LiteForex Market Analytics

LiteForex analitics. NZD/USD: growth of investment interest in USD

Current trend

NZD against USD cannot come out of the wide side channel. For more than a month the pair has been moving within the range of 0.6850-0.6715 due to a decrease in trading activity and an ambiguous fundamental background.

Last week, strong US GDP data was published, but the labor market subsided, and the Fed did not go on to tighten monetary policy and raise rates. Despite this, USD gained additional demand, and the pair fell to a local minimum of 0.6725, having passed more than 100 points in a few days. At the end of the week, some of the losses were played out but the downward momentum persisted.

At the moment, there are no important releases. At the end of the week RBNZ will publish a decision on the rates, and in the US there will be data on the labor market and major indices, special attention should be paid to inflation.

Support and resistance

The pair has slowed but remains in the long-term downward trend. It is possible that the approach to the lower border will be decisive: either the pair will break it down and go to new local lows, or continue to trade in narrowing consolidation. The consensus forecast indicates an increase in inflation in the US: this may give USD support in view of the increased likelihood of an increase in rates. However, the downward movement is more likely, which means that an increase in the volume of short positions at the current level or at the upper border of the side channel is expected.

Technical indicators confirm the fall outlook: on D1 chart and above, MACD is already indicating the growth of volume of short positions, and Bollinger Bands are still pointing down.

Support levels: 0.6725, 0.6710, 0.6690, 0.6650, 0.6610, 0.6575, 0.6500.
Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6790, 0.6830, 0.6850, 0.6880, 0.6895.


Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the current level; pending orders can be opened from the nearest resistance levels of 0.6770, 0.6790 with targets at 0.6650, 0.6575 and the stop loss at 0.6920.

 
LiteForex analitics. Ethereum: general review

Current trend

After a serious fall last week, the cryptocurrency market stabilized. For a few days, the price of Ether is near 406.25. Investors are waiting for new drivers.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which owns the NYSE, announced work on the creation of a global platform called Bakkt. Through it, ICE plans to deposit the digital assets, and companies using Bakkt will be able to accept payments in cryptocurrencies.

Meanwhile, the reliability of digital assets continues to cause doubts. Last week, the SEC denied Winklevoss twins to create an ETF based on Bitcoin under the pretext that the currency is not sufficiently protected from manipulations. Studies of the The Wall Street Journal confirmed the regulator's concerns: there are organized groups of traders on the market that can significantly influence the prices of digital assets through coordinated purchases or sales. Such methods have long been banned in the traditional market, but continue to be operated on the cryptocurrency one.

Support and resistance

Technically, Ether continues to trade in the downward channel and in case of breakdown of the level of 406.25 (Murrey [1/8]) it can decrease to 375.00 (Murrey [0/8]) and 312.50 (Murrey [-2/8]). However, Stochastics leaving the oversold zone suggests the possibility of an upward correction. The key for "bulls" is the level of 437.50 (Murrey [1/8], the midline of Bollinger Bands) above the upper border of the descending channel. If it's broken out, targets for growth will be 500.00 (Murrey [4/8]) and 531.25 (Murrey [5/8]).

Support levels: 406.25, 375.00, 312.50.
Resistance levels: 437.50, 500.00, 531.25.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above 437.50 with the target at 500.00 and stop loss at 410.00.

Short positions may be opened from 395.00 with targets at 375.00, 312.50 and stop loss at 410.00.

Implementation time: 3-5 days.

 
LiteForex analitics. FTSE: technical analysis

FTSE, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is trying to turn down slightly below the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is growing, having broken out its longer MA.

FTSE, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is about to test from above its longer MA, having failed the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is falling, having broken down its longer MA.

Key levels

Support levels: 7710.0 (local lows), 7676.0 (local lows), 7650.0 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 7738.0 (local highs), 7790.0 (June highs), 7870.0 (local highs).

Trading tips

The price has retested its strong resistance near 7790.0. There is a chance of a downward correction.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 7710.0 with targets at 7676.0, 7650.0 and stop-loss at 7738.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 7790.0 with the target at 7870.0 and stop-loss at 7745.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

 
LiteForex analitics. Cryptocurrency Market Review

This week, the cryptocurrency market continued to correct downwards amid the new decisions of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). On Thursday, there was an attempt to growth, but in general the trend remains descending. At present, Bitcoin is traded around 6450.00 (–8.3%), Ethereum has fallen to 360.00 (–12.2%), Ripple declined to 0.3200 (–24.1%), Bitcoin Cash fell to the level of 590.00 (–20.1%), and Litecoin decreased to 61.26 (–21.0%).

The SEC and the uncertainty surrounding the ETF solution continue to weigh on the cryptocurrency market. This week, the regulator postponed to the end of September consideration of the issue of allowing the VanEck and SolidX companies to create a Bitcoin ETF, citing the need for a more thorough analysis of the applications submitted. According to experts, out of 10 companies that applied to the SEC for the creation of ETF, VanEck and SolidX had the greatest chance of obtaining a permit, since they closely cooperate with the Cboe exchange, where they planned to place shares. Therefore, investors were disappointed by the decision of the regulator, hoping for an early solution of the issue. On the other hand, the VanEck and SolidX trust application was not declined immediately, as was the case with the Winklevoss brothers' request a week earlier. Probably, there is a fight of opinions in the SEC, and there is still a chance to receive approval of the application for the trust. Two approvals are needed to introduce a new investment product to the market from the SEC: one is needed for the ETF creation and another one is needed for the right to trade its shares. The second permit should be obtained by Cboe, but consideration of its application was postponed by the SEC to the end of September.

Among other news of the market there is the intention of the company Opera Ltd. to launch a cryptocurrency wallet in the new version of the browser for the PC, because a similar product in Opera for Android was positively received by the cryptocurrency community. The research of the Wall Street Journal which confirmed the vulnerability of the digital assets market for fraud is also worth attention. The magazine found that there are organized groups of traders at the market that can significantly influence the prices of digital assets through simultaneous coordinated purchases or sales of currencies.

In general, the trend towards a decrease remains in the cryptocurrency market. Next week, prices may continue the downward movement.
 
LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Today, oil is trading around 67.00, Friday's growth has stopped.

The traders are focused on the US anti-Iran sanctions. At the end of last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said that there is no meeting with US officials planned in the near future, including the UN General Assembly to be held next month. The entry into force of US sanctions against the Iranian oil sector is scheduled for November 5. Refusal of dialogue means a continuation of the pressure of the USA on the importer countries to make them refuse of the Iranian oil? Which failed with China and Russia, but France and South Korea stopped cooperating with the Islamic Republic.

Last year, Iran exported about 2.1 million barrels of oil per day. Probably, the flow will not be completely blocked, however, the US administration expects to reduce supplies by 0.7–1.0 million barrels per day.

Support and resistance

At present, the key "bullish" level is 67.18 (Murrey [6/8]). In case of breakout, the price may rise to the levels of 67.96 (Murrey [7/8]) and 68.75 (Murrey [8/8]). However, according to the reversal of the Bollinger Bands and Stochastic downwards, the price is more likely to fall to 65.62 (Murrey [4/8]) and 64.84 (Murrey [3/8]) after the breakdown of the level of 66.40 in the mid-range of Bollinger bands.

Resistance levels: 67.18, 67.96, 68.75.
Support levels: 66.40, 65.62, 64.84.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 66.40 with the targets at 65.62, 64.84 and stop loss 66.80.

Long positions can be opened above the level of 67.18 with the targets at 67.96, 68.75 and stop loss around 66.90.

Implementation period: 3–5 days.

 
LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: instrument consolidates

Current trend

The US Dollar fell against the Canadian currency on Monday, 13 August, after renewing local highs since 24 July.

As there is a lack of significant economic releases, USD moves due to technical factors. It is supported by strong July US inflation data. Instead of the expected growth, the consumer price index remained at the same level of 2.9%, but the base consumer price index rose from 2.3% to 2.4%. Investors are confident that the regulator will raise the interest rate twice more. Most likely, this will happen at the September and December Fed’s meetings.

The key US data will be released on Wednesday, when the July data on retail sales and industrial production will be published. It is forecasted that the volume of retail sales may fall from 0.5% to 0.3%, and the index of industrial production can decrease from 0.6% to 0.3%. The implementation of forecasts can affect the USD negatively.

Support and resistance

The Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is showing a gradual reverse upwards. The price range is widening but cannot cope with high volatility on the market yet. The MACD is growing and keeping a quite strong buy signal (the histogram remains above the signal line). The Stochastic is growing but is approaching its maximum levels, suggesting the USD is overbought.

Current indicators’ readings do not contradict further Bullish trend development.

Support levels: 1.3100, 1.3061, 1.3000, 1.2961, 1.2900.
Resistance levels: 1.3156, 1.3200, 1.3258, 1.3300.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.3156 with targets at 1.3230, 1.3258 and stop-loss at 1.3100. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.3100 with the target at 1.3000 and stop-loss at 1.3150. Validity – 2-3 days.

 
LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading below the lower line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is testing the border of the oversold zone, beginning to form a Bullish divergence with the price. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

XAG/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is about to test its most recent support. The Composite has turned down as well, having retested its longer MA.

Key levels

Support levels: 14.60 (December 2015 highs), 14.30 (July 2017 lows), 13.95 (August 2015 lows).
Resistance levels: 15.05 (local highs), 15.25 (local highs), 15.60 (December 2017 lows).

Trading tips

The price is approaching the lower border of its long-term descending channel. The is a chance of an upward reverse.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 15.05 with targets at 15.25, 15.60 and stop-loss at 14.90. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 14.60 with targets at 14.30, 13.95 and stop-loss at 14.80. Validity – 3-5 days.

 
LiteForex analitics. Ethereum: general review

Current trend

After the decline of the beginning of the week, quotations of Ether have attempted to grow. On Wednesday, the instrument exceeded the 300.00 level, but is now trading around 281.25 (Murray [1/8]). It is difficult to say how strong the upward momentum will be, as the situation on the market remains unstable. Its total capitalization continues to fall – from early August it fell from 278 to 203 billion dollars, which indicates a serious outflow of investors after the refusal or transfer by SEC of a number of applications for the creation of ETFs based on Bitcoin. The share of ETH in the total market capitalization is also decreasing, from 15.7% in early August to 14.1% at present.

As for the news of the crypto-currency market it is worth noting the continuation of the "migration" of digital companies to Malta, since this country now has the friendliest legislation in relation to digital assets. Following the major exchanges Binance and OKEx, ZB.com, the fifth largest digital exchange in the world, opened its office on the island. The company expects to launch a new platform and exchange crypto currency for fiat money.

Support and resistance

At present, the price has risen above the level of 281.25 (Murray [1/8]) and can continue corrective growth to 343.75 (Murray [3/8]) and 375.00 (Murray [4/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands, the upper border of the channel). The Stochastic exits the oversold zone. However, the potential of the downtrend is not yet exhausted, which is confirmed by the reversal of the Bollinger Bands down and the MACD histogram in the negative zone. The key for the "bears" is the 250.00, its breakdown will insure a decrease to 218.75 (Murray [-1/8]) and 187.50 (Murray [-2/8]).

Support levels: 250.00, 218.75, 187.50.
Resistance levels: 312.50, 343.75, 375.00.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at 313.00 with targets at 343.75, 375.00 and stop loss in the area of 290.00.

Short positions should be opened below the level of 250.00 with targets of 218.75, 187.50 and a stop loss at 280.00.

Term of realization: 3-5 days.

 
LiteForex analitics. Cryptocurrency Market Review

This week, the cryptocurrency market had mixed dynamics. The decline in the beginning of the week was replaced by a corrective growth, as a result of which a significant part of losses was won back. Bitcoin is currently trading around 6500.00, Ethereum – at 300.00, Ripple – at 0.2930, Bitcoin Cash – at 535.00, and Litecoin – at 56.50.

The total capitalization of the market this week continued to decline and decreased from 214 to 203 billion dollars. At the same time, the share of altcoins volume in the market is decreasing, and the share of bitcoin has increased from 51% to 53%. It becomes clear that some investors are leaving the market, and some are switching to Bitcoin, hoping for a positive decision by the SEC to register ETF funds in September.

As for the news of the market, the European Union intends to introduce new ICO rules, which will be implemented through crowd-funding platforms. This is stated in the documents published by the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. It is planned that the organizers of the new ICO, if they expect to collect more than 8 million euros, should work within the framework of European securities legislation. Thus, new ICO products can be equated with the EU in securities. This position is close to the position of the US SEC, whose members also tend to believe that most of the cryptocurrencies are qualitatively securities.

This week it became known that the Jamaican stock exchange intends to offer its clients cryptocurrencies as trading assets by the end of this year, for which the appropriate platform is being developed. And the Securities and Exchange Commission of Thailand officially authorized the work of five crypto-exchanges and two dealers in the country. In addition, the transfer of large digital companies to Malta continues, the legislation of which is currently the friendliest with respect to cryptocurrencies. Following the major exchanges Binance and OKEx, ZB.com, the fifth largest digital exchange in the world, opened its office on the island. The company expects to launch a new platform and exchange cryptocurrency for fiat money.

In general, the continuation of the upward correction may continue next week, but the medium-term downtrend is likely to continue.
 
LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Oil quotes have been growing since the middle of last week on reports of upcoming US-China trade talks on August 21-22.

Negotiations can resolve at least some of the contentious issues, although experts warn that there would be no quick results. Quotes are also supported by the probplem of oil transportation from the Perm oil basin. In this regard, the number of active oil rigs in the US for more than two months is within the range of 858-869 units, which is much lower than the peak values of 2014, when it exceeded 1600 units.

The current growth is likely to be limited, as long-term pressures on the market remain. Investors are still concerned about the trade war, which could cause a decrease in oil consumption in the two leading world economies. But the possible shortage after anti-Iran sanctions will be covered by Saudi Arabia, which was confirmed by the country's energy minister Khalid Al-Falih.

Support and resistance

Technically, the price tends to the upper border of the downward channel near the level of 73.43 (Murrey [3/8], the midline of Bollinger Bands). After its breakdown, growth can be continued to 75.00 (Murrey [4/8]) and 76.56 (Murrey [5/8]). The consolidation of the price below 71.87 will lead to the decline to the levels of 70.31 (Murrey [1/8]) and 68.75 (Murrey [0/8]).

Technical indicators show growth: Stochastic reversed up, MACD histogram is reducing in the negative zone. However, the growth potential is seen as limited.

Support levels: 71.87, 70.31, 68.75.
Resistance levels: 73.43, 75.00, 76.56.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened below 71.87 with targets at 70.31, 68.75 and stop loss at 72.20.
Buy positions may be opened above 73.43 with targets at 75.00, 76.56 and stop loss at 72.10.

Implementation time: 3-5 days.

 
LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: the instrument is consolidating

Current trend

Yesterday, oil prices stayed unchanged against the ambiguous USD dynamics.

The prices were supported by the Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count index, which stayed at the level of 869 units due to the transportation problems from the Perm oil basin. Also, the prices are positively influenced by the comments of Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih, who noted that the state oil company Saudi Aramco is doing its best to meet the growing global demand for oil. The potential for the current growth in oil prices is restricted.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moderately falling. The price does not change, practically not reacting to the attempt of growth of the instrument in the short/ultra-short term. MACD indicator reversed upwards, forming a new buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is directed upwards and is approximately in the center of its working area.

The current indicators’ readings do not contradict the further development of corrective growth in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 65.60, 66.48, 67.00, 67.50.
Support levels: 65.00, 64.50, 63.78.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 65.60 with the target at 67.00 and stop loss 65.00.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 65.00 with the at targets 63.78–63.50 and stop loss 65.60.

Implementation period: 2–3 days.

 
LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: technical analysis

XAU/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is correcting up from the lower line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is growing, having left the oversold zone. The Composite is approaching its recent resistance region.

XAU/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains below the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed down. The RSI is turning down, having formed a Bearish divergence with the price. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

Key levels

Support levels: 1189.0 (local lows), 1174.0 (local lows), 1160.0 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 1217.0 (local highs), 1235.0 (December 2017 lows), 1259.0 (February 2017 highs).

Trading tips

The price has broken down its long-term ascending trendline. The fall could continue.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1189.0 with targets at 1174.0, 1160.0 and stop-loss at 1198.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1217.0 with targets at 1235.0, 1259.0 and stop-loss at 1204.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

 
LiteForex analitics. AUD/USD: the Australian dollar is declining

Current trend

Yesterday, AUD slightly decreased against USD, stepping off the local highs, updated earlier.

The traders are focused on Wednesday’s speech of the Deputy Head of the RBA Guy Debelle and on Q2 Construction Work Dore release. The head of the bank noted that the fall of inflation is due to the increase in competition in the retail sector and the slow growth of salaries. Currently, the regulator believes that in the next few years, the consumer price index will reach 2.25% against the backdrop of GDP growth and the average wage in the country. As for Construction Work Dore indicator, it exceeded forecasts and grew by 1.6% after growing by 2.4% in the previous period.

Today, AUD is falling sharply due to a possibility of the resignation of Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, as several ministers announced their withdrawal.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moving flat. The price range narrows from above, reflecting the emergence of mixed trading dynamics. MACD indicator has reversed downwards, keeping the buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic reversed downwards from its highs, signaling that AUD is overbought.

It is possible to further develop the downtrend in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.7322, 0.7346, 0.7362, 0.7380.
Support levels: 0.7290, 0.7260, 0.7222, 0.7200.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a rebound from the level of 0.7290 with the targets at 0.7346–0.7362 or 0.7380 and stop loss 0.7260–0.7250.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7290 with the targets at 0.7222–0.7200. Stop loss is 0.7322.

Implementation period: 2–3 days.


 
LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

On Friday, the pair grew in view of an inconclusive end to China-US trade negotiations and Jerome Powell's ambiguous statements.

The White House only said that the parties exchanged views on how to achieve a balance in economic relations. Chinese representatives called the talks constructive. According to Bloomberg, the next meeting can take place no earlier than November. Speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole has caused mixed reactions from investors. The head of the regulator confirmed that the pace of the US economic growth will remain the same, so the policy of raising interest rates will continue. However, according to Powell, there are no clear signs of inflation growth accelerating above 2.0%. In this regard, investors have doubts that the regulator will go to four rate increases this year. In addition, the tightening of monetary policy is criticized by President Donald Trump and some FOMC members agree with his position. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis, James Bullard, in an interview with CNBC, stated the expediency of stopping the rate hike since inflationary pressures do not increase.

Support and resistance

Now, the price has risen above the level of 1.1596 (Murrey [7/8]) and can continue rising to 1.1718 (Murrey [8/8], the upper line of Bollinger Bands). However, Stochastic's reverse in the overbought zone indicates the probability of a downward correction to the levels of 1.1474 (Murrey [6/8]) and 1.1352 (Murrey [5/8]).

Support levels: 1.1596, 1.1474, 1.1352.
Resistance levels: 1.1718, 1.1840.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened if the price consolidates below 1.1596 with targets at 1.1474, 1.1352 and stop loss at 1.1630.
Buy positions may be opened from 1.1640 with targets at 1.1718, 1.1840 and stop loss at 1.1600.

Implementation time: 3-5 days.


 
LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Quotes are growing and the price of Brent Crude oil rose above 76.56.

Oil is supported by the reduction in the US rigs from 869 to 860 units (according to Baker Hughes), the expectation of a further reduction in oil reserves by API and EIA, and a new US-Mexico trade agreement. On Monday, it became known that the NAFTA would be replaced by a new agreement. US and Mexico were the first to formalize it but Canada is expected to join it soon and, thus, NAFTA will be restored on new terms. It is known that Mexico will expand purchases of food in the US, and will also increase the share of cars produced by workers with wages of at least USD 16 an hour to 45% (to equalize the value of production with US enterprises).

In the evening, the market is waiting for the weekly API report on the US crude oil reserves. If the trend to decline continues (the last time it was 5.17 million barrels), prices may start to grow.

Support and resistance

The quotes are above 76.56 (Murrey [5/8]) and can go up, to 78.12. If the price consolidates below 76.56, correction to 75.00 (Murrey [4/8]) and 73.43 (Murrey [3/8], the midline of Bollinger Bands) is possible.

Technical indicators show continued growth: Bollinger Bands diverge, confirming the uptrend, MACD histogram has moved to the positive zone and formed a buy signal, Stochastic is in the overbought zone moving horizontally.

Support levels: 76.56, 75.00, 73.43.
Resistance levels: 78.12, 79.68.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened from 77.00 with the target at 78.12 and stop loss at 76.60.
Sell positions may be opened below 76.56 with targets at 75.00, 73.43 and stop loss at 76.90.

Implementation time: 3-5 days.


 
LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Oil prices are rising and reached a maximum since July at 77.82, supported by yesterday's US statistics. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change reflected the decrease of “black gold” resources by 2.566 million barrels, and gasoline reserves by 1.55 million barrels. The production level stayed at the level of 10.9 million barrels per day. In response, investors are actively purchasing oil futures.

On Friday, market participants will pay attention to Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count release. Last week, the number fell to 860 from 869 units. If tomorrow's report reflects the further decrease in the indicator, the instrument will receive substantial support.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators reflect the maintenance of growth potential. There is no sign of correction. Bollinger bands are directed upwards. MACD is stable in the positive zone, keeping the buy signal. Stochastic is in the overbought zone and is pointing down, but it does not give a clear reversal signal.

At the level of 78.12 (Murrey [+2/8]), there is a strong support level, from which a reversal and formation of a downward correction are possible. The breakout of the level will let the price grow to the area of 79.00–80.00.

Resistance levels: 78.12, 79.00, 80.00.
Support levels: 76.56, 75.00, 73.43.

Trading Tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 78.12 with the targets around 79.00 and stop loss at the level of 77.80.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 77.40 with the targets around 76.56 and stop loss at the level of 77.70.


 
LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: general review

Current trend

Quotes of the instrument grow amid yesterday's weak data on Canada's GDP.

GDP growth MoM stopped and amounted to 0.0% in July against 0.5% a month earlier. YoY the indicator in Q2 was higher than the previous values and amounted to 2.9%, but an increase of 3.0% was expected. Investors reacted to this by active sales of the Canadian currency, so the rate jumped to the level of 1.3022. CAD is also pressured by the uncertainty of the country's position regarding the trilateral trade deal with the US and Mexico. Canada's accession to the deal looks most likely, but there's no official position of the government on this issue so far. The final decision is expected on Friday.

If Canada agrees to a deal, CAD will receive support, and we will see a decline in the instrument. The refusal will push the quotes even higher.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators on H4 chart generally indicate the preservation of growth potential. Bollinger Bands diverge, indicating an active continuation of the current trend. MACD histogram is actively declining in the negative zone, forming a buy signal. Stochastic's lines are directed upwards.

Support levels: 1.3000, 1.2970, 1.2939, 1.2908.
Resistance levels: 1.3031, 1.3061, 1.3092, 1.3122.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened above the level of 1.3031 with targets at the area of 1.3061-1.3092 and stop loss at 1.3010.
Sell positions may be opened below 1.3000 with targets at 1.2970-1.2939 area and the stop loss at 1.3020.

Implementation time: 1 day.

 
LiteForex analitics.EUR/USD: the Euro remains under pressure

Current trend

EUR showed a significant decline against USD noting a new local low since August 24.

EUR is under pressure of US President Trump’s commentaries and poor inflation statistics. In an interview with Bloomberg Trump said that the EU's proposals on duties on cars are not good enough for the US. Probably, the EU will need new concessions; otherwise, it is possible that the 25% duties on EU-imported cars will be introduced in the US.

Friday’s preliminary August inflation data were poor. The consumer price index fell from 2.1% to 2.0% and the core consumer price index fell from 1.1% to 1.0%.

Today, EU Markit Manufacturing PMI will be released. The indicator is expected to remain unchanged at the level of 54.6 points in August.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is going down having formed new sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is steadily declining, approaching its minimum levels, which indicates the risks associated with oversold euro.

Technical indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bearish" trend.

Resistance levels: 1.1621, 1.1653, 1.1718, 1.1749.
Support levels: 1.1573, 1.1526, 1.1500, 1.1473.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the rebound from the support level of 1.1573 with the subsequent breakout of 1.1621. Take profit — 1.1718, 1.1749 or 1.1789. Stop loss — 1.1560 or 1.1750. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

A breakdown of 1.1573 may be a signal to further sales with target at 1.1500 or 1.1473. Stop loss — 1.1620. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

 
LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: the price is under pressure

Current trend

Yesterday, silver prices declined slightly, renewing a local minimum since August 16. On Monday, the US markets were closed due to the national holiday, so investors fully concentrated on the European and Asian releases.

Monday’s August EU Manufacturing PMI release remained at the same level of 54.6 points. The corresponding German index fell from 56.1 to 55.9 points. The Japanese indicator remained at the same level of 52.5 points, but the Chinese PMI Caixin in August fell from 50.8 to 50.6 points.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands unfold horizontally. The price range is expanding but still remains uncomfortable for the development of downward trend dynamics. MACD indicator decreases, keeping a weak sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic, approaching its lows, reversed horizontally, reflecting the risks of the corrective silver growth in the short and/or ultra-short term.

It is better to wait until the signals are clear and keep current short positions in the short term for some time.

Resistance levels: 14.48, 14.60, 14.79, 14.89, 15.00.
Support levels: 14.40, 14.24, 14.17.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the rebound from the level of 14.40 and breakout of the levels of 14.48–14.50 with the targets at 14.70–14.79 and stop loss 14.35.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 14.40 with the targets at 14.24 or 14.17–14.10 and stop loss 14.45–14.55.

Implementation period: 2–3 days.

 
LiteForex analitics. NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar is under pressure

Current trend

Yesterday, NZD fell significantly against USD, renewing the minimum since February 2016.

Investors are focused on American foreign trade. Negotiations are going between the United States and Canada on the accession of the latter to the new terms of the NAFTA (agreed earlier by the US and Mexico). However, there's no compromise yet. The market also expects that in the near future, President Trump can introduce increased duties on Chinese goods with a total value of another USD 200 billion. This, surely, will not remain without the answer of the PRC, and in the end, both leading world economies will suffer.

On Tuesday, USD was also supported by US releases. August Manufacturing PMI increased from 54.5 to 54.7 points. The corresponding ISM index accelerated even more: from 58.1 to 61.3 points.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands move horizontally. The price range is expanding, but not as fast as the "bearish" trend develops. MACD indicator decreases, keeping a strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic reached its lows and reversed horizontally. The indicator reflects than NZD is oversold in the short term.

The development of corrective growth is possible.

Resistance levels: 0.6560, 0.6592, 0.6618, 0.6650.
Support levels: 0.6543, 0.6529, 0.6500.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the levels 0.6560–0.6570 with the targets at 0.6630–0.6650 and stop loss 0.6530–0.6520.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level 0.6529 with the targets at 0.6500 or 0.6480–0.6470 and stop loss 0.6560.

Implementation period: 2–3 days.