LiteForex Market Analytics

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

Yesterday, EUR against USD rose steadily, renewing local highs since February 6. The macroeconomic background remains controversial. Investors are focused on the protracted Brexit negotiation process and fear that the UK release date will still be rescheduled. Yesterday’s speech of the ECB representative Yves Mersch also did not have a significant impact on EUR position. Mersch confirmed that the regulator, as before, intends to promote its own instant payment system TIPS, which allows Europeans and legal entities to make instant transfers regardless of the mode of operation of their local banks.

GBP/USD

GBP against USD rose significantly, renewing its record highs since September 20, 2018. Such a significant increase was due to the speech of British Prime Minister Theresa May, which gave the British parliament the right to postpone Brexit if the necessary changes to the final agreement are not made. Until March 12, which is scheduled for the next parliamentary vote, May will try to hold a series of meetings with European Commission and to achieve a solution to controversial issues on the Irish border. In case of failure, on March 13, a vote to leave the country according to a “hard” scenario will be held. If the parliamentarians will again be against it, then on March 14, there will be the third vote for the postponement of the final UK exit from the EU.

AUD/USD

Today, during the Asian session, AUD is slightly rising, trading around weekly highs with moderate support from poor US dollar positions. In addition, investors expect a positive resolution of the trade conflict between the United States and China. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic background of Australia remains ambiguous. Wednesday’s 2018 Q4 Construction Work Done release declined by 3.1% QoQ after a decline by 2.8% QoQ in the previous period. Investors were counting on a positive trend of +0.4% QoQ.

USD/JPY

Yesterday, USD fell against the JPY, departing from local highs, renewed at the beginning of the week. The emergence of negative dynamics on the dollar was due to the ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the United States. Thus, December Housing Starts index decreased from 1.214 million to 1.078 million houses, which was significantly lower than analysts' forecasts of 1.250 million. In percentage terms, the decline was more than 11%. At the same time, the December housing price index from S&P/CaseShiller increased by 4.2% YoY, slowing down against the previous +4.6% YoY. Analysts predicted a growth rate of +4.5% YoY.

Oil

Yesterday, oil prices resumed their growth and rebounded slightly after a significant decline the day before, caused by Donald Trump's appeal to OPEC, in which he asked not to hurry with price increases. Growth was due to API the report on energy reserves, reflecting a sharp decline in stocks by 4.20 million barrels by February 22. Last time, the figure increased by 1.26 million barrels. In turn, the risks of resuming the operation of El-Sharara, the largest oil field in Libya, prevented further strengthening.
 
LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro is consolidating against the US dollar, remaining close to its local highs, updated on February 27. Yesterday, EUR showed a decline in view of the generally negative mood of investors. However, macroeconomic indicators from the Eurozone turned out to be quite good. The services sentiment index in February rose from 11.0 to 12.1 points, which turned out to be above market expectations. The business climate indicator for the same period remained at 0.69 points, against the forecasts of a decline to 0.60 points. The updated comments of the European Commission were also positive, although investors left them without proper attention. The analysis revealed that the level of employment continues to be at record levels, while unemployment rates are steadily declining. The EC called on the countries to increase investment activity and implement the necessary budgetary reforms.

GBP/USD

The British pound once again showed strong growth against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating record highs of July 9. The pound continues to be supported by improved prospects for Brexit after British Prime Minister Theresa May promised the voting on the extension of the country's withdrawal from the EU if the parliament won't approve withdrawal without a deal. However, the postponement may have a number of negative aspects related primarily to the growth of political tensions within the country. However, in the situation of the current impasse, such a scenario is perhaps more preferable. It is not excluded that, in the case of postponement, a second referendum may be held, following which the country may not leave the EU.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar fell remarkably against the US dollar on February 27, partially offsetting the results of the moderate growth at the beginning of the week. Some pressure was exerted on the instrument by weak macroeconomic indicators from Australia. The volume of completed construction in 4Q2018 collapsed by 3.1% QoQ after declining by 2.8% QoQ in the previous period. Analysts expected positive trends of 0.4% QoQ. Today, the pair is trading again in an upward trend, ignoring weak statistics from China. Australian data, in turn, provide moderate support. The volume of private capital expenditures for 4Q2018 increased by 2.0% QoQ after zero growth last quarter. Analysts expected a growth rate of 0.5% QoQ. Private sector lending in January remained at 0.2% MoM and 4.3% YoY, which turned out to be somewhat worse than market expectations.

USD/JPY

The US dollar rose against the Japanese yen on February 27, recovering fully from a decline on Tuesday. The US currency was supported by good data from the US on the dynamics of unfinished housing sales, as well as a number of positive comments from the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in Congress. In January, the number of sales increased by 4.6% MoM after declining by 2.3% MoM in December. Investors predicted a growth of 0.4% MoM. During the Asian session today, the pair is trading in both directions. Investors are playing on ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Japan. According to preliminary estimates, industrial production in January decreased by 3.7% MoM after declining by 0.1% MoM in December. Investors counted on -2.5% MoM. Retail sales in January showed a decline of 2.3% MoM after rising by 0.9% MoM last month. YoY, the index slowed down from 1.3% to 0.6%.

Oil

Oil prices continued to rise on Wednesday and reached the same local highs, updated at the beginning of the week. Quotes were strongly supported by the report of the US Department of Energy on the dynamics of oil reserves. According to the report, as of February 18, oil and petroleum products in US warehouses decreased by 8.647 million barrels, after rising by 3.672 million over the previous period. Analysts expected growth of 2.842 million barrels. In addition, investors were optimistic about the statements of Saudi Minister of Energy Khalid Al-Falih, who, commenting on the recent tweet of US President Donald Trump, noted that OPEC is primarily interested in the stability of the market.
 
LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

On Thursday, the euro showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar. In the first half of the day, EUR was trading in an upward trend and managed to update local highs since February 5. With the opening of the European session, quotes went down actively, which was a market reaction to the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics and a sharp deterioration in the prospects for resolving the US-China trade conflict. Yesterday, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said that the differences are still very serious and promises and positive intentions are not enough for their resolution. It also became known that the negotiations between the United States and the DPRK also ended in vain, which only increased the overall level of uncertainty.

GBP/USD

On Thursday, the British pound showed a decline against the US dollar, departing from its local highs, updated on Wednesday. The overall decline in investor sentiment contributed to a decrease in the instrument. In particular, the market negatively met the news about the failure of the US-DPRK negotiations since, as many analysts believe, this could be an additional negative signal for the process of trade negotiations between the US and China. The pound is also pressured by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Published yesterday, the consumer confidence indicator showed a slight increase in February from -14 to -13 points, still reflecting the predominance of negative sentiment among British consumers. On March 1, investors will focus on the statistics on consumer lending and the Markit Manufacturing PMI in February.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is developing a downward trend against the US one, retreating to the last week lows. The instrument is pressured by deteriorating prospects for resolving the US-China trade dispute after the US trade representative once again highlighted the seriousness of the existing differences. Published yesterday, the statistics from the United States also contributed to the development of "bearish" dynamics in the instrument. According to preliminary estimates, the US GDP in 4Q2018 grew by 2.6% YoY after rising by 3.4% YoY in Q3. Despite a significant slowdown in economic growth, the figure was still significantly above the forecasts of 2.3% YoY.

USD/JPY

The US dollar is noticeably strengthening against the Japanese yen, updating local highs since December 20. The reason for the "bullish" dynamics is ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Japan, as well as the continuing uncertainty of the US-China trade negotiations. Statistics released on Friday showed a rise in the consumer price index in the Tokyo region in February by 0.6% YoY, after the growth of 0.4% YoY last month. The consumer inflation excluding fresh food rose by 1.1% YoY in February, which coincided with January data. At the same time, the January unemployment rate unexpectedly strengthened from 2.4% to 2.5%. In turn, Nikkei Manufacturing PMI in February showed steady growth from 48.5 to 48.9 points, which turned out to be better than analysts' forecasts. However, the figure is still below the psychological level of 50 points.

Oil

On Thursday, oil prices consolidated after moderate growth the day before, which was triggered by a sharp decline in stocks of petroleum products in the US warehouses. The development of corrective sentiment was caused by the weak macroeconomic indicators from China, which once again reminded the market of the risks of slowing global economy. The instrument is also pressured by continued tensions between the United States and China. On March 1, investors are awaiting the publication of the Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the United States. The last reports have indicated a reduction in their number, which, however, does not prevent the United States from increasing production rates to record levels.
 
LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The European currency ended the week ambiguously, correcting from local highs of February 5, updated on Thursday. On Friday, a large amount of interesting macroeconomic statistics from Europe and the USA was published. However, most of the data turned out to be below analysts' expectations, so there were no particular records. According to preliminary estimates, the core consumer price index in the Eurozone in February slowed from 1.1% YoY to 1.0% YoY. The consumer price index for the same period expectedly to accelerated from 1.4 to 1.5% YoY, which is still significantly below the target level of the ECB. Slightly pleasing were data on unemployment, which remained unchanged at 7.8% in January, and the Manufacturing PMI, which showed a decline from 50.5 to 49.3 points (0.1 points above the market expectations). On March 4, the euro is trading in a downward direction. Investors play on Friday statistics and expect the appearance of new drivers. On Monday, the March Sentix indicator of the Eurozone investor confidence is to be released, as well as February statistics on the manufacturers' price index.

GBP/USD

The pound fell markedly against the US dollar on Friday, continuing the development of the correction impulse formed the day before. Technical factors contributed to the development of the "bearish" dynamics, while the published macroeconomic statistics from the UK turned out to be ambiguous. Investors welcomed the increase in consumer lending in January from 0.683 billion to 1.095 billion pounds, which significantly exceeded analysts' forecasts of 0.800 billion. The number of approved mortgage applications in January also increased from 64.468 to 66.766K. Analysts expected to see a decrease to 63.400K. American statistics, published on Friday, was very weak. Only data on personal income in December was positive (1.0% MoM against the previous 0.3% MoM), while the rest of the figures were significantly worse than experts' forecasts. The ISM Manufacturing index in February fell from 56.6 to 54.2 points, while the forecast was 55.5 points.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar ended the past week with a confident decline, which led to an update of the local minima of February 12. On March 1, a downward trend was still observed, despite the publication of a large block of weak statistics from the United States. However, in the first half of the day, the Australian dollar was trading in an upward channel, helped by strong data from Australia and China. Thus, the RBA raw materials prices index in February showed a steady growth of 9.1% YoY after rising 6.5% YoY last month. Analysts were expecting the growth of 7.4% YoY. Chinese data reflected a steady growth in the Caixin Manufacturing PMI. In February, the figure rose from 48.3 to 49.9 points, while experts predicted 48.5 points. On March 4, the pair is also trading in downwards, despite the positive gap at the opening. Moderate support for the instrument is provided by published data on the dynamics of building permits. In January, the figure rose by 2.5% MoM after falling by 8.4% MoM in the previous month. In annual terms, the growth was an impressive 28.6% after a decline of 22.5% YoY last month. At the same time, traders reacted negatively to a slowdown in the growth of profits from the main activities of Australian companies. In 4Q2018, profits rose only by 0.8% QoQ after rising by 1.9% QoQ and expected dynamics of 3.0% QoQ.

USD/JPY

The US dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Friday, updating local highs of December 20. Macroeconomic statistics published on March 1 turned out to be ambiguous, however, investors trusted the dollar more, and interest in risk practically did not decline. The Japanese data indicated a moderate increase in the consumer price index in the Tokyo region, but also signaled a decrease in the consumer confidence index in February from 41.9 to 41.5 points, while the forecast was 41.6 points. The Manufacturing PMI in February rose from 48.3 to 49.9 points, which was significantly better than the forecast of 48.5 points.

Oil

Oil prices dropped markedly on March 1, retreating to local minima of February 26. The decline was due to continued growth in US production, as well as increased risks of global economic growth, which directly affects demand. OPEC’s efforts to reduce production, and new US sanctions against Venezuela, which is also a member of OPEC, are hindering a more confident decline in prices. Additional support on Friday was provided by the Baker Hughes report, which again indicated a reduction in active drilling rigs from 853 to 843 units per week.
 
LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

On Monday, the European currency showed a significant decline against the US dollar, returning to local minima of February 19. The reason for the strengthening of the negative dynamics was the news that the US and China are close to concluding a trade agreement after China offered to remove part of its import duties. The final agreement may be signed at the end of March at a special summit. On Monday, moderately optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone hampered a more confident decline in the euro. Sentix indicator of investor confidence in March rose from -3.7 to -2.2 points with a forecast of -3.1 points. In February, the producer price index rose by 0.4% MoM and by 3.0% YoY after falling by 0.8% MoM and rising by 3.0% YoY last month. On Tuesday, investors are focused on the statistics on business activity in Europe and the United States, January data on retail sales in the Eurozone, as well as a monthly report on the state of the US budget for January.

GBP/USD

The British pound began a new week with an active decline, continuing the development of the “bearish” impulse formed at the end of last week. The negative dynamics of the instrument was due to the strengthening of the US currency against the background of improved prospects for resolving the US-China trade conflict in late March. In turn, the pound was weakened by the macroeconomic statistics from the UK published on Monday. Construction PMI in the UK in February fell from 50.6 to 49.5 points, with a forecast of 50.3 points. The index dropped below the psychological level of 50 points for the first time since April 2018. Today, the pound is also trading in a downtrend. Investors have reacted negatively to the publication of the report on retail sales in the UK. In February, the BRC index showed a decline of 0.1% YoY after rising by 1.8% YoY last month. Analysts were expecting the growth of 0.1% YoY.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar shows a bearish trend, trading near local minima since February 12. Despite a number of good publications from Australia, investors have little interest in buying AUD, especially in view of improved prospects for resolving the US-China trade conflict. Moderate support for the Australian currency on Tuesday is provided by data on the activity index in the service sector, which rose in February from 44.3 to 44.5 points, as well as the trade balance deficit, which fell in Q4 from 10.8 billion to 7.2 billion Australian dollars. The focus of the Asian session is the RBA interest rate decision with the publication of related comments. As expected, the regulator left the rate at 1.5%, noting that current policies continue to support the Australian economy. RBA also kept the previous forecasts. By the end of the year, the Australian economy is expected to grow by 3%. The level of consumer inflation in the current year will be slightly below the target level of 2% and will be able to overcome it only by 2020.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues to grow moderately against the Japanese yen, trading near local highs updated on March 1. Investors are optimistic about the progress in the US-China trade negotiations and are awaiting the signing of final documents at the end of March. Against this background, there is a growing interest in risk in the market, which, of course, does not contribute to the strengthening of the Japanese currency. In turn, on Tuesday, the published Markit Services PMI supports the yen. In February, the figure rose from 51.6 to 52.3 points, which turned out to be better than analysts' forecasts of an increase to 52.1 points.

Oil

Oil prices showed moderate growth at the beginning of the week, receiving support from the continued decline in production from OPEC, as well as positive comments on the US-China trade negotiations. It became known that China is ready to start a number of structural economic reforms, as well as to cancel the response import tariffs for a number of American goods. The data on the dynamics of active drilling rigs in the USA last week, which fell to the lowest level in the last 9 months, provide moderate support to oil. On Tuesday, investors will focus on the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on oil reserves for the week of February 25.
 
LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The European currency continues to develop a downtrend against the US dollar, having updated local minima of February 19. Analysts still note a decline in demand for risk amid concerns about global economic growth. Yesterday, the Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang, speaking at the annual parliamentary meeting, noted that for the country's economy there are serious risks. The GDP forecast for 2019 was reduced from the previous 6.6% to 6-6.5%. At the same time, the government announced a tax cut, as well as an increase in investment in infrastructure. In turn, support for the euro on Tuesday was provided by strong macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone. Markit Services PMI in February increased from 51.2 to 52.8 points with a forecast of growth to only 52.3 points. The similar indicator for the manufacturing sector rose from 51.0 to 51.9 points, which also turned out to be better than the forecast of 51.4 points. Retail sales in January increased by 1.3% MoM and by 2.2% YoY, with analysts' forecasts of 1.2% MoM and 1.9% YoY.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed ambiguous dynamics on Tuesday, ending the day with almost zero results but updating the local minima of February 26. Moderate support for the pound was provided by good macroeconomic statistics from the UK. In particular, the Markit Services PMI in February rose from 50.1 to 51.3 points, while the forecast was for a decline to 49.9 points. At the same time, investors were cautious about the publication of the report of the Committee on Financial Policy, which reflected the increased risks for the British economy. The report also noted that the country's financial institutions are preparing for the toughest scenario of Brexit. During the Asian session on March 6, the pound again shows a negative trend. On Wednesday, investors will be focused on presentations by representatives of the Bank of England, Jon Cunliffe and Michael Saunders.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is showing a steady downward trend during the Asian session on March 6, updating local lows of January 4. The reason for the emergence of "bearish" dynamics was the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from Australia. In 4Q2018, GDP grew by 0.2% QoQ and 2.3% YoY, which was worse than analysts' expectations of 0.3% QoQ and 2.5% YoY. In Q3, the Australian economy grew by 0.3% QoQ and 2.8% YoY. The speech of the RBA head Philip Lowe, which took place a little earlier than the publication on GDP, did not have a significant impact on the Australian currency since it was mostly devoted to the situation in the housing and construction markets. On Thursday, investors are awaiting the publication of Australian statistics on retail sales, as well as on the dynamics of imports and exports in January.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed a slight increase against the Japanese yen on Tuesday, updating local highs of December 20. The dollar was supported by good macroeconomic statistics. ISM services PMI in February rose from 56.7 to 59.7 points, while the growth forecast was only 57.3 points. The similar indicator from Markit in February rose from 54.2 to 56.0 points, slightly worse than the forecast of 56.2 points. The IBD/TIPP index of economic optimism in March rose from 50.3 to 55.7 points, against the expectations of growth to 51.2 points. Sales of new houses in the USA in December increased by 3.7% MoM after rising by 9.1% MoM last month. Experts expected to see a negative trend of -8.7% MoM.

Oil

Oil prices have changed little on March 5, as market sentiment temporarily ended up in equilibrium. Quotes are supported by OPEC efforts to limit the supply. Earlier, it became known that Russia will try to accelerate the reduction of oil production in March, as reported by Energy Minister Alexander Novak. In turn, pressure factors are growing US output and fears of a slowdown in the global economy. Published yesterday, the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on oil reserves also contributed to the development of negative dynamics. As of February 25, oil reserves rose by 7.29 million barrels, after a decrease of 4.20 million barrels in the previous period.
 
LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The European currency is consolidating against the US dollar after a steady decline at the beginning of the week, which led to the renewal of local lows of February 19. On Wednesday, the euro was supported by technical correction factors, as well as by weak macroeconomic statistics from the United States. The ADP Employment Change showed growth by 183K in February after rising by 300K in January (however, the forecast was 189K). The US trade balance deficit increased in December and reached USD -59.8 billion, while analysts counted on USD -57.9 billion. Last month, the deficit was just over USD -50 billion. During the Asian session today, the instrument is trading in both directions, and investors are waiting for new drivers to appear on the market. The focus is on statistics for the Eurozone's GDP for 4Q2018, as well as the ECB decision on the interest rate with the accompanying press conference.

GBP/USD

The British pound shows an ambiguous trend against the US dollar, trying to reverse up after a steady decline, dropping the instrument to its lows of February 26. Uncertain prospects around Brexit continue to pressure the pound, while corrective moods are largely related to the technical factors. Also, investors reacted negatively to the publication of a weak ADP report on employment in the US, suggesting that Friday statistics on the US labor market may be worse than expected. There's no progress on Brexit negotiations. EU negotiator Michel Barnier reported yesterday the "constructive atmosphere", but it does not lead to any decisions.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar develops a slight increase during the Asian session, correcting after a significant decline yesterday. On Wednesday, the Australian currency was pressured by disappointing data on Australian GDP. The growth of the Australian economy slowed from the previous 2.8% YoY to 2.3% YoY, which turned out to be worse than analysts' expectations of 2.5% YoY. Today, the "Australian" is supported by new statistics, in addition to technical factors. The AiG Construction PMI in February rose from 43.1 to 43.8 points. Retail sales rose 0.1% MoM in January, after declining by 0.4% MoM last month. The trade surplus in January rose sharply from 3.7 billion to 4.5 billion Australian dollars, while analysts expected it to decline to 3 billion. The reason for such rapid growth was the steady increase in exports in January by 5.0% after a decline of 1.2% in December.

USD/JPY

The US dollar is correcting against the Japanese currency, retreating from the updated local maximums of December 20. The development of the “bearish” dynamics of the instrument is largely supported by the corrective sentiment on the dollar amid the publication of not very impressive statistics. In addition, the market expects progress in the US-China trade negotiations, which are close to concluding a final deal. On Wednesday, a certain pressure on the yen was made by the representative of the Bank of Japan, Yutaka Harada, who complained about the growing external risks and urged the regulator to additional policy easing if inflation does not reach the target level of 2%. Investors are preparing for Friday when there will be a large amount of interesting macroeconomic releases. In particular, Japan will publish annual GDP data for 4Q2018, the changes in wages, and household spending in January.

Oil

Oil prices continue to show ambiguous dynamics, remaining close to the highs of the beginning of the year. Yesterday, the instrument was pressured by published forecasts from major producers in the United States, reflecting the increase in the dynamics of shale oil. In addition, investors reacted negatively to the report of the US Department of Energy, which confirmed the dynamics of the previously published ADP report, and reflected a sharp increase in oil reserves on February 25 at 7.069 million barrels after declining by 8.647 million barrels over the past reporting week. The overall rate of oil production in the United States remained unchanged at 12.100 million barrels per day.
 
LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro showed correctional growth against the US dollar on Friday, retreating from local minima, updated the day before. At the end of last week, EUR was pressured by the ECB's revised forecasts for GDP and inflation in the Eurozone. In addition, the regulator announced the launch of the TILRO assistance program for credit institutions in September. There are no talks about raising the ECB rate, but if analysts had previously considered the end of the summer of 2019 as one of the possible options, now no action of tightening monetary policy is expected until the end of the year. On Monday, the euro is trading in both directions, and investors are expecting new drivers. The focus will be on statistics on industrial production and exports/imports in Germany in January. The USA will publish data on retail sales for the same period.

GBP/USD

The British pound remains under pressure and continues to develop a negative trend against the US dollar. There's almost no time left for the UK to make any changes to the agreement with the EU before the meeting of Parliament on March 12. If the parliamentarians reject the next version of the agreement, on March 13, a vote will be held to exit according to the "tough" scenario. If this vote ends in rejection, the Parliament will vote to postpone Brexit. Meanwhile, the domestic political situation in the UK is worsening now. According to British media reports, Theresa May is rapidly losing support among the cabinet ministers, and at present, she is supported by only two members of the government.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is trading in both directions, trying to correct after a decline last week. It is moderately supported by macroeconomic statistics from the United States published last Friday. The number of new jobs created by the American economy in February decreased from the previous 311K to 20K, while investors were expecting 180K. The average working week in February decreased from 34.5 to 34.4 hours. At the same time, the unemployment rate in February fell more strongly than forecasts, from 4.0% to 3.8%, and the average hourly wage in February rose by 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY with forecasts of 0.3% MoM and 3.3% YoY.

USD/JPY

The US dollar has stopped its decline against the Japanese yen and is trying to develop upward correctional dynamics. The ambiguous report on the US labor market, published on March 8, exerted only short-term pressure on the dollar, while investors are still optimistic about risk. In turn, the yen still receives support from Friday statistics from Japan. Investors were pleasantly surprised by the Japanese GDP for 4Q2018: it amounted to 1.9% YoY versus the previous 1.4% YoY, and household spending dynamics is growing steadily.

Oil

Oil prices showed ambiguous dynamics on Friday, having managed to update local lows of February 14. The reason for the strengthening of the "bearish" sentiment was the disappointing US report on employment, which again reinforced concerns about the slowdown in global economic growth. The pressure was also exerted by weak indicators from China, where exports in February fell by a record 20.7% YoY, which led to a sharp reduction in the trade surplus by almost 10 times. By the end of the Friday trading session, the instrument was able to play back most of its positions, supported by the Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the USA. For the week of March 8, the number of active drilling rigs decreased from 843 to 834 units, which is the third decline in a row.
 
LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro started a new week with moderate growth against the US dollar, continuing to regain last week's losses when the market reacted to a significant reduction in the ECB's economic growth and inflation forecasts for 2019. The macroeconomic background from Europe remains ambiguous. On March 11, investors were disappointed with the publication of German statistics. Industrial output in January decreased by 0.8% MoM after rising by 0.8% MoM in December. Analysts were expecting the growth of 0.4% MoM. YoY, the index slowed down from -2.7% to -3.3%. Exports in January showed zero dynamics after a growth of 1.5% MoM in December. In contrast, imports accelerated from 0.7% MoM to 1.5% MoM. This led to a decrease in the trade surplus from EUR 19.9 billion to EUR 18.5 billion.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed a sharp increase on Monday, amid news that Prime Minister Theresa May managed to agree with the European Commission on a number of amendments to the Brexit deal. In particular, May managed to settle differences on the Ireland border issue. The European Union will abandon the previously announced protective mechanism to ensure a free border on the island, and the parties will have to work out a final solution in 2020. The pound was also growing during the Asian session today, but now the “bullish” activity on the instrument has noticeably decreased. On Tuesday, investors are awaiting a vote in the British Parliament on an updated Brexit agreement. If the parliamentarians reject the agreement, on March 13 a vote will be held on withdrawal without an agreement. On March 14, there may be a vote for the postponement of Brexit.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar strengthened against the US dollar on March 11, retreating even further from the local lows updated late last week. The growth of the instrument was largely technical since there were no interesting macroeconomic statistics. In turn, US data provided moderate support for USD. In January, retail sales rose by 2.0% MoM after a decrease of 1.6% MoM in December. Analysts were expecting zero dynamics. Today the instrument is stable and is trading near the opening levels. A certain pressure on AUD is provided by macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Mortgage loans issued in January decreased by 2.6% MoM after rising by 6.0% MoM last month. Analysts had expected growth of 1.0% MoM. The National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence Index in February fell from 4 to 2 points, which was worse than analysts' forecasts. The index of conditions for the same period decreased from 7 to 4 points.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues to grow moderately against the Japanese yen, gradually recovering from a decline last week. The macroeconomic background remains favorable for the US currency, which determines the recovery of "bullish" sentiment. In turn, the yen lacks support amid sufficiently high investor interest in risk. On Tuesday, investors will focus on the US consumer inflation statistics for February. Analysts do not expect significant changes in the dynamics of growth of CPIs, which, in general, may further strengthen USD.

Oil

Oil prices rose moderately on March 11, responding to Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih optimistic statements that corrections to the current OPEC agreement are unlikely until June when the next meeting of the cartel will take place. Quotes are also supported by the Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms published last week, reflecting a steady decline in the number of drilling rigs. However, it still has little effect on the rate of oil production in the United States, remaining at record levels. Today, investors will focus on the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on oil reserves for the week of March 4.
 
LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro rose markedly against the US dollar on Tuesday, updating local highs of March 7. Growth was happening in view of the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics on consumer price dynamics from the United States. In addition, investors are still evaluating the report on the US labor market published at the end of last week. By the close of the day's session, EUR showed a correctional dynamics, which was a market reaction to the results of the British parliamentary vote on Brexit. As expected, despite Theresa May’s efforts and some concessions on the Irish border, parliamentarians rejected the agreement. Now, the country is waiting for a vote to leave the EU without the deal. If it fails (and the likelihood of this is extremely high), on March 14, Parliament will vote to postpone Brexit. On Wednesday, investors are awaiting publication of January statistics on industrial output in the Eurozone. Also, the market will be interested in speeches of the ECB representatives Yves Mersch and Benoit Coeuré.

GBP/USD

The pound fell sharply on Tuesday, departing from local highs of 28 February. The reason for the return of active sales were the results of voting in the UK Parliament on the country's withdrawal from the EU. There were 391 votes "against", while only 242 voted "for". The parliamentarians did not appreciate the efforts of Theresa May, which led to the fact that Brussels made some amendments to the agreement on the Irish border. On March 13, there will be another vote, about the withdrawal from the EU without the deal. This initiative is expected to also fail to be approved since it seems that parliamentarians are determined to keep the UK within the EU. On Tuesday, macroeconomic statistics from the UK provided some support for the pound. In January, GDP increased by 0.5% MoM after declining by 0.4% MoM in December. Analysts were expecting the growth of 0.2% MoM. Industrial output in January rose by 0.6% MoM after falling by 0.5% MoM last month.

AUD/USD

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar ended with moderate growth, which led to the update of the local maxima of March 6. Today, AUD is trading down, which is facilitated by weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Westpac consumer confidence index in March showed a decline of 4.8% MoM after rising by 4.3% MoM last month. The instrument is still pressured by the publication of statistics on mortgage lending and Business Confidence/Conditions indices on Tuesday.

USD/JPY

The US dollar is trading in both directions with the Japanese yen, playing out an ambiguous macroeconomic background and lasting uncertainty in the market. The pressure on the dollar on Tuesday was caused by weak macroeconomic statistics on consumer inflation in the United States. The Consumer Price Index in February rose by 1.5% YoY. In January, the prices increase was 1.6% YoY. The index excluding food and energy slowed from 0.2% MoM to 0.1% MoM. YoY, prices rose by 2.1% after growing by 2.2% last month. Today, the yen is pressured by data from Japan. The demand for machine-building products in January fell sharply by 5.4% MoM and 2.9% YoY, while analysts expected a decline of 1.7% MoM and 2.3% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday, supported by optimistic statements from Saudi Arabia, which regularly fulfills its obligations under the OPEC agreement and is trying to accelerate the process of reducing exports. Additional support is provided by supply disruptions from Venezuela, where there are problems with electricity supply. The report on oil reserves of the American Petroleum Institute (API), published on Tuesday, indicated a decrease in reserves by 2.58 million barrels after rising by 7.29 million over the previous period. On March 13, investors expect the publication of the final report on oil reserves in the USA from the Department of Energy.
 
LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro rose against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating local highs of March 5. Moderate support for the euro was provided by good macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone. Industrial output in January rose by 1.4% MoM after falling by 0.9% MoM last month. Analysts had hoped for the emergence of positive dynamics, however, they were counting on a more modest growth of 1.0% MoM. YoY, production still shows a negative trend of -1.1% (significantly higher than forecasts of -2.1%y). In turn, the published macroeconomic statistics from the USA has managed to please investors with an increase in the volume of orders for durable goods. In January, the indicator rose by 0.4% MoM after rising by 1.34% MoM last month. Analysts were expecting a decline of -0.5% MoM.

GBP/USD

The British pound rose significantly against the US dollar on Wednesday, rising to new record highs since June 14, 2018. After the failure of the vote on the Brexit deal in the British parliament on March 12, which caused the emergence of ambiguous trading dynamics, the pound is generally trading positively, hoping to postpone the exit from the EU. Yesterday, the Parliament also rejected the idea of a country leaving the European Union without the deal, which leads Prime Minister Teresa May to the only possible way out of the situation. On March 14, there will be the third vote, on the postponement of Brexit. Speaking yesterday, May once again called on parliamentarians to approve the current version of the deal with the EU, since, without an agreement, the UK would have to ask for a longer delay, and this can only lead to a general complication of the process. There are quite a few Brexit opponents, and they will definitely try to take advantage of this hitch to lobby for a re-referendum. In addition, in May 2019, regular elections to the European Parliament will be held.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed ambiguous dynamics on Wednesday and is actively declining today. The instrument is pressured by weak statistics on industrial output from China. In January, sales increased by 5.3% YoY after rising by 5.7% YoY last month. Analysts were expecting the growth of 5.56% YoY. The retail sales index in China in January rose by 8.2% YoY without showing the expected decline to 8.1% YoY. Moderate support for AUD was also provided by expectations of consumer price inflation in Australia. In March, the index rose by 4.1% MoM after rising by 3.7% MoM last month.

USD/JPY

The US dollar shows an upward trend against the Japanese yen. The US currency is still supported by fairly optimistic market sentiment and moderate investor interest in risk. Published on Wednesday, macroeconomic statistics from the USA failed to meet all expectations of analysts but proved to be quite good, unlike Japanese statistics. Nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft shipments, in January rose by 0.8% MoM after falling by 0.9% MoM last month. The experts counted on the growth of only 0.1% MoM. However, the producer price index in February rose by a mere 0.1% MoM and 1.9% YoY, with forecasts of 0.2% MoM and 1.9% YoY. Japanese statistics reflected a sharp decline in demand for machine-building products. In January, the indicator fell by 5.4% MoM and 2.9% YoY. Experts counted on -1.7% MoM and -2.3% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices are moderately rising, updating local highs of November 2018. One of the main growth factors was the EIA report on inventory dynamics published yesterday. As of March 8, oil and petroleum products in US warehouses decreased by 3.862 million barrels, after rising by 7.069 million over the previous period. Analysts expected growth of 2.655 million barrels. In addition, the report reflected a reduction in the overall production in the US from 12.100 million to 12.000 million barrels per day. During the Asian session on March 14, the instrument is trading in both directions, pressured by weak statistics on industrial output in China.
 
LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro ended the week with moderate growth. The instrument was able to update the local maxima of March 4, but, at the end of the daily session on Friday, investors returned to profit taking. EUR was supported by good data on consumer inflation in the Eurozone in February. As expected, the price index rose by 0.3% MoM and 1.5% YoY, against -1.0% MoM and 1.4% YoY. The core CPI remained at 0.3% MoM, coinciding with the forecasts. In turn, published macroeconomic statistics from the United States failed to meet market expectations. Industrial output in February rose by 0.1% MoM after declining by 0.4% MoM last month. Analysts were expecting growth of 0.4% MoM. New York FRB Manufacturing index in March fell from 8.8 to 3.7 points, with expectations of growth to 10.0 points. But the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan has managed to support the dollar. In March, according to preliminary estimates, the index rose sharply from 93.8 to 97.8 points while the forecast was 95.3 points.

GBP/USD

In the past few days, the pound shows ambiguous dynamics. Investors are still focused on Brexit. Last week, the Parliament rejected the next version of the agreement on the country's withdrawal from the EU, after which it voted against Brexit without the deal and for extending the action of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty until June 30. Prime Minister Theresa May still hopes to convince parliamentarians to approve the current version of the agreement until March 21, which will allow the UK to request the European Council to slightly extend the dates. Otherwise, if the transaction is postponed until June 30 or a later date, the negotiations may be significantly delayed, and a full-fledged political crisis will take place in the UK. Among the EU countries, there is still no consensus regarding the postponement of Brexit. This issue is expected to be discussed at the EU summit this week.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar returned to growth on Friday and continues to actively develop "bullish" dynamics today, updating local highs of March 1. AUD is supported by the tense situation around the US-China trade negotiations, as well as the possible refusal of North Korea from further negotiations on nuclear disarmament. Investors also follow the domestic political situation in the USA. March 15, it became known that President Donald Trump put a veto on Congress resolution, which was supposed to cancel the earlier state of emergency on the border with Mexico. Recall that in this way Trump expected to receive the required USD 8 billion for the construction of the wall, while only USD 1.375 billion was allocated for this in the budget.

USD/JPY

The US dollar shows ambiguous dynamic against the Japanese yen. After updating local highs on March 15, the dollar is trading downwards against the background of technical factors and uncertain prospects for the US negotiations with the PRC and the DPRK. Today, flat dynamics is observed, which is also characterized by an extremely low level of volatility. The yen is pressured by statistics on imports and exports from Japan. In February, exports dropped by 1.2% YoY after falling by 8.4% YoY last month. The decline in imports was 6.7% YoY after a drop of 0.8% YoY in January. The experts were expecting -5.8% YoY. Such a significant decrease in the indicator allowed the trade surplus to slightly increase in February to 339 billion Japanese yen, which turned out to be better than market expectations.

Oil

Oil prices showed a decline on Friday, which was a market reaction to new data indicating a slowdown in the global economy and growth in US production. However, by the end of the daytime session, the instrument managed to win back almost all the losses, in particular, due to the publication of the Baker Hughes report. For the week of March 15, the number of active oil platforms in the United States decreased from 834 to 833 units, which was the fourth decline in a row. The quotes are also supported by the actions of OPEC+. At the moment, the reduction in the volume of oil supplies is even slightly ahead of the initially agreed figures, which allows leveling the active growth of production in the United States. The next meeting of OPEC+, which will decide on the current agreement on limiting production, will be held on April 17-18.
 
LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro continues to grow moderately against the US dollar, updating local highs of March 4. On Monday, after the update of the highs, the euro declined significantly due to the strengthening of the US dollar index, but the "bullish" mood on the instrument remained. Moderate support for the instrument was provided by data on the Eurozone trade balance. In January, the balance surplus increased from 16.0 billion to 17.0 billion euros, which turned out to be significantly better than forecasts, which suggested a decrease to 13.2 billion. In turn, the American statistics was neutral. The NAHB retail housing prices index in March remained at 62 points, contrary to forecasts of growth to 63 points. On Tuesday, investors will be focused on a block of indicators on economic sentiment in the Eurozone and Germany from ZEW. Also, traders are interested in Construction PMI in the Eurozone in January.

GBP/USD

The British pound returned to decline on Monday, updating local lows of March 13. However, by the end of the day session, the instrument managed to win back almost half of the losses, and today's trading is going upwards. Yesterday, the pound was pressured by news that House of Commons Speaker John Bercow blocked Prime Minister Theresa May’s proposal to hold a re-vote on the current version of the agreement with the EU. Bercow stated that the government could not put the same proposal to the vote twice. Thus, May will have to ask Brussels for a longer delay, since the process of developing a new agreement will be extremely difficult. The process of postponement itself can also be very painful since this requires the unanimous decision of all EU member states. Today, investors will pay attention to the data on the UK labor market in January/February.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar shows moderate growth, receiving support from the weak positions of the US currency. Today, the instrument is trading in both directions, responding to the publication of the RBA minutes of March 5 and the dynamics of housing prices. In 4Q2018, the housing price index decreased by 2.4% QoQ and 5.1% YoY, which was noticeably worse than the data for the previous period (-1.5% QoQ and -1.9% YoY). Analysts had expected -2.0% QoQ and -0.4% YoY. The published RBA protocol did not have a significant impact on the instrument since it did not show anything new. As before, the regulator complained about the growing external risks, especially in Europe and Asia, however, noted the positive impact of rising oil and coal prices.

USD/JPY

The US dollar has returned to decline against the Japanese yen, updating local lows of March 14 today. The US currency is weakening amid increasing uncertainty caused by the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics. In addition, investors are anxiously awaiting news regarding the US-China trade negotiations. Recently, the media reported that the meeting of the two heads of state could be postponed from late March to April, but it has not yet received official confirmation. The data on industrial production in Japan published on Monday provided the yen with moderate support: in January, the index rose by 0.3% YoY against the zero dynamics of last month.

Oil

Oil prices continued moderate growth during the new week in the market, supported by the efforts of OPEC+. After the meeting of the OPEC+ member countries in Azerbaijan, it was decided to cancel the April meeting of the cartel, where, as expected, the future of the current agreement was to be discussed. Thus, it is actually extended until June, when a new meeting is scheduled. In addition, exporting countries report the toughening of the obligations under the agreement, which allows the market to remain stable in the context of growing US oil production. On Tuesday, investors will focus on the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on oil reserves for the week of March 15.
 
LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro rose rapidly against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating local highs of February 4. The reason for the emergence of a confident "bullish" dynamics was the weakening of the US currency amid the publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting. As expected, the regulator left the interest rate unchanged at 2.5%. At the same time, which turned out to be the most important, the Fed clearly stated that it is not going to make two planned rate hikes this year. In 2020, as before, the regulator expects only a one-time rate increase. The euro could not strengthen more confidently due to the uncertainty around Brexit, as there is still no consensus regarding the postponement of the UK exit from the EU.

GBP/USD

The British pound closed Wednesday's trading with a steady decline, updating local lows of March 13. The "dovish" rhetoric of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell practically did not support the weakened pound, although it contributed to the development of a minor correction. The instrument remains pressured by the rapidly delaying Brexit process, which threatens to exacerbate the internal political situation in the UK. Theresa May still expects a postponement to the end of June, while some representatives of the EU state the need for a longer delay. Some support for the pound yesterday was provided by the statistics on consumer inflation in the UK. In February, the consumer price index rose by 0.5% MoM and 1.9% YoY after the previous data of -0.8% MoM and 1.8% YoY. However, the core index in February slowed down from 1.9% YoY to 1.8% YoY.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar shows strong growth against the US one, supported by the soft position of the Fed and published macroeconomic statistics from Australia. In addition, the growth of AUD is promoted by the continuing uncertainty in the Brexit process and in the US-China trade negotiations. Today, the instrument is also trading in an uptrend, however, the "bulls" are facing significant resistance. Investors are focused on the report on the Australian labor market in February. The level of unemployment suddenly decreased from 5.0% to 4.9%. The last time the unemployment rate fell below 5% was in July 2011. At the same time, the employment level in February showed an increase of only 4.6K jobs, which is significantly lower than the growth of 39.1K last month. Analysts were expecting growth of 14.0K jobs.

USD/JPY

The US dollar fell sharply against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, retreating to local minima of February 27. The reason for the appearance of the "bearish" dynamics was the decision of the Fed to abandon the two planned rate hikes this year. Additional support for the yen was provided by the reduced investor interest in risk. In particular, the market reacted to the publication of updated forecasts from the Fitch agency. The forecast for the growth rate of the world economy in 2019 was revised from 3.1% to 2.8%. Next year, the global economy may grow by 2.8% instead of previous forecasts of 2.9%. Today the instrument is relatively stable, partly due to the closed markets in Japan on the occasion of a national holiday.

Oil

Oil prices continue to grow moderately, updating local highs of November 2018. Quotes are supported by data from the US Department of Energy, indicating a sharp reduction in oil stocks. As of March 15, reserves in US warehouses declined by a record 9.589 million barrels after declining by 3.862 million last week. Analysts predicted a slight increase by 0.309 million barrels. The "bullish" dynamics is also supported by the policy of OPEC+ and the expansion of US sanctions against Venezuela.
 
LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro showed a confident decline against the US dollar on Thursday, departing from local highs of February 4, updated the day before. The decline in the pair was largely due to technical factors of the correction of USD after a long decline. In addition, investors fix their profits before the weekend. Macroeconomic statistics from the United States, which supported the dollar on Thursday, include the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. In March, the figure rose sharply from -4.1 to 13.7 points, with a forecast of growth only to 4.5 points. Initial Jobless Claims for the week on March 15 decreased from 230K to 221K, which turned out to be better than market expectations (225K). Today, investors are focused on the statistics on business activity in the Eurozone (and separately France and Germany) and the United States. Also, the market expects representatives of the ECB Luis de Guindos and Yves Mersch to speak.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed ambiguous dynamics on Thursday, updating the local minima of March 11. There were lots of drivers for GBP, so the dynamics was extremely mixed. As expected, the Bank of England left monetary policy unchanged. The key rate remained at 0.75%, and the decision was made unanimously. The QE program has kept its volume of 435 billion pounds. In the accompanying statement, the BoE spoke a lot about the risks around Brexit, noting that it is now reasonable to take a wait-and-see attitude. Meanwhile, the EU has approved a deferment option for the UK. If parliament manages to agree on the deal, the final date will be postponed to May 22. Otherwise, the new deadline will be April 12.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is developing a corrective decline, retreating from local highs, updated on March 21. The reason for the appearance of the "bearish" dynamics of the instrument was an ambiguous report on the Australian labor market in February. Investors were optimistic about the decrease in the unemployment rate from 5.0% to 4.9% but were disappointed with the extremely weak growth in the employment rate - by 4.6K after 39.1K last month. Additional pressure was provided by an indicator of credit card spendings. In February, it rose by 6.4% YoY after rising by 6.9% YoY in January. Experts expected a slowdown of only up to 6.8% YoY.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed moderate growth against the Japanese yen on Thursday, recovering previously lost positions and retreating from the updated local minima of February 15. Technical factors contributed to the development of correctional dynamics for the dollar, as well as moderate optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the US, published the day before. Today, the instrument again is traded in both directions. Investors are focused on Japanese data on consumer prices and the Manufacturing PMI. The national consumer price index in February rose by 0.2%YoY after a similar increase in January. Analysts expected growth of up to 0.3% YoY. Excluding the price of fresh food, the index slowed down from 0.8% YoY to 0.7% YoY, while the forecast was 0.6% YoY. The Nikkei Manufacturing PMI in March remained at 48.9 points.

Oil

Oil prices showed a decline on Thursday, retreating from local maxima following the large-scale correction of the US dollar. Quotes are still supported by the confident position of OPEC+, which promises a further restriction of production volumes by the largest suppliers. Additional support comes from data indicating a sharp decline in US oil stocks. On March 22, in addition to statistics on business activity, Baker Hughes will report on active oil platforms in the United States.
 
LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR ended the week last week with a steady decline against USD, renewing its lows since March 12. The development of the “bearish” dynamics was largely due to poor macroeconomic EU statistics, as well as growing concerns about the Brexit process and the US-China trade negotiations, which contributed to a decrease in investors’ interest in risk. The statistics released on Friday reflected a decline in Composite Manufacturing Markit PMI in March from 51.9 to 51.3 points against a forecast of growth to 52.0 points. Services PMI fell from 52.8 to 52.7 points. In addition, investors paid attention to data from Germany. German Manufacturing PMI fell from 47.6 to 44.7 points against the forecasts of growth to 48.0 points. German Service PMI fell from 55.3 to 54.9 points.

Today, during the Asian session, the pair is growing slightly. Traders are awaiting the publication of a block of on German IFO business sentiment statistics.

GBP/USD

On Friday, GBP rose against USD, being corrected after a significant decline on Thursday. The currency was supported by the EU’s decision to grant the United Kingdom a postponement of Brexit until May 22. However, the EU has put forward several conditions. If the British Parliament does not approve the existing version of the agreement with the EU, the postponement will be valid only until April 12. The document also excludes the possibility of additional negotiations on the agreement. Thus, Theresa May has time until March 29 to convince parliament to accept the current version of the agreement. Meanwhile, in the UK, the political crisis continues to flare up, and a petition published on the Internet for the abolition of Brexit has gained over 5 million signatures. Increasingly, information appears in the media about the growing number of ministers in favor of Teresa May’s resignation.

AUD/USD

On Friday, AUD steadily declined, balancing the active growth of the instrument on Wednesday, March 20. The weakness of the currency is due to the growing uncertainty on the Brexit and the negotiations between the United States of America and China. Meanwhile, on Friday, during a television interview, Donald Trump noted that the negotiation process was going well and was likely to lead to an agreement. Trump also commented on the government’s intention to retain a number of protective duties after signing the agreement, stressing that this would not prevent the resolution of existing conflicts.

Today, investors expect a small block of American and Australian statistics. In the US, the Chicago Fed National Activity in February will be published, and Australia, the February import and export data will be released. Also, the traders are focused on the speech of the economic adviser to the head of the RBA Luci Ellis.

USD/JPY

On Friday, USD fell sharply against the JPY, renewing its lows since February 11, under pressure from poor US macroeconomic statistics. Thus, in March, Markit Manufacturing PMI decreased from 53.0 to 52.5 points, which turned out to be worse than the forecast of 53.6 points. Service PMI fell from 56.0 to 54.8 points, while the value was not expected to change. In turn, sales in the US secondary housing market in February rose sharply by 11.8% MoM after falling by 1.4% MoM last month. Analysts expected growth of + 2.2% MoM. Today, during the Asian session, the instrument is moderately reducing, and investors expect new drivers to appear on the market.

On Monday, the traders will focus on the publication of the Japanese activity index in all industries in January and the speech of the representative of the Bank of Japan, Yutaka Harada.

Oil

On Friday, oil prices declined moderately, continuing the development of the “bearish” impulse formed the day before. Investors avoid additional risk in the face of new signals of a slowing global economy. In addition, traders are concerned about the lack of visible progress in the US-China trade negotiations and the exacerbation of the political crisis in the UK amid problems with Brexit. Meanwhile, prices are still supported by a policy of further reducing oil production, taken by OPEC +. Friday’s Baker Hughes Oil Rig report also had a positive effect on the rate. During the reporting week, the number of US rigs decreased from 833 to 824 units, which is the fifth decline in a row.
 
LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

Yesterday, EUR rose steadily against USD, retreating from lows since March 12, renewed late last week. EUR was supported by an unexpectedly strong IFO Germany business sentiment data. The March German Business Expectations rose from 93.8 to 95.6 points while the forecast was 94.0 points. German IFO Business Climate Index jumped from 98.7 to 99.6 points, while analysts expected a decline to 98.5 points. German Current Assessment for the same period rose from 103.6 to 103.8 points, against the forecasts of a decline to 102.9 points. Today, during the Asian session, the instrument slightly increases, waiting for the appearance of new drivers on the market. On Tuesday, traders will focus on US housing market data. In Germany, April GfK German Consumer Climate will be released.

GBP/USD

Yesterday, GBP moved horizontally against USD and closed in the red zone. The currency is still under pressure from the uncertain situation around Brexit. Until the end of the week, Theresa May has to get agreement between the British parliament and the EU but parliamentarians are not likely to unite. The media gets information that an increasing number of ministers insist on the imminent resignation of the Prime Minister, and the idea of a repeated referendum is growing stronger among the public sentiment. Yesterday, in her speech in the British Parliament, Theresa May acknowledged that she did not find enough support but would try to look for additional ways to bring the current version of the agreement to the third vote in parliament. Some analysts believe that May may take extreme measures and will offer parliamentarians approval of the agreement in exchange for his resignation. If the UK fails to approve a deal with the EU until March 29, on April 12, the country will have to follow the “hard” scenario.

AUD/USD

Yesterday, AUD was actively growing against USD, balancing a decline at the end of the last trading week. The correction was due to a number of technical factors, while the macroeconomic background remained neutral. On Monday, a speech was made by the economic adviser to the head of the RBA, Lucy Ellis, which had no noticeable influence on the rate. Ellis's speech was devoted to household issues and in many respects repeated the main position of the regulator but she emphasized strong growth in the labor market. Over the past year, the employment rate has increased by more than 2%, while the unemployment rate has fallen below 5% for the first time in a long time (since 2011).

USD/JPY

Yesterday, USD was trading ambiguously against the JPY, renewing its lows since February 8. The uncertain dynamics was due to the lack of significant macroeconomic publications at the beginning of the week. In addition, investors are concerned about the process of negotiations between the US and China on trade issues. Despite the assurances of Donald Trump that negotiations are proceeding well, the market fears a repetition of the North Korean scenario. A new round is due this week. Today, during the Asian session, USD is growing uncertainly. The instrument is supported by a document published on the eve of by Special Prosecutor Robert Muller, in which it is noted that a special commission did not find evidence of Donald Trump’s collusion with the Russian authorities during the 2016 election period.

Oil

Yesterday, oil prices rose moderately, partially balancing the active decline at the end of last week. More confident gain is hampered by concerns about a slowdown in the global economy. In particular, investors fear that the negotiations between the US and China on a trade dispute may end in failure, which will have a negative impact on the Chinese economy. In addition, the markets were afraid of a possible recession in the US, as the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds continues to decline steadily. On Tuesday, investors are focused on US Housing Starts data the dynamics of Retail Sales, and also on the report of the American Petroleum Institute on oil reserves in the United States.
 
LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

Yesterday, EUR fell against USD, retreating to its lows since March 12, under pressure from technical factors and a further decline in investor interest in risk amid growing uncertainty in the market. In particular, traders have ambiguously reacted to the situation with Brexit in the UK after the British parliament adopted the amendment and took control of the country's exit from the EU. It is expected that today, in the parliament a vote on a number of issues with a discussion of possible options for the development of the situation will be held. Meanwhile, April GfK German Consumer Climate fell from 10.7 to 10.4 points against the forecasts of growth to 10.8 points, which was the lowest level since May 2017. During the Asian session on March 27, EUR is also weakening. Today, the investors are focused on the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi and a number of other regulator’s representatives, such as Peter Praet, Sabine Lautenschlager, Yves Mersch, and Luis de Guindos.

GBP/USD

GBP continues to trade ambiguously, sharply reacting to any changes around Brexit. Earlier this week, British parliamentarians adopted an amendment to the law, which allowed parliament to take control of the Brexit process (previously it was held by the government of Theresa May). Now the parliament can feel lighter and discuss the most varied exit scenarios. However, this can only help to clarify the preferences of parliamentarians, while there is no time and possibilities left to coordinate new changes with the EU. The UK must approve a version of the agreement by the end of the week; otherwise, on April 12 it will have to leave the EU without a deal.

AUD/USD

Yesterday, AUD rose steadily against USD, renewing its lows since March 21, after the publication of poor US macroeconomic statistics. Thus, Building Permits decreased by 1.6% MoM in February after decreasing by 0.7% MoM last month. Analysts had expected a slight improvement in the indicator to –0.6% MoM. Housing Starts index also fell from 1.273 million to 1.162 million in February, which was worse than the forecast of 1.213 million. March Richmond Manufacturing Index decreased from 16 to 10 points, while the forecast was 12 points. However, today during the Asian session, AUD is weakening, quickly losing positions gained yesterday. The instrument is under pressure from statistics from China, indicating a sharp decline in profits of a number of large Chinese enterprises in January-February by 14%. The profit of large industrial enterprises decreased by 24.2% over the same period.

USD/JPY

Yesterday, USD rose steadily against the JPY, partially balancing a sharp decline at the end of last week. The emergence of poor US macroeconomic statistics and the overall low level of traders’ interest in risk did not support JPY. Instead, investors focused on a summary of updated forecasts from the Bank of Japan. The document is of a generalizing nature and is published once a year after the next meeting of the regulator on interest rate issues. The Bank reaffirmed its commitment to a target inflation rate of 2%, which is one of the key parameters in choosing the vector of monetary policy. At the same time, the regulator devoted a significant part of the report to external economic risks, noting the slowdown in China’s economy and the uncertainty of the UK’s exit from the EU.

Oil

This week, oil prices are rising and approaching local highs, renewed a week ago, supported by market uncertainty, as well as interruptions in oil supplies from Iran, Venezuela, and several other countries. Yesterday’s weekly report of the American Institute of oil reserves in the United States reflected the growth of reserves by 1.927 million barrels at March 22. The previous report indicated a reduction in reserves by 2.133 million barrels. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of a report on energy reserves from the US Department of Energy. If the official statistic confirms the growth of the indicator, the quotes may be slightly corrected downwards.
 
LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

Yesterday, EUR fell against USD, retreating to its lows since March 12, under pressure from technical factors and a further decline in investor interest in risk amid growing uncertainty in the market. In particular, traders have ambiguously reacted to the situation with Brexit in the UK after the British parliament adopted the amendment and took control of the country's exit from the EU. It is expected that today, in the parliament a vote on a number of issues with a discussion of possible options for the development of the situation will be held. Meanwhile, April GfK German Consumer Climate fell from 10.7 to 10.4 points against the forecasts of growth to 10.8 points, which was the lowest level since May 2017. During the Asian session on March 27, EUR is also weakening. Today, the investors are focused on the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi and a number of other regulator’s representatives, such as Peter Praet, Sabine Lautenschlager, Yves Mersch, and Luis de Guindos.

GBP/USD

GBP continues to trade ambiguously, sharply reacting to any changes around Brexit. Earlier this week, British parliamentarians adopted an amendment to the law, which allowed parliament to take control of the Brexit process (previously it was held by the government of Theresa May). Now the parliament can feel lighter and discuss the most varied exit scenarios. However, this can only help to clarify the preferences of parliamentarians, while there is no time and possibilities left to coordinate new changes with the EU. The UK must approve a version of the agreement by the end of the week; otherwise, on April 12 it will have to leave the EU without a deal.

AUD/USD

Yesterday, AUD rose steadily against USD, renewing its lows since March 21, after the publication of poor US macroeconomic statistics. Thus, Building Permits decreased by 1.6% MoM in February after decreasing by 0.7% MoM last month. Analysts had expected a slight improvement in the indicator to –0.6% MoM. Housing Starts index also fell from 1.273 million to 1.162 million in February, which was worse than the forecast of 1.213 million. March Richmond Manufacturing Index decreased from 16 to 10 points, while the forecast was 12 points. However, today during the Asian session, AUD is weakening, quickly losing positions gained yesterday. The instrument is under pressure from statistics from China, indicating a sharp decline in profits of a number of large Chinese enterprises in January-February by 14%. The profit of large industrial enterprises decreased by 24.2% over the same period.

USD/JPY

Yesterday, USD rose steadily against the JPY, partially balancing a sharp decline at the end of last week. The emergence of poor US macroeconomic statistics and the overall low level of traders’ interest in risk did not support JPY. Instead, investors focused on a summary of updated forecasts from the Bank of Japan. The document is of a generalizing nature and is published once a year after the next meeting of the regulator on interest rate issues. The Bank reaffirmed its commitment to a target inflation rate of 2%, which is one of the key parameters in choosing the vector of monetary policy. At the same time, the regulator devoted a significant part of the report to external economic risks, noting the slowdown in China’s economy and the uncertainty of the UK’s exit from the EU.

Oil

This week, oil prices are rising and approaching local highs, renewed a week ago, supported by market uncertainty, as well as interruptions in oil supplies from Iran, Venezuela, and several other countries. Yesterday’s weekly report of the American Institute of oil reserves in the United States reflected the growth of reserves by 1.927 million barrels at March 22. The previous report indicated a reduction in reserves by 2.133 million barrels. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of a report on energy reserves from the US Department of Energy. If the official statistic confirms the growth of the indicator, the quotes may be slightly corrected downwards.
 
LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

On Friday, EUR declined steadily against USD, renewing its lows since March 8. The tense situation around Brexit and the protracted US-China trade negotiations continue to exert considerable pressure on the EUR. However, the course is supported by positive macroeconomic statistics from Germany. Retail sales rose by 0.9% MoM in February after rising by 2.8% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected a decline of 0.9% MoM. In annual terms, sales growth accelerated to 4.7% YoY from the previous +3.1% YoY, which was significantly better than market forecasts +2.8% YoY. March Unemployment Rate fell from 5.0% to 4.9% as expected, while the Unemployed Number fell by 7K after falling by 20K in February. Today, during the Asian session, EUR is trading upwards, and investors are awaiting the publication of statistics on EU March Consumer Inflation. The instrument is also supported by data from China. March Caixin PMI index strengthened from 49.9 to 50.8 points, which was noticeably better than analysts' expectations.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading in different directions, renewing the lows since March 11. On Friday, UK macroeconomic statistics provided some support for the course, while tensions around Brexit did not allow the instrument to grow more confidently. 2018 Q4 GDP rose by 0.2% QoQ and 1.4% YoY, which was slightly better than the market forecast +0.2% QoQ and +1.3% YoY. On March 29, another vote on Brexit deal was taken in the country's parliament. Despite all the efforts of Theresa May and the proximity of the deadlines set by the EU, the parliamentarians rejected the document again, which increases the risks of exit under the “hard” scenario. The country will have to leave the EU on April 12 if the agreement is not approved.

AUD/USD

On Friday, AUD rose moderately against USD, being corrected after a steady decline in the middle of the week. The course was supported by poor macroeconomic publications from the United States, as well as the expectation of a positive outcome of the US-China trade negotiations. Today, during the Asian session, which opened with an upward gap, the instrument is trading in different directions. A positive gap was due to the PRC decision to postpone the introduction of new import duties on a number of American goods and strong data from China. Thus, March Service PMI rose from 54.3 to 54.8 points, while the forecast was 54.1 points. The March NBS Manufacturing PMI strengthened from 49.2 to 50.5 points. Analysts predicted growth only to 49.5 points.

USD/JPY

USD continues to grow moderately against JPY, renewing its highs since March 20. Last Friday, the market received a fairly large number of key macroeconomic statistics from Japan and the United States. Japanese data pleased traders with a confident increase in the Tokyo CPI from +0.6% YoY to +0.9% YoY but disappointed with a slowdown in the growth of Retail Sales and Industrial Production in annual terms. Statistics from the United States reflected the continued growth in New Home Sales in February and an increase in Consumer Confidence in March. Among the negative aspects are poor statistics on Personal Income and Expenditures of citizens in January-February, which was worse than market forecasts. Today, during the Asian session, JPY is moderately supported by statistics on the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI. In March, the figure rose from 48.9 to 49.2 points, with the forecast of the preservation of the value.

Oil

On Friday, oil prices rose, renewing record highs since November 13, 2018. US sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan oil and the policy of OPEC+, aimed at a systematic reduction in oil production, significantly support the instrument. US pressure on the Venezuelan energy source leads to a gradual abandonment of it in a number of other countries, in particular, in Japan. Baker Hughes report on the active oil platforms also had a positive effect on quotes. During the week, the number of drilling rigs in the United States of America decreased from 824 to 816 units, which was the sixth decline in a row.