4% MoM after falling by 4.2% MoM in the previous month.

USD/JPY

USD is growing during today's morning trading session, again approaching its local highs since September 15, which were updated at trading last Wednesday. USD is strengthening after yesterday's publication of rather optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the US. At the same time, it should be noted that strong data from the US is leading to an increase in demand for risky assets; however, paired with the "safe" JPY, USD is expected to win. The number of Initial Jobless Claims in the US for the week ending September 25 fell from 873K to 837K, which was better than market expectations of 850K. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index was also positive, having increased by 1.6% YoY in August, accelerating from the previous value of +1.4% YoY. JPY was also under pressure from weak data from Japan. Japan's Unemployment Rate in August rose from 2.9% to 3.0%, and the Jobs/Applicants Ratio for the same period corrected from 1.08 to 1.04.

XAU/USD

Gold prices decline significantly during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs since September 22, updated the day before. Investors are fixing long positions ahead of the release of reports on the US labor market on Friday, as well as responding to some improvement in market sentiment. Strong data from the US supported the demand for risk, especially after the US Treasury officials said that the chances of early approval of the new economic aid package increased markedly. At the same time, gold continues to benefit from rising coronavirus incidence statistics in Europe. The trend has not yet been reversed, as many countries are reluctant to return quarantine restrictions, fearing to disrupt the fragile economic recovery. Today investors are focused on the publication of the US labor market report. Investors expect the emergence of 850K new jobs in Non-Farm Payrolls, which is significantly less than the previous growth of 1.371M. However, given the strong performance in private sector employment, it is possible that the real dynamics will be noticeably better.
 
Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR is showing weak gains against USD during today's Asian session, recovering from last Friday's decline, which turned out to be quite rich in various news drivers. First of all, the markets discussed Donald Trump's sudden quarantine in connection with a positive test for COVID-19. Investors fear that Trump will not be able to continue the political race in such conditions, with only about a month left before the presidential elections. Some pressure on the positions of EUR on Friday was exerted by the data from the eurozone. Consumer Price Index in September fell by 0.3% YoY, accelerating from the previous decrease by 0.2% YoY. Core Consumer Price Index for the same period decelerated from +0.4% YoY to +0.2% YoY, while forecasts assumed its growth to +0.5% YoY. On Monday, investors are focused on the European statistics on Markit Services PMI, as well as the August data on the dynamics of Retail Sales in the euro area.

GBP/USD

GBP is showing flat dynamics of trading during today's morning session, maintaining a weak "bullish" advantage, preserved from last week. GBP buying activity is noticeably weakening amid new statements by Boris Johnson, who reiterated that the UK will be able to do without a trade agreement with the EU after the Brexit transition period ends at the end of the year. However, the Prime Minister stressed that he would like a different outcome of the situation, but so far the parties are faced with insurmountable contradictions during the negotiations. The US macroeconomic statistics released on Friday had an ambiguous impact on the market dynamics. In September Non-Farm Payrolls showed growth only by 661K new jobs, while last month was marked by an increase of 1.489M. Experts expected the growth by 850K. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate in the USA in September has steadily decreased from 8.4% to 7.9% against the forecast of 8.2%.

AUD/USD

AUD is trading in both directions against USD in the ultra-short term, being located near its local highs and the level of 0.7200. Investors reacted rather restrainedly to Friday's data on the US labor market, because Donald Trump's positive test for COVID-19 became the main subject of speculation unexpectedly for everyone. The news of the US President's illness increased the uncertainty ahead of the upcoming November elections, and helped to reduce the demand for risky assets. Moderate support for AUD at the beginning of the week is provided by macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Commonwealth Bank Services PMI in September rose from 50 to 50.8 points, which was better than the neutral forecasts of analysts. Commonwealth Bank Composite PMI for the same period strengthened from 50.5 to 51.1 points. TD Securities Inflation data in September reflected growth by 0.1% MoM and 1.3% YoY, which was in line with previous estimates.

USD/JPY

USD is gaining strength against JPY during today's Asian session. The instrument adds about 0.23% and is testing the level of 105.60 for a breakout. USD again received an impulse to grow as a safe-haven currency after Donald Trump tested positive for coronavirus, which became the main topic of speculation at the end of last week. Japanese statistics, published on Friday, failed to provide significant support to JPY. The Unemployment Rate in August rose from 2.9% to 3.0%, which was expected. Jobs / Applicants Ratio in August decreased from 1.08 to 1.04 against the forecast of 1.05. At the same time, the Consumer Confidence Index in September rose from 29.3 to 32.7 points, which, however, did not meet investors' expectations at 33.8 points.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are declining during today's Asian session, developing a correctional decline since last Friday, when the instrument retreated from its local highs since September 22. The appearance of "bearish" trend was facilitated by the corrective sentiment in the market, which intensified at the end of last week with the unexpected message about Donald Trump's positive test for coronavirus. Now investors are trying to predict the possible consequences of the forced quarantine of the US President, which is especially important on the eve of the presidential election, which is only a month away. Trump's rival for the presidency, Joe Biden, has also drawn attention in this regard. Analysts do not exclude the possibility of postponing the elections in the event of a hypothetical infection of Biden.
 
EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

EUR shows insignificant growth against USD during today's Asian session, developing a strong "bullish" impulse formed yesterday. Market sentiment improved markedly yesterday after reports that President Donald Trump could be discharged from the hospital soon. In addition, traders again believed in the imminent approval of a new stimulus package for the US economy, which was probably also facilitated by Trump's diagnosis.

Macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone released on Monday provided additional support to EUR. Retail Sales in the euro area increased by 4.4% MoM in August after falling by 1.8% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected increase by 2.4% MoM only. On an annualized basis, sales increased by 3.7% YoY after falling by 0.1% YoY. The forecast assumed growth by 2.2% YoY.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is changing slightly, but remains rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). The indicator is also testing the zero level for a breakout. Stochastic, approaching the level of "80" shows multidirectional dynamics, signaling that EUR is overbought in the ultra-short term.

Existing long positions should be kept until technical indicators are clarified.

Resistance levels: 1.1808, 1.1860, 1.1881, 1.1916.
Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1751, 1.1700, 1.1657.
 
Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR is showing ambiguous trading dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating at 1.1730. The day before, EUR showed a steady decline and retreated from its local highs since September 21, which was associated with a rather unexpected statement from Donald Trump, who suspended negotiations on a new program to support the US economy until the November elections. Interestingly, Trump made this statement just a few hours after the speech by the US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who reiterated the urgent need for new stimulus measures and pointed out the risks of a recession in the American economy. The President of the ECB Christine Lagarde also spoke about the need for new support measures on Tuesday, reminding the markets that the regulator is still able to reduce rates to negative values.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading with multidirectional dynamics during today's morning session, slightly recovering after the active decline the day before, which interrupted the uncertain "bullish" trend for the instrument since September 24. GBP reacted with a confident fall to the statements of Donald Trump, who decided to end the controversy over a new stimulus program for the US economy and postponed this process until after the November presidential elections. Investors were disappointed with these statements, as at the beginning of the week the market was dominated by direct opposite sentiments and traders were selling USD on growing expectations of a quick approval of a new package of measures. Today, traders are focused on the US Fed Meeting Minutes and the speech by the Fed representative John Williams.

AUD/USD

AUD shows a slight increase against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after an active decline yesterday, which was triggered by a new wave of growth in investor demand for safe assets. USD has significantly strengthened after Donald Trump's statement on the decision to postpone the discussion of a new package of measures to support the American economy until the November presidential elections. Some pressure on AUD on Tuesday was also exerted by the decision of the RBA to keep interest rate at 0.25%. However, despite extensive discussion of the possibility of further rate cuts, little was expected from the regulator at the current meeting. The dynamics of Exports was much more disappointing, as the figure fell by 4.2% MoM in August after falling by 3.4% MoM in the previous month. Against the background of a slowdown in Imports from +6.2% MoM to +2% MoM, this led to a sharp decrease in the Trade Surplus from AUD 4.652B to AUD 2.643B, which turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations at AUD 5.154B.

USD/JPY

USD has shown a slight increase during today's morning trading session, recovering from an uncertain decline the day before, which did not allow USD to consolidate at new local highs since September 15. The market has actively reacted to Donald Trump's intention to suspend the process of discussing new support measures for the American economy, but JPY is already in high demand as a safe haven currency today. The speech of the US Federal Reserve head Jerome Powell also contributed to the reduction of the demand for risk on Tuesday. The Chairman of the regulator noted that the process of recovery of the American economy is far from complete and there are still significant downside risks on the market, associated with the renewed increase in the incidence of coronavirus. Powell called for support for households, but now it seems that this will have to wait a while, unless party representatives are able to take the initiative and make significant concessions.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are showing ambiguous dynamics during today's Asian session, staying below 1900.00, the breakdown of which was recorded the day before. The strengthening of the "bearish" dynamics on Tuesday was associated with a rather unexpected statement by Donald Trump, who decided to suspend the negotiations on a new fiscal stimulus package until the end of the presidential elections in November. The President's statement came against the backdrop of numerous calls for further support for the American economy, as well as against the backdrop of outlined progress in the discussions (at the beginning of the week, regular talks were held between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin).
 
USD/CAD: the instrument consolidates

Current trend

Today during the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair shows ambiguous dynamics, trading near the local lows of September 21. Yesterday, USD fell after a corrective growth on Tuesday, when markets reacted violently to Trump's sudden announcement of a freeze on negotiations under a new program to support the American economy. Canadian Wednesday’s macroeconomic statistics was rather poor. Thus, the index of business activity from Ivey for September fell from 67.8 to 54.3 points, which was worse than the market average forecasts.

On Thursday, Canadian investors are awaiting the publication of information on the dynamics of construction started in September. By the opening of the American session, the focus will shift to the speech of the head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, who only recently took office (June 3, 2020). On Friday, the September report on the Canadian labor market will be released, as the corresponding from the US released last week.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands grow uncertainly. The price range changes insignificantly but remains wide enough for the current level of market activity. MACD falls, maintaining a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic reversed upwards at the lows, reflecting that the dollar is oversold in the super short term.

To open new trading positions, it is better to wait until the signals from technical indicators are clarified.

Resistance levels: 1.3300, 1.3350, 1.3400, 1.3440.
Support levels: 1.3241, 1.3200, 1.3160, 1.3132.
 
USD/JPY: USD remains under pressure

Current trend

USD is actively declining against JPY during today's Asian trading session, developing last Friday's "bearish" signal, which was formed against the backdrop of a sharp rise in risk demand. Traders reacted to renewed talks on a new stimulus package for the American economy, despite Donald Trump's decision to suspend them last week until the presidential election in November.

The Japanese macroeconomic statistics released today had an ambiguous impact on the instrument dynamics. Bank Lending in September slowed down from +6.7% YoY to +6.4% YoY with the forecast of growth to +7.5% YoY. Machinery Orders in August sharply slowed down from +6.3% MoM to +0.2% MoM, which, however, turned out to be better than the expected –1.0% MoM.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart Bollinger Bands are sharply reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing from below, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is going down having formed new sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic demonstrates a more confident decline and is currently located approximately in the center of its area, signaling the prospects for the development of an ultra-short-term downward correction.

Current showings of the indicators do not contradict the further development of the downtrend in the short term.

Resistance levels: 105.60, 105.79, 106.00, 106.20.
Support levels: 105.43, 105.19, 105.00, 104.75.
 
WTI Crude Oil: prices are falling

Current trend

Today during the Asian session, oil prices are consolidating near $39.50 per barrel after a two-day “bearish” rally. At the start of the week, quotes were under pressure by increased market supply as US oil producers resumed their work in the Gulf of Mexico as Hurricane Delta moved inland. Also, production is increasing in Libya, where the largest field, El Sharara, has resumed its work. Finally, Norwegian oil workers have ended their strike, which should also help boost oil production.

On Tuesday, investors are focused on the statistics from the US on consumer inflation and the API report on oil reserves for October 9. The previous publication reflected a slight increase of 0.951 million barrels.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moving flat. The price range remains virtually unchanged, remaining spacious enough for the current level of market activity. The MACD indicator is stretching into the line near the zero line. At the moment, the indicator readings are not informative enough. Stochastic, on the other hand, maintains a confident downward trend, which hardly correlates with the real dynamics in the market.

It is better to wait until the market situation becomes clear to open new trading positions for the instrument.

Resistance levels: 39.57, 40.00, 40.60, 41.43.
Support levels: 38.97, 38.62, 38.00, 36.75.
 
XAU/USD: gold prices are going down

Current trend

Gold prices are relatively stable during today's Asian trading session and are consolidating at 1900.00. The day before, the instrument showed a confident decline, which was caused by the growth of USD in response to the general deterioration in market sentiment.

Investors are still discussing the topic of stimulus measures for the US economy, but more and more analysts are in favor of the fact that the new package of measures will be adopted after the US presidential elections on November 3. Additional support for gold is also provided by the fact that Joe Biden is leading in the presidential race, since if he wins the election, the presidential administration may increase spending at first. Finally, the difficult situation with the coronavirus in the world contributes to the growth in demand for safe assets. WHO records the strongest increase in daily incidence since spring, while no state has completed clinical trials of the vaccine yet. Johnson & Johnson is suspending trials of its vaccine because one of the volunteers had adverse reactions.

Support and resistance

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the multidirectional dynamics appearance in the short term. MACD reversed downwards having formed a new weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is showing slightly more stable decline and is located in the middle of its area.

Resistance levels: 1900.00, 1920.82, 1935.00, 1955.00.
Support levels: 1885.00, 1872.80, 1850.00.
 
EUR/USD: waiting for new drivers

Current trend

EUR is trading in different directions against USD during today's morning session, waiting for new drivers. The trading on Wednesday was also mixed, which was facilitated by the low demand for risk, as well as the weak position of USD against the background of vague prospects for new stimuli in the US.

The statistics from the eurozone released on Monday put additional pressure on EUR. Industrial Production in August fell sharply from 5% MoM to 0.7% MoM, which turned out to be slightly worse than market expectations at +0.8% MoM. In annual terms, the decline in production accelerated from –7.1% YoY to –7.2% YoY, which, however, coincided with the forecasts. European investors are focused on the speech of ECB President Christine Lagarde before the start of the IMF and European Council meetings at the end of the week.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show unsteady growth. The price range is narrowing, reflecting ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD reversed downwards having formed a new sell signal (located below the signal line). In addition, the indicator tests the zero mark for the breakdown. Stochastic keeps a confident downward direction but is already approaching its lows, which indicates the risks of oversold euro in the ultra-short term.

Existing short positions should be kept until technical indicators are clarified.

Resistance levels: 1.1780, 1.1806, 1.1850, 1.1881.
Support levels: 1.1732, 1.1700, 1.1657, 1.1625.
 
Brent Crude Oil: prices stabilized

Current trend

Against the backdrop of global tensions on world markets, oil prices are trading within a narrow range, currently being around $42.70 per barrel.

This week, the instrument has practically not changed against the previous week. The oil market is under pressure from low demand for energy, the forecast of which looks unfavorable against the background of the introduction of additional quarantine measures in the EU countries, which are the main importers. Moreover, the volume of oil exports from the United States fell to the year’s lows at 2.135 million barrels per day.

According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the demand for oil contracts has been staying at roughly the same levels for over a month. The number of pure speculative positions showed a slight weekly increase to 472.8K against 471.5K a week earlier.

Support and resistance

Locally, the price moves within a wide sideways channel, and, trading near the resistance line, forms the first signs of a possible reversal. Technical indicators are in the state of a buy signal but the readings are not so obvious anymore. Alligator indicator’s EMA fluctuations range began to narrow, and the AO oscillator histogram is in the buy zone very close to the transition level.

Resistance levels: 43.20, 46.00.
Support levels: 42.35, 39.10.

 
WTI Crude Oil: oil prices are consolidating

Current trend

At the beginning of the week, oil prices show flat dynamics, holding near the level of $40.50 per barrel. Yesterday, the instrument was slightly supported by renewed hopes that a new stimulus package in the United States will be adopted before the presidential elections in November. However, by the close of the daytime session, optimism in the sentiment declined, and investors returned to discussing other problems.

A new growth factor may be the upcoming OPEC+ meeting in Vienna, where the cartel and its allies are expected to adjust the current program to reduce the supply of "black gold" to the market, as well as clarify the prospects for a gradual recovery in oil production next year.

On Tuesday, investors are focused on the American Petroleum Institute's report on oil reserves for the week of October 16. The previous publication reflected a sharp decline of 5.42 million barrels.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands move flat. The price range narrows slightly from below, remaining spacious enough for the current level of market activity. The MACD indicator slightly decreases, maintaining a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic reversed at 80 and signals in favor of developing a corrective decline in the ultra-short term.

It is better to wait for the clarification of signals from technical indicators for opening new trading positions.

Resistance levels: 41.00, 41.43, 42.00.
Support levels: 40.00, 39.57, 38.97, 38.62.

 
XAU/USD: gold is strengthening

Current trend

Gold prices are rising during today's Asian session, taking advantage of the weakness of USD and updating local highs since October 13. The instrument is still supported by a high level of uncertainty in the market, which is associated with many factors. One of them is a new program of financial assistance for the American economy, around which real political battles unfolded. Investors are also noticeably concerned about the leadership of Democrat Joe Biden in the election race, which, if elected president, could dramatically increase budget spending, including supporting the economy amid the ongoing pandemic. The final debate of the presidential candidates will take place this Thursday, October 22.

Support and resistance

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is slightly narrowing from below, reflecting the ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). The indicator is about to test the zero level for a breakout. Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, approaching the level of "80", which indicates that the instrument is overbought in the ultra-short term.

Existing long positions should be kept until the situation clears up.

Resistance levels: 1920.82, 1935.00, 1955.00, 1966.25.
Support levels: 1910.00, 1900.00, 1885.00, 1872.80.

 
EUR/USD: EUR is declining

Current trend

EUR shows moderate decline against USD today, retreating from local highs since September 16, updated the day before. Technical factors were the reason for the appearance of the "bearish" trend for the instrument, while USD remains under pressure amid expectations of new measures to support the American economy.

The deadline for the ultimatum put forward by the House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi expired the day before, but she chose to extend the deadline for one more day. In turn, Donald Trump has stepped up pressure on the Republican Party in an attempt to approve a larger aid package.

On Thursday, in addition to news regarding the long-awaited stimulus measures for the US, investors expect the publication of data on jobless claims in the US. Interesting data from Europe will appear on Friday, when the business activity indicators for October are released in Germany and the eurozone.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is expanding from above, but it fails to catch the development of "bullish" trend at the moment. MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic keeps the uptrend but is approaching its highs, which reflects the risks of overbought EUR in the ultra-short term.

Technical indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bullish" trend in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.1850, 1.1879, 1.1916, 1.1950.

Support levels: 1.1830, 1.1800, 1.1763, 1.1732.