LiteForex Market Analytics

USD/CAD: general review

Current trend

Since the end of the previous week Canadian currency has been actively strengthening against USD due to positive data from the Canadian labor market. Moreover, CAD is supported by the statement of chief deputy chairperson of the Bank of Canada Caroline Wilkins made on Monday, in which the issue of increasing the interest rate was first mentioned. The reaction of the investors was to be expected. At first the pair USD/CAD dropped below the year trend line (blue) and then broke through the level of 1.3300 that is considered an important border between "bullish" and "bearish" tendencies. Yesterday after the decision of FOMC on the interest rate and folow-up press conference USD started to strengthen and the pair USD/CAD to correct.

The data on the unemployment rate (the number of jobless claims is expected to decrease) and industrial activity index by FRB Philadelphia (expected to fall by 14 points) are due at 14:30 (GMT+2). The volume of US industrial output will be published at 15:15 (GMT+2) (the indicator is expected to fall by 0.8%), and the volume of purchases of long-term securities (to decrease by $22.5 bln) —at 22:00 (GMT+2).
The pair is expected to continue consolidation in the next couple of days.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.3510, 1.3410, 1.3380, 1.3300.
Resistance levels: 1.3220, 1.3160, 1.3080, 1.3000.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 1.3300, 1.3380 and stop-loss at 1.3220.
Alternatively sell positions may be opened from the level of 1.3220 with targets at 1.3160, 1.3080 and stop-loss at 1.3280.
The period of implementation is 2 days.

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CAC: technical analysis

CAC, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains above the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed up. The RSI has formed a “double bottom” reverse pattern. The Composite is about to test its longer MA and keeps forming a Bullish divergence with the price.

CAC, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is growing towards the upper line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains just below the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are turning down. The RSI is growing having broken out its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

Key levels

Support levels: 5155.0 (April gap), 5090.0 (March highs), 5078.0 (June 2015 highs).
Resistance levels: 5314.0 (local highs), 5367.0 (June highs), 5400.0 (local highs).

Trading tips

The price is approaching its short-term descending trendline. Its breakout would lead to a growth continuation.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 5314.0 with targets at 5367.0, 5400.0 and stop-loss at 5275.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened form the level of 5155.0 with targets at 5090.0, 5078.0 and stop-loss at 5190.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

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GBP/USD: general review

Current trend
Last week the Bank of England announced its decision on the interest rate. The value of 0.25% remained unchanged, but in the comments on the fiscal policy the representatives of the Central Bank announced not only positive aspects but also risks for the UK in view of the upcoming Brexit negotiations. At the same time, BOE report on the monetary policy strengthened the pair after it became known that three out of eight members of the committee voted for the increase of the rate.
Within the next week market participants may expect high volatility in the trading instrument as Brexit negotiations are going to be complicated.
No important releases are expected from the USA or UK today, therefore the pair is likely to consolidated with a slight "bullish" tendency. The key even of the current week will be the release of the data from the US Department of Labor on the number of initial jobless claims.

Support and resistance
On D1 chart the pair is trading in the lower part of Bollinger Bands. The indicator has reversed downwards while the price range has slightly narrowed confirming the turn from the upward trend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone with its volumes reducing keeping the sell signal. Stochatic does not give clear signal for entering the market.
Support levels: 1.2575, 1.2665, 1.2735.
Resistance levels: 1.2845, 1.2905, 1.2975, 1.3015.

Trading tips
Short positions could be opened from the level of 1.2835 with targets at 1.2665 and stop-loss at 1.2890. The period of implementation is 2-4 days.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.2865 with target at 1.2980 and stop-loss at 1.2810. The period of implementation is 2-4 days.


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Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend
Oil prices began to fall on May, 25, after the OPEC decision to prolong the oil production limitation Agreement. In the end of the last week the price met the strong support around 46.70. The reaction of the oil price around this year minimum will possibly determine the further price movement in the nearest future. The active development of the shale oil production in the USA is one of the main factors, which are weakening the oil. Besides, the OPEC Agreement leads to the gradual lowering of the world oil resources. In his last speech the Saudi Arabia Industrial and Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih was confident, that in the 4th quarter 2017 the oil price and recourses will reach the needed balance.
The EIA Crude Oil Stocks change data, which are due at 16:30 (GMT+2) tomorrow, will clear the further development of the situation. The amount of the resources is expected to lower. The Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count, due at 19:00 (GMT+2) on Friday, is an important issue, too.
Today at 14:00 (GMT+2) and at 21:00 (GMT+2) the USA FRS Members Fischer and Kaplan speeches will be published. According to the last FRS Members commentaries and the Head of the FRS Janet Yellen speech rhetoric, they are trying to support the USD verbally despite the macroeconomic reality.
The development of the correction is expected in the nearest two days.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 46.70, 45.80, 45.00, 44.10.
Resistance levels: 47.30, 48.50, 50.00, 51.50.

Trading scenario
Open long positions at the current price with the target at 48.50, 50.00 and stop loss at 46.90.
Open short positions at the level of 46.70, with the target at 45.80, 45.00 and stop loss at 47.40.


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AUD/USD: general review

Current trend
In the end of the previous week AUD consolidated in view of unexpectedly positive data from the Australian labor market. The pair AUD/USD broke through the psychologically important level of 0.7500 and the upper border of the 6-weeks upward channel (green line in H4). After that the statements by FOMC members strengthened USD, and the pair consolidated between 0.7570 and 0.7630.
Yesterday Australian dollar received support from the Reserve Bank of Australia that discused threats to financial stability in its meeting.
Secondary housing market statistics from the USA is due today at 16:00 (GMT+2), and a slight decrease of the outlook is expected. The data on the reserves of petrochemicals (with an expected drop in the volumes of crude oil and gasoline) are due at 16:30 (GMT+2).
The main forecast for the next two days is the weakening of the pair.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 0.7530, 0.7490, 0.7440.
Resistance levels: 0.7570, 0.7630, 0.7680.

Trading tips
Short positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 0.7530, 0.7490 and stop-loss at 0.7590.
Alternatively, long positions may be opened from the level of 0.7570 with targets at 0.7630, 0.7680 and stop-loss at 0.7510.



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GBP/USD: general review

Current trend
The pair GBP/USD continues to show instability in view of political events in the UK. Yesterday the pair dropped during early trading having tested the support level 1.2600. But after the promises of Prime Minister Theresa May to organize the Brexit procedure as mildly as possible, the price moved to 1.2700. Due to high volatility it is impossible to forecee futher movements of the price, and current marker instability may remain until the beginning of Brexit negotiations.
Today in the absence of important macroeconomic releases from the UK and the USA attention should be paid to technical indicators.

Support and resistance
On the H4 chart the pair is trading between the middle and lower lines of Bollinger Bands and is showing side movement. MACD histogram is in the negative zone with the sale signal weakening. Stochastic is in the neutral area showing side movement and does not give a clear signal for entering the market.
Support levels: 1.2635, 1.2600.
Resistance levels: 1.2700, 1.2750, 1.2780, 1.2800.

Trading tips
Short positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 1.2600 and stop-loss at 1.2700.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.2720 with targets at 1.2780 and stop-loss at 1.2690.
The period of implementation is 1-2 days.


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WTI Crude Oil: technical analysis

WTI Crude Oil, D1
On D1 chart the instrument is decreasing along the lower border of Bollinger Bands. The price range is widened, and the next target is the support level of 42.00. In case this level is broken through, the price will continue to move to 41.50, 41.00. MACD histogram is in the negative area and gradually increases its volumes. The signal line is crossing to body of the histogram Stochastic is in the oversold zone and is about to cross the border wth the neutral area.

WTI Crude Oil, H4
On the H4 chart the price corrected to the middle line of Bollinger Bands. The price is moving within the 42.00 - 43.00 range formed by the middle and lower borders of the indicator. MACD histogram is in the negative zone keeping a signal for the opening of short positions. Stochatic is in the neutral zone, and the lines of the oscillator are directed downwards.

Key levels
Support levels: 42.00, 41.50, 41.00.
Resistance levels: 44.00, 45.80, 46.50, 47.15, 48.00, 49.30, 50.00, 50.50, 51.70, 52.50, 53.00.

Trading tips
According to technical indicators, short positions could be opened from the current level with targets at 42.00 and stop-loss at 43.20. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
Long positions may be opened from 44.30 with targets at 45.80 and stop-loss at 43.80. The implementation period is 3-5 days.



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EUR/USD: summer drop and volatility

Current trend
The rate of EUR/USD is in the side tendency and has been consolidating in the narrow channel for a month. The summer season is at its peak, and the leaders of Eurozone and the USA have postoponed their key decisions for autumn. The only movement catalyst was the decision of FOMC to increase the rates that has been in the making for a long time.
Despite this, the rate of USD against EUR underwent almost no significant changes. The pair has been trading within the limit of 120 points since the middle of May. Last week it dropped due to the growth of demand for USD in view of FOMC decisions but by Friday the pair returned to starting points. Today the economic calendar containst no macroeconomic releases from Europe and the USA.

Support and resistance
No major fluctuations of the pair are expected in the medium term. Lateral channel is likely to narrow down. Even tomorrow's statements by ECB President Mario Draghi and FOMC chair Janet Yelln are not likely to provoke volatility.
Despite this, the upward trend has been broken, and there is high possibility that the pair will drop in the long term. The downward tendency may continue to the lower border of the long-term upward range at 1.0820. The main supporting factors are weak demand for EUR in view of Brexit and growing investors' interest in weakened USD supported by the increase of the key interest rate. Technical indicators confirm the downward tendency. The volumes of long positions in MACD indicator dropped rapidly, and Bollinger Bands are rearranging horizontally.
Support levels: 1.1155, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1020, 1.1000, 1.0950, 1.0820, 1.0710, 1.0570.
Resistance levels: 1.1200, 1.1230, 1.1280, 1.1350, 1.1370, 1.1470.

Trading tips
Positions may be opened from the borders of the channel. Short positions may be opened after a sell signal following the breakout of the key support levels 1.1125, 1.1100 with targets at 1.0950, 1.0820.


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Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend
Oil quotes attempted to grow once again. Moving away from the support level of 45.17, they are trying to consolidate above the resistance level of 46.31. Technical indicators show the increasing influence of the buyers. Bollinger Bands are pointing upwards. The volumes of MACD histogram are actively reducing in the negative zone and have moved to the positive one. Breaking through the level of 46.31 will be a signal of growth continuation. In this case the nearest targets of the buyers will be 47.00, 48.00. If the level of 46.31 is not bronek through, and the sellers manage to take the initiative, the fall will continue to 45.58, 44.48.
Today market players will pay attention to initial data from API on weekly changes of oil reserves in the USA (22:30, GMT+2). If the report points at considerable reduction of reserve, Brent will gain strong support in the short term. Otherwise the fall will continue. Generally the news in the oil market remain negative. The market still has not seen any effect from OPEC+ agreement extension. Due to the remaining oversupply of oil it is difficult for the prices to move to stable growth.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 45.58, 44.48, 43.52.
Resistance levels: 46.31, 47.00, 48.01.

Trading tips
Buy positions may be opened above the level of 46.31 with targets at 47.00, 48.00 and stop-loss at 46.20.
Sell positions may be opened below 45.58 with targets at 44.48 and stop-loss at 48.88.


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NZD/USD: general review

Current trend
As a result of yesterday's trading the rate of the pair NZD/USD demonstrated mixed dynamics and closed at 0.7269. USD consolidated in view of comments by the member of FOMC Open Markets Committee Patrick Harker supporting the increase of the rates this year. The pair was also influenced by the "hawkish" tone of comments made by the ECB head Mario Draghi who stated that the increase of interest rates in the near future. Fiscal policies of ECB and FOMC differ from that of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. While FOMC and ECB speak about the increase of the rates, RBN remains neutral.
Today the rate of the pair may be influenced by the data on the on-going housing sales transactions from the USA. The indicator is expected to grow by 0.8% and a result above expected may give additional support to USD.

Support and resistance
On the H4 chart the instrument is moving in the narrow range formed by middle and lower lines of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the positive area with it volumes decreasing. Stochastic is crossing the borders of the neutral zone and the oversold zone from below, forming a signal for the opening of long positions.
Support levels: 0.7250, 0.7200, 0.7160, 0.7130, 0.7100, 0.7050.
Resistance levels: 0.7280, 0.7320, 0.7350.

Trading tips
Short positions may be opened from 0.7250 with targets at 0.7200 and stop-loss at 0.7280.
Long positions may be opened from 0.7290 with targets at 0.7340 and stop-loss at 0.7260.
The period of implementation is 1-3 days.


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XAG/USD: general analysis

Current trend
Silver has been weakening during the last months, and last week has almost reached the 2-month minima at the area of 16.20-16.50. Other precious metals, gold and platinum, are trading with the same dynamics. This decrease is characterized by the simultaneous fall of the US dollar. Why the traders aren’t using the precious metals as a safe haven? Take a look at the main currency pairs’ dynamics, especially commodity ones. During the last 4-6 weeks all the commodity currencies have been growing. Canadian, European and the UK currency grew due to the tightening of its regulators’ rhetoric. The AUD was supported by the growth of the copper and iron ore prices. In the most of these countries the growth of the governments bonds’ yields can be seen, and it attracts the additional investors’ recourses and decreases the investors’ interest of the precious metals.
Last week as a result silver fell to the strong support level, which consist of two daily channels borders: the lower border of the blue 18-month channel and the upper border of the 1-year black channel.
Today the key data, which will be published, are: US Markit Manufacturing PMI at 16:00 (GMT+2), which is expected to be slightly positive, the Unemployment Rate at 11:00 (GMT+2) in the EU (slight decrease by 0.1% is expected).
The growth of silver within the correction from the strong support level is expected in the next two days.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 16.45, 16.00, 15.60, 15.00.
Resistance levels: 16.80, 17.10, 17.35.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened at the current price with the targets at 16.80, 17.10 and stop loss at 16.25.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 16.45 with the targets at 16.00, 15.60, stop loss is at 16.90.
Implementation period: 2-3 days.


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EUR/USD: the Independence Day calmed the market

Current trend
On Monday the pair was corrected due to the strong USA Markit Manufacturing PMI publication, which exceeded the expectation in June and reached the level of 57.8 points (the most significant growth from 2014).
At the moment the pair is trading within the range of 1.3700–1.1345, as the market is calm due to the Independence Day celebrating in the USA. The market will activate on Wednesday, after the EU Retail Sales and USA FOMC Minutes publication. The Minutes can clear the further intentions of the regulator. The investors are sure that the monetary policy will be tightened in the future, as it was confirmed by the FRS officials, including the head of the FRS Janet Yellen, but the specific time of the interest rate increase is unknown.

Support and resistance
From the technical point of view, the pair can be corrected too, as the price is around the upper border of a strong sideways channel. In such conditions the decrease can develop to the area of the middle line of Bollinger Bands 1.1250 and further, to 1.1190 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%) and to 1.1100 (area of crossing with the Fibonacci fan line 38.2%). The possibility of the downward correction is confirmed by the technical indicators. The MACD histogram consolidated in the positive zone. Stochastic is leaving the overbought area and forms a sell signal. The growth can restore if the price consolidates above the level of 1.1440 with the targets at 1.1530 and 1.1610.
Support levels: 1.2500, 1.1190, 1.1100, 1.1050.
Resistance levels: 1.1440, 1.1530, 1.1610.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened at the current price with the targets at 1.1250, 1.1190 and stop loss at 1.1390.
If the price is set above the level of 1.1440, the long positions can become relevant with the targets at 1.1530, 1.1610 and stop loss at 1.1400.


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WTI Crude Oil: general review

Current trend
Yesterday WTI quotes dropped by over 3% to the level of 45.00 after it was announced that OPEC states had increased the volume of exported oil by 450K barrels to 25.92 mln barrels a day. The data from API released by the end of the trading session showed the decrease of US commercial reserves by 5.76 mln barrels a week. Investors reacted to it with active purchases of oil futures which helped WTI rate return to the level of 46.00.
Today market players are waiting for the official data from the US Department of Energy on weekly changes of oil reserves (17:00 GMT+2). They are expected to reduce by 2.283 mln barrels per week against growth by 0.118 mln barrels in the previous week. The confirmation of the forecast or bigger decrease than expected m support oil prices in the short term. If the data shows smaller reduction of reserves, oil quotes may resume falling.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators show that the fall tendency remains: Bollinger Bands are directed downwards, and the volumes of MACD histogram are reducing in the positive zone. Downward movement may continue after the price consolidates below 45.51. In this case the sellers will try to drop the rate to 44.53-43.60. If the buyers manage to increase the rate above 46.11, growth may continue to 46.85.
Support levels: 45.51, 44.53, 43.60.
Resistance levels: 46.11, 46.85, 47.80.

Trading tips
Sell positions may be opened below 45.51 with targets at 44.53, 43.60 at stop-loss at 46.00.
Buy positions may be opened above the level of 46.11 with targets at 46.85, 47.80 and stop-loss at 45.70.

 
FTSE: technical analysis

FTSE, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below the EMA14, EMA65 that start turning down, but above the EMA130 and SMA200 that turned horizontally. The RSI is about to test its most recent support near the border of the oversold zone. The Composite keeps forming a Bullish divergence with the price.
FTSE, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is about to retest its longer MA from below. The Composite is falling.

Key levels
Support levels: 7290.5 (local lows), 7213.6 (May lows), 7165.0 (April gap).
Resistance levels: 7371.0 (local highs), 7438.0 (March highs), 7452.9 (local highs).

Trading tips
The price is falling along its short-term descending trendline. A breakdown of local lows would allow the fall to continue.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 7290.5 with targets at 7213.6, 7165.0 and stop-loss at 7321.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 7371.0 with targets at 7438.0, 7452.9 and stop-loss at 7333.1. Validity – 3-5 days.


 
EUR/USD: general review

Current trend
Last week the pair tested the level of 1.1440 but is still unable to consolidate above it.
On Friday the market showed a generally positive reaction to the June data on the US labor market (the number of workplaces increased by 222K), although the unemployment rate grew by 4.4%, and the annual hourly salary remained on the level of 2.5%. Based on this data, the price corrected once again, but it is still unclear whether the fall will be serious. This will to a great extent depend on the speech by FOMC head Janet Yellen in the Congress with a report on the fiscal policy for six months. On Wednesday she will present the report to the Financial Services Committee of the House of Representatives, and on Thursday – to the Banking and Construction Committee of the US Senate. The market will wait for details on further monetary policy, terms, and volumes of reduction of FOMC balance, as well as the number of interest rate increases this year.

Support and resistance
Technically the key level for the “bulls” remains 1.1440. Its breakout will give open the way of growing to 1.1530 and 1.1600. Serious correction to the levels of 1.1190 (Fibo correction 23.6%), 1.1100 (crossing with Fibo fan at 38.2%) and 1.1040 (Fibo correction 38.2%) will be possible after the price consolidates below 1.1300 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands. Technical indicators don't give a clear picture. Stochastic is directed upwards, but MACD histogram is calm in the positive zone. Moreover, the histogram and the chart have differences indicating possible future decrease of the price.
Support levels: 1.1310, 1.1100, 1.1040.
Resistance levels: 1.1440, 1.1530, 1.1600.

Trading tips
In this situation long positions may be opened if the price consolidates above 1.1440 with targets at 1.1530 and 1.1600 and stop-loss at 1.1400.
If the price consolidates below 1.1300 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands, short positions may be opened with targets at 1.1190 and 1.1100 and stop-loss at 1.1330.

 
Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend
Brent oil continues to trade in the wide downward channel. The price broke through the moving average line of Bollinger Bands and is moving to June minimums at 44.80.
The market is still negative and does not believe that the balance of supply and demand will be restored soon taking into account growing oil production in the USA. Yesterday's statements by the head of OPEC Mohammed Barkindo about the reduction of oil production by over 106% by cartel members kept the price around the middle line of Bollinger Bands (47.00), but today the price started to fall again. In the evening investors are waiting for the API report on the US oil reserves. The growth of the indicator may slow down the fall of the prices.

Support and resistance
Technically the price is trying to move from the middle line of Bollinger Bands to June minimums (44.80) and further to the lower border of the channel (42.70). In case the middle line of Bollinger Bands is broken out and the price consolidates above 47.60 (Fibo correction 23.6% for the medium term trend), upward correction to the levels of 49.35 (correction 38.2%, upper line of Bollinger Bands) and 50.60 (gathering of corrections 23.6% and 50.0%) may be expected. Technical indicators don't provide a clear signal. Stochastic is trying to reverse near the oversold zone, and MACD histogram is growing in the negative zone.
Support levels: 46.00, 44.80, 42.70.
Resistance levels: 47.60, 49.35, 50.60.

Trading tips
In the current situation short positions may be opened below 46.00 with targets at 44.80, 42.70 and stop-loss at 46.50.
In case the price reverses and breaks out the level of 47.60, long positions may be opened with targets at 49.35, 50.60 and stop-loss at 47.20.

 
WTI Crude Oil: general review

Current trend
WTI quotes are growing after the release of initial data from API indicating that more considerable reduction of US oil reserves as expected. According to the report, during the week they reduced by 8.13 mln barrels. This helped WTI gain 2.75% and increase to the level of 46.00.
Official data from the US Department of Energy on weekly changes in commercial oil reserves are due today at 16:30 (GMT+2). If they indicate higher reduction of reserves and oil production in the USA, WTI will gain considerable support. If oil reserves reduce but the level of production remains unchanged or increases, WTI will get under pressure once again. Investors are waiting for an effect from OPEC+ agreement of the reduction of oil production, and any news about its increase in this situation may lead to the fall of oil quotes.

Support and resistance
Technical indicators show that WTI growth potential is preserved. Bollinger Bands diverge confirming the upward trend. The volumes of MACD histogram are actively growing in the positive zone. Growth may continue after the resistance level of 46.11 is broken through. If the buyers manage to consolidate above it, growth will continue to 46.85. If not, one may expect downward correction to the middle line of Bollinger Bands (44.80).
Support levels: 45.51, 44.53, 43.75.
Resistance levels: 46.11, 46.85, 47.80.

Trading tips
Buy positions may be opened above 46.11 with targets at 46.85 and stop-loss at 45.85. In case the price breaks out and consolidates above 46.85, the next target of the buyers will be 47.80.
Sell positions may be opened below 45.51 with targets at 44.53 and stop-loss at 45.80.

 
NZD/USD: general review

Current trend

The key event of the previous day was the speech of Janet Yellen before the US Congress. The head of FOMC pointed out positive tendencies in the US economy and stated the regulator was planning to increase interest rates before the end of the year. Yellen's comments did not lead to considerable strengthening of USD, but the pair of NZD/USD dropped without consolidating above the resistance level of 0.7350 that it has been trying to break out for two years.

Today New Zealand published the data on industrial PMI. The fall of the value from 58.5 to 56.2 basis points and the comments by the head of FOMC may lead to the reversal of the instrument today.

Friday is rich in macroeconomic data from the USA. Statistics is expected to be positive for the US currency and this will put considerable pressure on the pair.
Support and resistance

On the D1 chart the instrument moved from the resistance level of 0.7330. Bollinger Bands have corrected sideward, while the price range has slightly broadened indicating the continuation of the current trend. MACD histogram is in thee positive zone maintaining a weak buy signal. Stochastic is approaching the oversold zone.

Support levels: 0.7285, 0.7250, 0.7210, 0.7170.
Resistance levels: 0.7330, 0.7370, 0.7400.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened at the current price with targets at 0.7275, 0.7250 and stop-loss at 0.7340. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 0.7345 with target at 0.7395 and stop-loss at 0.7320. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

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Forex Analytics by LiteForex. EUR/USD: Fibonacci analysis

On the H4 chart the price failed to consolidate below the level of 1.1400 (correction 23.6%) but may resume attempts in the near future. Breaking through the level of 1.1400 near the crossing with the line of the upper fan at 38.2% and the 23.6% curve may lead to further correction to the level of 1.1345 (correction 23.6%, middle line of Bollinger Bands for D1). An important level for the "bulls" is 1.1487. After consolidating above it, the pair may enter long-term growth.

On the D1 chart the price remains within the upper trend and is testing the level of 1.1470. After breaking through it, the pair may continue growing to 1.1540 and 1.1600. Otherwise it may fall to the levels of 1.1340 (middle line of Bollinger Bands and correction 38.2% for H4) and 1.1255 (correction 23.6%). Gradual growth may continue as Stochastic is trying to reverse upwards.

Main scenario

Buy positions look more preferable, but they should be opened after the price consolidates above 1.1470 with targets at 1.1540 and 1.1600. Stop-loss should be placed at 1.1420.

Alternative scenario

Sell positions may become relevant after the price consolidates below 1.1400 with targets at 1.1340, 1.1255 and stop-loss at 1.1450.

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AUD/USD: the pair has reached its limit

Current trend

In the second half of July the rate of the Australian currency against USD rapidly grew. Within several days the pair gained over 350 points having broken through a number of key resistance levels. The pair has been moving upwards almost without downward corrections which shows considerable growth in the volumes of long positions. The main catalyst of this movement was yet another negative data from the USA, FOMC comments on possible postponing of monetary policy tightening, beneficial fundamental background from Australia, and stability of RBA monetary policy.

Last week weak labor market, inflation, and retail sales releases were published in the USA. Australia responded with strong data on consumer confidence index and consumer expectations. Positive prospects and current indicators included into the RBA minutes give AUD additional support.

Support and resistance

Today the pair tested a new local maximum and a key resistance level of 0.7945 and consolidated below this point. Later on the pair is likely to move from rapid growth stage to the consolidation stage. Historical data shows that the pair is widely trading in the side range. In this situation side channel may be limited by key support and resistance levels at 0.7800 and 0.7945 respectively. In the medium term the pair may reach the level of 0.8000, but this will be followed by deep downward correction. Investors have already started to move away from long positions, and in the future it will happen more often and will become the main factor of pressure on the pair. Technical indicators continue to give a sell signal, and MACD shows the preservation of long positions.

Support levels: 0.7860, 0.7800, 0.7750, 0.7720, 0.7680, 0.7650, 0.7610, 0.7580, 0.7400, 0.7250.
Resistance levels: 0.7945, 0.7980, 0.8000, 0.8070, 0.8150.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened from key resistance levels at 0.7945, 0.8000 with target at 0.7580 and short stop-loss at 0.8060.

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