"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

20.01.2017

Euro

General overview

The ECB left its rates unchanged: the deposit rate remained at -0.4% and the interest one at 0.0%. Moreover, the US dollar strengthened amid upbeat data. The Initial Jobless Claims came in green. Housing Starts showed strong figures as well. Investors’ attention now turns to Trump's inauguration which will take place on Friday.

Current situation

The downward trajectory lost its legs just below 1.0650 when sellers met a solid barrier which rejected the pair upwards. The euro reversed majority of its losses on Thursday. The spot broke 1.0650 ahead of the European session opening and headed towards 1.0700. However, the upward impetus soon faded, the recovery stalled above 1.0650. A fresh selling interest dragged the pair downwards. The spot broke 1.0650 and tested 1.0600 at the US session opening. The EUR/USD pair presented a neutral-to-bullish stance during the European hours. The 4 hours chart showed that the price stayed above the moving averages. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed higher while the 200-EMA remained flat in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI was within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We became bearish regarding the pair now. A break below 1.0650 would increase a negative signal and risk further easing of the EURUSD pair towards 1.0600, en route to 1.0550.



Pound

General overview

Housing Price Balance foe December came in worse than expecting slowing down the pound recovery on Thursday. The pound weakened further vs. the US dollar after the upbeat US data. We expect a number of UK's Retail Sales releases today which are expected with positive figures.

Current situation

The pound strengthened further on Thursday, sending the GBP/USD to its recent highs at 1.2400. The cable was able to reverse some of its losses amid broad dollar's weakness. Having found a local bottom at 1.2250 the spot reversed its direction and rallied upwards breaking 1.2300 in the European session. After passing the level the pair continued moving north targeting at 1.2400. Buying interest faded in the North American session. The price faced the downward rejection and turned lower. The price continued developing well between the 200 and the 100-EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were neutral while the 200-EMA kept heading lower in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2400, the support comes in at 1.2300.

MACD grew which is a buy signal. RSI left the neutral area and entered overvalued territory.

Trading recommendations

The pound remained under the risk of falling deeper down. The 1.2400 hurdle coupled with the 200-EMA limited the pound further advance. A downtrend will start as soon, as the spot drops below the support level 1.2300. Further easing to 1.2200 is not ruled out. A break above 1.2400 will advance the spot to 1.2450.



Yen

General overview

J. Yellen’s remarks coupled with strong data boosted the US dollar demand. The strong labor market data and Housing Starts release supported the greenback on Friday. All eyes are on Trump's inauguration.

Current situation

The pair remained in a short-term downward channel staying around its upper limit on Thursday. Buyers lost their momentum after touching 115.00. The US dollar was in a consolidation phase during the Asian and European sessions. Traders struggled with the hurdle to resume their advance. The level, however, turned out to be a solid obstacle to break. The US dollar got under selling pressure on any up-move towards the level. A fresh bout of buying interest supported the U.S. dollar. The major attacked the 115.00 hurdle with fresh vigour during the NY hours. The price tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs maintained their bearish slope while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI was within overvalued readings close to the neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We believe that a break through 115.00 will put on hold bears’ plans. The potential buyers’ target is 116.00.

 
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

23.01.2017

Euro

General overview

The dollar reversed some of its losses after hawkish J.Yellen's remarks. The euro ignored Germany PPI which came in a line with expectations. Markets focused on Trump's inauguration on Friday expecting to hear fresh guidelines from a new President. Traders wait for Draghi's speech and Germany Manufacturing PMI on Monday.

Current situation

Despite technical readings the pair held to its recent bullish tone on Friday. The EUR/USD pair remained in a near-term ascending channel. The price reached its upper boundary overnight and bounced off it at the beginning of the European trades. The spot pushed away from 1.0700 and reached 1.0650 in the mid-European session. The price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs downwards and tested the 200-EMA in the 1 hour chart during the European hours. The 100 and the 200-EMAs kept heading higher while the 50-EMA headed downwards in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI was within neutral territory favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

A break below 1.0650 may trigger another leg lower. A daily close below 1.0600 handle would open 1.0550. However, a lower limit of an upward channel is a solid obstacle which may reject the pair once again. If the level holds the EUR/USD pair will refresh to the current highs at 1.0720.



Pound

General overview

The pound lost its impetus amid worse than expected Retail Sales. Despite the negative data the sterling maintained its upbeat tone on Friday`.

Current situation

The Asian recovery stalled a few pips below 1.2400. After posting a daily high at 1.2374 the spot turned around and headed towards 1.2300. Sellers broke the level in the mid-European session and led the pair towards 1.2250. However, a revived buying interest stopped sellers' advance and returned the cable to 1.2300 ahead of the NY opening. The spot failed to retake the 200-EMA in the Asian session and bounced off the moving afterwards. GBP/USD pair headed towards neutral 100-EMA in the European session. The moving averages were mixed: the 100-EMA was neutral, the 200-EMA kept heading lower while the 50-EMA pointed higher in the 4 hours chart. The resistance lies at 1.2400, the support comes in at 1.2300.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ growing strength. RSI left the overvalued readings and headed south.

Trading recommendations

A break below 1.2300 may suggests further weakness of the GBPUSD pair. The price might extend the downtrend towards the 1.2200.



Yen

General overview

The dollar weakened after J.Yellen's hawkish speech. However, the greenback reverted some losses on Friday on expectations of D.Trump's speech after his inauguration.

Current situation

The USD/JPY pair extended its recovery on Friday. The US dollar was struggling with the 115.00 hurdle during the Asian session. Bulls broke the level ahead of the European session opening. However, the spot lost its upward impetus soon and returned to 115.00. According to the 4 hours chart the price bounced off the 50-EMA in the Asian session. The spot was between the 100 and the 50 EMAs during the European hours. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed lower while the 200-EMA remained flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 116.00, the support comes in at 115.00.

MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains in the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI stayed within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook remained bullish, for a rise towards 116.00 resistance area. After the hurdle break a further extension towards 117.00 could be observed further. If the level 115.00 fails to support bulls the USD/JPY pair may lost its ground again returning to a downside.

 
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

24.01.2017

Euro

General overview

The calendar remained thin and uneventful on Monday. The pair was influenced by broad base dollar retracement. Donald Trump's inaugural speech disappointed investors with absence of clear comments regarding taxes or investment measures. The market will be focused on PMI Composite and Manufacturing PMI from Markit in Germany on Tuesday.

Current situation

The common European currency maintained its bid tone for the 3rd consecutive session on Monday. The euro reached the level 1.0750 in the early trades which stopped its further advance. After touching the level the pair rolled back maintaining its bullish stance during the European hours. The spot extended its losses ahead of NY session opening. The 1 hour chart showed that the price continued developing well above its moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards. The moving averages pointed higher in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0750, the support comes in at 1.0700.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI stayed within the overvalued readings favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

A bullish tone prevails in the 4 hours chart. A break above 1.0750 may suggest further growth of the EURUSD pair towards 1.0800. In case of a bounce from 1.0750, the currency pair would fall as low as 1.0650.



Pound

General overview

The pound strengthened amid the US dollar weakness. The dollar softened after D.Trump’s inauguration speech which lacked any hints of his future program.

Current situation

The pound traded in the green zone on Monday extending its Friday's gains. The cable left the seven-week descending channel on Friday. The spot broke the level 1.2400 in the early Asian trades and advanced north during the European trades on Monday. The upward trajectory stopped a few pips below 1.2500 where a fresh bout of selling interest weighed on the spot. The price broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs upwards and stayed above them in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100-EMAs kept heading higher while the 200-EMA pointed lower. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI remained in the overvalued readings and headed higher.

Trading recommendations

We expect GBPUSD pair to trade bullish for now. Once the GBP/USD pair breaks above 1.2500, we think that the 1.2550 level will be next.



Yen

General overview

The US dollar edged lower vs. the yen on Monday amid growing concerns that Trump’s first steps as the US President may bring instability in the Asian region causing «economical wars» with leading Asian economics.

Current situation

The USD/JPY pair stayed in the red zone on Monday. The spot found a solid support around 113.00 in the Asian session and recovered some ground during the European hours. After testing the 113.00 handle the price reversed its direction and grew up to 114.00 where it slowed down its recovery. A fresh selling interest emerged ahead of the NA session opening sending the pair to 113.00. The price broke the 50-EMA downwards in the Asian session in the 4 hours chart. The spot stayed below its moving averages on Monday. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading lower while the 200-EMA was neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.

MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI consolidated within oversold readings close to the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

Technical studies are in favour of the negative outcome. The USD/JPY pair risks falling back to 113.00 which is expected to limit its losses.

 
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

25.01.2017

Euro

General overview

Manufacturing PMI in Germany posted better-than-expected results. Services PMI showed on the contrary negative figures. The market will be focused on Business Climate in Germany on Wednesday.

Current situation

Sentiment remained bullish towards the euro on Tuesday. The EUR/USD traded in an ascending channel close to its upper limit. Euro bulls met a barrier at 1.0750 and failed to advance further. After posting a daily high at 1.0770 in the Asian session bulls stepped back and returned the pair to the 1.0750 region. The spot remained above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs kept heading higher while the 200 EMA stayed neutral. The resistance is at 1.0750, the support comes in at 1.0700.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator is near overvalued territory, favoring a move lower.

Trading recommendations

A close above 1.0750 will generate fresh bullish signal for further advance towards 1.0800. Inability to move beyond the level may cause a pull back. The EUR/USD pair may correct lower to 1.0670 and 1.0650.



Pound

General overview

Traders booked some profits ahead of the UK Supreme Court's decision on Brexit. The Supreme Court had to decide whether Parliament approval is required to launch Article 50.

Current situation

The bullish market structure remained in place on Tuesday. Buyers failed to retake 1.2500 and had to retreat giving the floor to sellers. A fresh buying interest around the US currency helped the US dollar to recover from the recent lows. Sellers pushed the price lower in the Asian session but failed to advance below the mark 1.2460 before the European session. The pair continued its slide towards 1.2450 ahead of the NY session opening. The moving averages were mixed in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA remained bearish while the 50 and 100 EMAs were turning upwards. Moreover, the 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ growing strength. The RSI indicator remained within overbought readings.

Trading recommendations

Sustained break above the 1.2500 region is seen as minimum requirement needed to confirm bullish resumption. In this scenario, buyers may lead prices towards 1.2540, en rout to 1.2600. To ease the current upward pressure the spot needs to close below 1.2400. We will buy before this level reaching.



Yen


General overview

The yen received a light support from the upbeat Manufacturing PMI. Moreover, the uncertainty around Trump’s economic agenda kept on weighing on the US dollar.

Current situation

Sellers continued to dominate on Tuesday. However, bears seem to have taken a breath after meeting the solid support around multi-week lows at 112.50. The price bounced from the 112.50 support zone in the Asian session and developed a goodish recovery building on to its momentum back above 113.00 handle afterwards. After breaking the level the USD/JPY pair extended its growth in the European session. The US dollar had reversed half of Monday's sharp drop by the NY session opening. According the 4 hours chart the pair remained below its moving averages. The 50 and 100 EMAs advanced south while the 200-EMA remained neutral. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.

The technical indicators bounced from oversold levels staying within negative readings. The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ growing strength. RSI bounced off the oversold area and headed north.

Trading recommendations

If bears retain control the spot will return below 113.00. This scenario risks the advance towards 112.00. To put on hold bears’ plans buyers need a clear break above 114.00.

 
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

26.01.2017

Euro

General overview

The European common currency got under selling pressure in the morning trades on Wednesday amid negative Business Climate release in Germany. A demand for the euro emerged in the European session helping the major to reverse its losses climbing to fresh highs.

Current situation

Bears tried to take control over the market on Wednesday. After a night consolidation sellers made an attempt to move the price lower at the beginning of the European session. The price headed towards 1.0700 first, however, the selling interest faded soon. The pair found fresh bids above 1.0700 and extended its corrective rally on risk-on trades. The common currency rallied and reversed all Tuesday’s losses by the noon. The spot hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0750, the support comes in at 1.0700.

MACD grew which indicates the buyers’ positions strengthening. RSI stayed within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

A bullish tone prevailed in the 4 hours chart. We will place buy orders if the EURAUD does a breakout at the resistance level of 1.0750. The pair might extend its gains towards 1.0800 afterwards. Meanwhile, inability to climb above 1.07500 risks a decline back to 1.0700.



Pound

General overview

The UK Industrial Trends Survey - Orders grew for January providing support for the cable. Investors kept weighing up M.Carney's remarks. The immediate focus now remains on the UK GDP for 4Q. Traders expect a light decline in the GDP.

Current situation

The GBP/USD pair kept its rangebound stance unchanged the first part of Wednesday. The spot traded in a tight range flirting with 1.2500 during the day. A fresh buying impetus boosted the GBP/USD pair to 1.2600 after London's opening. The spot continued developing well above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading higher while the 200-EMA pointed lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2600, the support comes in at 1.2500.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI indicator consolidated within overvalued readings favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

Strategically, we preserve bearish outlook and see risks of a move down towards 1.2400 over the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the price maintained its bullish tone in the 4 hours chart. The GBP/USD pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate resistance near 1.2700. However, the spot needs to break the 1.2600 level first to maintain its bullishness.



Yen

General overview

Protectionist rhetoric from the White House kept weighing on the dollar. Exports and Merchandise Trade Balance in Japan showed upbeat data supporting the national currency.

Current situation

USD/JPY remained in bearish trend. Tuesday’s recovery stalled when the price met a barrier at 114.00. Buyers failed to retake the level which rejected the USD/JPY pair downwards. The spot rolled back and stopped a few pips below the hurdle. The pair was confined to a well limited range below 114.00 during the European hours and continued its slide ahead of the NY session opening. The 4 hours chart showed that the price tested the 50-EMA in the early trades. The US dollar failed to reclaim the 50-EMA and bounced off it. The benchmark remained below its moving averages. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading lower while the 200-EMA stayed flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI remained within the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

We expect to see renewed bearish pressure in the coming sessions. Sellers may drive the pair to 113.00 first, en route to 112.50.

 
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

27.01.2017

Euro

General overview

Investors ignored positive Eurozone data: Consumer Confidence Survey in Germany showed better than expected results, Unemployment Survey in Spain declined more than expected. The immediate focus now remains on US GDP which is set for Friday.

Current situation

The EUR/USD remained in bulls' hands on Thursday. The market seemed fairly balanced amid lack of market mover. The euro remained in a tight range between 1.0720-1.0750 during the Asia session. European traders pushed the price lower. The common European currency dropped and touched 1.0700 in the mid-European session. The spot broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 100 and the 200-EMAs pointed higher while the 50-EMA remained neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left overvalued readings and moved south.

Trading recommendations

We prefer to stay bearish for now. A move below 1.7000 will signal the presence of sellers. The pair EURUSD may go downwards towards 1.0650 after the level break. If the price closes above 1.0750, the market may continue moving upwards.



Pound

General overview

The UK's Q4 GDP came in better-than-expected supporting the national currency. Moreover, the pound received extra support after Supreme Court decision which ruled that Article 50 requires parliamentary approval to be launched. We expect US Gross Domestic Product Price and Durable Goods Orders releases on Friday. We will also be keeping a close eye on Trump and May's meeting. Theresa May will become the first foreign leader to meet the new President.

Current situation

The pound surprised markets on Wednesday, having successfully climbed over the 1.26 hurdle. After reaching multi-month highs the GBP/USD pair slowed down. Buyers seem to have completed an upside impulse for now. Having run out of steam bulls stopped at 1.2650 in the mid-European session and gave way to sellers. Bears pushed the price lower and tested 1.2600 ahead of the NY session opening. The spot extended its losses in the early US trades. The 4 hours chart showed that the price hovered above its moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 200-EMA was neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2600, the support comes in at 1.2500.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI indicator consolidated within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

Technically the GBP/USD pair is heavily overbought. We expect a correction move below 1.2600. If the spot fixates below the handle we could see GBPUSD extending its declines down to 1.2500.



Yen

General overview

The yen weakened despite existing risks towards world trade which keep supporting the safe-heaven yen. Japan will release CPI figures in the night.

Current situation

Bears lost the ball on Thursday. The pair stayed range-bound-to higher in the Asian session. An upward impetus emerged ahead of the European session opening. The US dollar bounced off 113.00 and moved towards 114.00 during the morning hours. The U.S dollar accelerated its recovery post-European open and jumped to fresh session peak above 114.00 level. The price broke the 50-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The spot continued developing well below the 100 and the 200-EMAs afterwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed lower while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI left the neutral area and moved north.

Trading recommendations

Bulls keep focus at 114.50. If they start to challenge this area it is likely to break and the price may move towards the 115.00 hurdle.

 
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

30.01.2017

Euro

General overview

The euro weakened amid the US dollar growing strength. The lack of market moving news in the calendar left the common currency flat-out.

Current situation

The euro continued its slide overnight and left the short-term upward channel. The common European currency traded mixed in the Asian session staying in a tight range 1.0650-1.0690. The pair maintained its neutral stance during the early European hours. The euro found fresh bids around 1.0700 and rallied through the level heading towards 1.0750 ahead of the NY opening. The price broke the 50-EMA downwards in the 4 hours chart. The spot stayed above the 100 and the 200-EMAs afterwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs headed north while the 200-EMA remained flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0750, the .support comes in at 1.0700.

MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. RSI was within oversold readings close to the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

A close above 1.0700 will generate fresh bullish signal for further advance, which could extend to 1.0750 level.



Pound

General overview

The pound weakened amid a growing demand for the US dollar. The cable has a chance to return some ground after Trump and May’s meeting. The downbeat US data may also kick the cable higher.

Current situation

The pound continued losing its value vs. the dollar in the Thursday’s night. The spot pushed away from 1.2600 and moved towards 1.2500 during the Asian hours. The pound continued losing its value in the European session approaching 1.2500. The level, however, stopped sellers’ advance and rejected the spot upwards. The price continued developing well above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept pointing higher while the 200-EMA was neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2600, the support comes in at 1.2500.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI indicator left the overvalued readings and entered the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

The bullish trend remained intact and the cable has a chance to return some ground if it gets above 1.2600. A breakout of 1.2600 level would aim for 1.2700. On the other hand existing selling pressure may lead the spot below 1.2500 aiming the pair to 1.2400.



Yen

General overview

The yen softened amid broad US dollar recovery. The growing US yields weighed on the Japanese currency as well.

Current situation

The USD/JPY pair maintained its bid tone on Friday. The pair traded with slight gains in the Asian session. Buyers broke the level 115.00 in the night and continued moving higher afterwards. The pair extended its bounce in the European session when the price broke 115.00 and advanced further. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs upwards. The 100-EMA pointed lower while the 50 and the 200-EMAs remained flat in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.

MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains in the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI was within the overvalued readings favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

If the level 115.00 holds we recommend going short with the first target – 114.00. The US dollar needs to fixate above 115.00 before a price can rally towards 116.00.

 
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

31.01.2017

Euro

General overview

The euro ignored positive GDP in Spain and softened on Monday. Markets eye the upcoming ECB meeting and Consumer Price Index which is expected in green.

Current situation


The EUR/USD gapped higher at the daily open on Monday. The price jumped from 1.0700 to 1.0740 in the early Asian trades. The dollar's negative tone however, reversed mid Asian session. Bulls failed to extend their gains and stepped back giving the way to sellers. Bears seized control and pushed the spot back to 1.0700 where the spot traded almost unchanged in the mid-European session. A fresh selling interest emerged before NY opening. The EUR/USD pair made a good break lower and reached 1.0650. The price broke the 50-EMA downwards and tested the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart in the mid-European trades. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading higher while the 200-EMA remained flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0700, the .support comes in at 1.0650.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI was within the neutral area and moved south.

Trading recommendations


The 1.0750 resistance needs to be retested before the EUR/USD pair might rally towards 1.8000. However, the spot has all chances to turn bearish now. Should the price fixate below 1.0650 the way towards 1.0550 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

There was not much to watch on the UK calendar on Monday. All eyes are on the Bank of England on Wednesday.

Current situation

The GBP/USD gapped higher at the start of the new week. The spot jumped up to 1.2600 where the price met a strong barrier. The major bounced off the hurdle, dropped back towards the opening price сlosing the bullish opening gap. The spot pressured the 1.2500 level in the European session, but failed to retake the handle. The pound hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs headed north while the 200-EMA was neutral-bearish in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2600, the support comes in at 1.2500.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI indicator left the overvalued readings and headed south.

Trading recommendations

The technical picture favors the downside. Should the 1.2500 level break down it will determine further direction of the GBPUSD pair towards 1.2400.



Yen

General overview

The US treasury bonds growth helped the US dollar to reverse some losses. Besides, weak Retail Trades in Japan weakened the national currency.

Current situation

A strong two day rally was capped above 115.00. The US dollar gapped lower vs. its Japanese peer at open on Monday. The greenback jumped from 115.00 to 114.85 and extended its losses afterwards. After finding fresh bids around 114.23 the price turned around and rallied back to the opening price. The spot approached 115.00 in the early European trades but retreated immediately after the level test. The USD/JPY pair stayed a few pips below the level ahead of the NY opening. The price tested the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The spot remained around the 100-EMA after testing the moving. The 100 and the 200-EMAs were flat while the 50 pointed higher in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.

MACD traded to the upside. The RSI was within the overvalued readings close to the neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

Bullish near-term studies support further upside sentiment. A firm break above 115.00 handle would open 116.00.

 
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

01.02.2017

Euro

General overview

The euro received support from Unemployment Change in Germany. The Unemployment Rate in the Euroland showed upbeat results as well. The euro extended its gains following the positive Q4 GDP. Moreover, the US dollar weakened after Trump’s top trade adviser accused Germany of currency exploitation.

Current situation

The Asian recovery halted at 1.0720. The euro returned to 1.0700 afterwards where the spot stayed during the European hours. The overall sentiment was neutral amid lack of any market movers in the European session. A fresh buying interest emerged ahead of the NY opening. The price jumped to 1.0750 and immediately broke the hurdle. The price bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs headed higher while the 200-EMA was neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0800, the support comes in at 1.0750.

MACD indicator remained at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI moved upwards.

Trading recommendations

We expect to see renewed bearish pressure if the pair failed to retake 1.0750. A breakout below 1.0700 might force the EURUSD pair to resume its downward trajectory towards 1.0650.



Pound

General overview

The UK data calendar was light on Tuesday. All eyes are on the Bank of England and its upcoming meeting. The BoE is to publish Manufacturing PMI while the Fed will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. The Bank is likely to keep the rate unchanged.

Current situation

The pound came under further selling pressure in the early trades on Tuesday. The pair failed to sustain the Asian recovery and sharply fell during the morning hours. The sterling broke 1.2500 and tested fresh lows around 1.2400 in the mid-European session. The l.2400 level rejected the price after London's opening. The price moved upwards and reversed all its daily losses. The spot broke the 50-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading higher while the 200-EMA pointed lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.

MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. RSI indicator left the neutral area and moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

Last price action put on hold bears’ plans. Buyers have a chance to neutralize the downward pressure if they fixate above 1.2500.



Yen

General overview

The BoJ decision to leave the rate unchanged supported the yen on Tuesday. Moreover, a risk-off sentiment made the yen more attractive. Besides, the US dollar was under pressure after Trump’s decision to restrict immigration from 7 countries and his top adviser accusations towards Germany.

Current situation

The USD/JPY pair reversed early losses on Tuesday. The spot caught fresh bids around 113.50 amid some fresh US dollar buying interest during European morning trades. Traders pushed the US dollar higher reclaiming the 114.00 hurdle ahead of the NY opening. The spot found fresh offers around 114.00. The pair turned negative and eased towards the daily low at 113.00. The price bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed lower while the 200-EMA was bearish-neutral. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI remained within the overvalued territory.

Trading recommendations

If bulls retain control over the market, we cannot rule out the chance that the USD/JPY pair would try to get to the level 115.00 after breaking 114.00. A break below 113.00 will show room for further downside towards 112.50.



AUD/USD

General overview

Private Sector Credit improved in Australia supporting the national currency. Meanwhile, investors are in wait-and-see mode ahead of Fed's meeting.

Current situation

The AUD/USD pair remained directionless staying around 0.7550 during the morning trades on Tuesday. A fresh bout of buying interest pushed the price higher ahead of the NY opening. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept pointing higher while the 200-EMA was flat in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7600, the support comes in at 0.7550.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. The RSI left the overvalued and entered the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

No clear direction could be expected while the price holds within the current range 0.7540 - 0.7570. However, we expect a positive bias in the coming session. We recommend placing buy orders only if the spot fixates above 0.7570. The next bullish target is 0.7600.



XAU/USD

General overview

Gold prices turned bullish on Tuesday when risk-off sentiment returned. The uncertainty around the new US administration kept weighing on the US dollar. There has not been a single day without a surprise Trump's announcement that affected the financial world since Trump took over the office.

Current situation

The risky mode faded away from the market as the positive statement strengthened. Fresh bids around 1200 dollars per ounce pushed the price away from the handle. Gold spot accelerated its growth rallying towards 1210 ahead of the NY opening. Gold prices maintained its recovery rally in the early US session. The resistance exists at 1210, the support stands at 1200 dollars per ounce.

The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke the 50 and 100 EMAs upwards. The 50-EMA acts as a support right now. The 100-EMA pointed higher while the 50 and the 200-EMAs were neutral in the mentioned timeframe.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI entered the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

The price maintained its bullish tone in the 4 hours chart. If the pair fixates above 1205, the precious metal may continue its upmove in the short term. The potential buyers’ targets are 1210 and 1215 dollars per ounce.



Brent

General overview

Oil prices edged lower in the early trades on Tuesday amid the US drilling activity growth. However, Brent turned positive and erased overnight losses when focus shifted to U.S. stockpile data.

Current situation

Oil futures extended their neutral mode in the early trades on Tuesday. The benchmark traded range-bound-to lower during the European hours. An upward impetus pushed the price upwards ahead of the NY opening. The price tried to reclaim 55.50 in the early NY trades. Brent continued developing below its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 200-EMAs were neutral while the 100-EMA headed south in the same chart. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI stayed within the oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

The bullish scenario prevailed on Tuesday. To trigger additional upward momentum towards 56.50 the price needs to break the level 55.50 dollars per barrel.

 
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

02.02.2017

Euro

General overview

The US dollar is under pressure after Trump’s trade advisor remarks where he accused Germany, China and Japan in taking advantages from devaluated currencies. In addition, the euro received some support from upbeat inflation figures in the euro land. Investors’ attention now turns to the Fed meeting.

Current situation

The EUR/USD upward structure remained intact on Wednesday. The euro remained rather unchanged against the dollar after Tuesday's rally in the early trades. Buyers consolidated their gains holding the spot flat below 1.0800. A fresh selling interest emerged ahead of the NY opening. The pair pushed away from 1.0800 and dropped lower heading towards 1.0750. The price broke the 50-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The spot hovered above its moving averages during the day. The 50 and the 100-EMAs remained bullish while the 200-EMA was flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0800, the support comes in at 1.0750.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI left the neutral territory and stayed within the overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations


Bulls maintained control over the market. We will buy if the EUR/USD does a breakout at the resistance level of 1.8000. A close above the hurdle will trigger gains towards 1.0850. Yellen’s hawkish comments may return sellers to the market. In this scenario we expect a drop below 1.0750. En route to 1.0700.



Pound

General overview

UK’s Manufacturing PMI matched expectations supporting the national currency.

Current situation

The pound erased all its Monday’s losses on Wednesday. The trend is clearly bullish now. Buyers met a barrier at 1.2600 and had to retreat in the Asian session. The cable kept struggling for direction near 1.2600 before London's opening. Buyers managed to break the hurdle in the mid-European session and extended their bullishness afterwards. The GBPUSD pair continued developing well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 200-EMA remained bearish-neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2700, the support comes in at 1.2600.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI was in the overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

Risks for a deeper correction lower in the US currency keep growing. The GBPUSD pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate resistance near 1.2700. A break above the level risks a growth towards the mark at 1.2770.



Yen

Current situation

The USD/JPY pair remained under pressure on Wednesday. The US dollar again lost ground versus the yen on Tuesday. The overnight recovery stalled at 113.60 where the price stayed before European session opening. A fresh selling pressure weighed on the spot pushing it towards 113.00 in the mid-European session. However, bulls are not ready to give up their positions above the 113.00 handle. According to the 4 hours chart the price stayed below the 50, 100 and 200-EMAs. The moving averages headed south in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.

MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. RSI was within the oversold territory favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

The daily technical studies remained in strong bearish setup maintaining risks for fresh attempts lower. We would be selling the USD/JPY pair only if the spot drops below 113.00. The 112.00 handle seems the next probable sellers’ target.



NZD/USD

General overview

BNZ published mixed data on Wednesday. Unemployment Rate showed downbeat results. Employment Change came in line with expectations while Participation Rate grew.

Current situation

The market remained in bulls' hands on Wednesday. The kiwi extended its reversal from Tuesday's low at 0.7250 and had reversed a minor part of its gains by the mid-European session. The spot almost reached 0.7300 when the buying pressure eased. A fresh bout of selling interest emerged in the early NY trades. Sellers seized control pushing the spot to 0.7250. The price bounced off the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The spot stayed between the 100 and the 50-EMAs afterwards. The moving averages remained bullish in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7300, the support comes in at 0.7250.

MACD traded to the upside. The RSI was within the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

A bullish tone prevails in the 4 hours chart. A break above 0.7300 suggests further growth towards 0.7350. Sellers need to break below 0.7250 to ease the current upward pressure.



XAU/USD

Current situation

Gold moved lower on Wednesday retreating from its recent highs. The price touched the support 1210 in the late Asian trades and stayed around the level afterwards. A downward impetus emerged ahead of the NY opening. Gold spot sharply dropped heading towards 1200. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke the 100 and the 50-EMAs upwards. The pair continued developing well above its moving averages. The moving averages kept pointing higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 1220, the support stands at 1210 dollars per ounce.

MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains in the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. RSI consolidated within the overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

The bullish scenario prevailed on Wednesday. Once we break above 1210, we think that the 1220 level will be next. Inability to revive buying momentum may turn the market to the downside. The precious metal may fall to 1200 to gather some steam for more upside action.

 
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

03.02.2017

Euro

General overview

Decline of Unemployment Change in Spain provided a light support for the euro. The euro also took advantage of the US dollar retracement. Investors kept a close eye on Draghi's speech on Thursday.

Current situation

The single European currency opened green against the dollar and extended its bullishness afterwards. Traders pushed the price towards 1.0800 in the Asian session and broke the level post-European open. The price bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The pair continued developing well above its moving averages afterwards. The 50, 100 and 200-EMAs pointed higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0850, the support comes in at 1.0800.

The MACD indicator is bullish and is still in positive territory. RSI consolidated within the overvalued readings and moved higher.

Trading recommendations

In a wider perspective the euro could gain bullish momentum if its stays above the resistance at 1.0800. In this scenario the pair EURUSD may extend its growth to 1.8050. Sellers need to break below 1.0700 to ease the upward pressure and the level 1.0600 to seize control.



Pound

General overview

The BoE kept its rate unchanged at 0.25% on Thursday. The regulators' decision softened the pound. Besides, PMI Construction downbeat data provided additional pressure.

Current situation

The US dollar broad's weakness helped the cable reach fresh multi-month highs on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair kept growing overnight and met a barrier at 1.2700. The pound kept flirting with the hurdle the first part of the day. However, investors did not find any reason to lift the cable higher. The major sharply dropped towards 1.2600 ahead of the NY opening. The 4 hours chart showed that the GBPUSD pair stayed above its moving averages. The 50 and the 100-EMAs headed north while the 200-EMA was flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2600, the support comes in at 1.2500.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI remained within the overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

Technical readings in the 4 hours chart favor an upward extension. We expect the GBPUSD pair to retain bullishness for further gain to 1.2800 after breaking the 1.2700 level. Inability to post fresh gains may cause the sterling to undergo a small bearish correction towards 1.2600 and 1.2500.



Yen

Current situation

The USD/JPY remained under pressure due to the ask sentiment around the dollar. Sellers pushed the spot lower in the Asian session and broke the level 113.00. The pair extended its losses afterwards and reached 112.00 post-European open. The price bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The spot stayed below its moving averages afterwards. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 113.00, the support comes in at 112.00.

MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI was within the oversold territory favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

The outlook will be bearish as long as the price holds below the level 113.00. If the spot fixates below 112.50 a further weakness towards the 112.00 handle is not ruled out. The level 115.00 needs to be regained in order to alleviate downside pressure.



USD/CAD

Current situation

The pair remained in red figures on Thursday. The sellers managed to lead the spot lower in the night. The USD/CAD pair pushed away from 1.3050 and headed towards the immediate handle at 1.2980 where the US dollar found a solid support. After touching the level the pair bounced off and slightly grew. According to the 4 hours chart the price stayed below the moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. The moving averages remained bearish in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 1.3050, the support comes in at 1.2980.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI left the neutral area and stayed within the oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

The bearish trend remained intact. If the 1.2980 support breaks, the price may fall further that should send this market looking for the 1.2910 level.



XAU/USD

General overview

Dovish Fed's remarks coupled with ongoing worries over Trump's policies kept on weighing on the US dollar. BoE's rate decision triggered some volatility in markets maintaining risk-off sentiment among traders. Focus now shifts towards the US Non-Farms payrolls.

Current situation

Gold was stronger on Thursday, trading near local highs against the dollar. Gold spot extended its bullishness in the early trades and reached the mark 1215 dollars per ounce where buying momentum faded for a while. The precious metal extended its gains and broke the 1220 resistance in the late European trades. The metal remained above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and the 200-EMAs headed upwards while the 50-EMA was flat. The resistance exists at 1230, the support stands at 1220 dollars per ounce.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI stayed within the overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

We believe bulls will remain in driver’s seat. A daily close above 1220 will risk the gold price to extend the recovery pace towards 1230 dollars per ounce.

 
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

06.02.2017


Euro

General overview

The US dollar remained better bid on Friday and overwhelmed the Eurozone mixed data. Composite PMI and Composite PMI from Markit came out better-than-expected while Retail Sales report came in red.

Current situation

The overall bullish picture remained intact on Friday. The euro was in green, but kept losing ground in the early trades. Traders pushed the spot to the lower limit of the upward channel at 1.0750. Sellers were struggling hard to break the upward trend line in the European session and managed to partly break it ahead of the NY opening. The price tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart during the European hours. All the moving averages kept pointing higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0750, the support comes in at 1.0700.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overvalued readings and moved south.

Trading recommendations

We favor a short-term bearish bias. Below 1.0750, EURUSD will likely target 1.0700 support.



Pound

General overview

The pound remained under pressure amid a weak Services PMI and a stronger US dollar.

Current situation

The pound sharply dropped on Thursday. After reaching a strong support at 1.2500 traders took a pause awaiting for fresh drivers in the Asian session. A bout of fresh selling interest pushed the spot lower post London’s open. The pound broke the 1.2500 level and advanced towards 1.2450 in the American session. The GBPUSD pair broke the 50-EMA downwards in the 4 hours chart. The spot stayed above the 100 and the 200-EMAs in the European session. The 100-EMA headed higher while the 50 and the 200-EMAs were flat. The resistance lies at 1.2600, the support comes in at 1.2500.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI stayed within the oversold readings close to the neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We expect a clear break below 1.2500 which would indicate that the bearish phase has resumed. As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 1.2400.



Yen

General overview


The US dollar maintained its upbeat tone vs. the yen on expectations of a strong U.S. payrolls report following strong ADP employment data and a solid Initial Jobless Claims report.

Current situation

Technically, the bearish trend remained intact, although the USD/JPY pair continued its recovery on Friday. The price remained in a downward channel trading around its upper limit at 113.00. Traders tested the level 113.00 in the early trades and continued flirting with the hurdle during the European hours. The 4 hours chart showed that the price continued developing well below its moving averages. The 50, 100 and the 200-EMAs kept heading lower in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 113.00, the support comes in at 112.00.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI left the oversold territory and headed upwards.

Trading recommendations

Our next short-term objective for the USD/JPY is 113.50, after which we see the pair extending its rise towards the 114.00 level.



AUD/USD

General overview

Poor Chinese PMI weighed on commodities decreasing demand for commodity-linked currencies, like the Australian Dollar. Moreover, the recovery in the US treasury bond yields supported the US dollar on Friday.

Current situation

The AUD/USD pair traded with mid bearish bias on Friday. Technically, the AUD/USD pair approached multi-month highs. Buyers met a barrier at 0.7700 and failed to retake it. As a result bulls gave up their gains and retreated to 0.7650. The handle halted sellers’ advance holding the price in its region during the European hours. The price spiked in the NY session erasing its daily losses. The AUDUSD pair hovered above its moving averages which were all bullish in the 4 hours timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7700, the support comes in at 0.7650.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator consolidated within the overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations


AUD/USD needs to regain at least the 0.7700 zone to ease the immediate bearish pressure. Conversely, a downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below the support level 0.7650. After a close below the handle we could see the pair extending its declines down to 0.7550.



XAU/USD

General overview

Gold prices retreated further on Friday amid modest US dollar recovery. The US dollar strengthened ahead of official jobs report weighing on dollar-denominated commodities - like gold.

Current situation

The upmove lacked momentum after posting a weekly high at 1220 dollars per ounce. The price retreated below the level where fresh offers pushed the rate lower. The precious metal eased more overnight and had approached 1210 by the European session opening. Sellers met a barrier here and took a breath gathering steam for a fresh leg lower. According to the 4 hours chart the gold metal price stayed above its moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. The 100 and the 200-EMAs headed north while the 50-EMA was bearish-neutral. The resistance exists at 1220, the support stands at 1210 dollars per ounce.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI stayed within the overvalued readings close to the neutral area.

Trading recommendations


A move below 1210 will signal the presence of sellers. A move lower might suggest further weakness of the gold metal price towards the 1200 level.



Brent

General overview

Talks of US sanctions on Iran limited oil prices recovery on Friday.

Current situation

Brent oil prices turned lower on Friday. Buyers failed to break through 57.50 and dropped to the 56.50 dollars per barrel handle which halted its further advance. Bearish views seem to be getting more popular. Sellers kept trying to push the price lower in the NY session. The oil price remained above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50, 100 and the 200-EMAs were bullish-neutral in the same chart. The resistance lies at 57.50, the support comes in at 56.50 dollars per barrel.

The MACD indicator is bullish and is still in positive territory. The RSI consolidated within the overvalued area.

Trading recommendations


Brent price is having difficulties to go any higher. We recommend going short with the first target – 56.50. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 55.50 dollars per barrel.



DAX

General overview

European stocks opened higher expecting strong releases from Eurozone. However, the published mixed data limited stocks growth. In general, financial stocks were mixed while mining stocks were sharply lower on Friday.

Current situation

The index remained under pressure on Friday. DAX traded in a fresh sideways channel between 11700 and 11600 during the day. Any buyers’ attempts to reverse losses failed and the price always returned to a downside. According to the 4 hours chart the benchmark stayed between the 50 and the 100-EMAs. The moving averages kept pointing higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11700, the support stands at 11600.

MACD traded to the downside. The RSI left the oversold readings and entered the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture favors a downward extension. We suppose the index will go to 11600 first. Having overcome the first target the price might advance towards 11550.



S&P500

General overview

US futures edged higher in American session ahead of official job data, hoping to get fresh timing Fed's rate hike.
Current situation

S&P500 was in buy mode on Friday. A fresh buying interest emerged in the night and pushed the benchmark to 2280. The level slowed down bulls' advance holding the price in its region during the European session. S&P500 reclaimed the level in the NA session. The index bounced off the 200-EMA and broke the 50 and 100 EMAs upwards in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and the 200-EMAs were neutral while the 50-EMA moved higher. The resistance is at 2300, the support comes in at 2280.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI oscillator was within the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

We believe that the uptrend will start as soon, as the index rises above the resistance level 2280. The next portable bullish target is 2300.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

07.02.2017

Euro

General overview

The dollar kept weighing on the euro on Monday. The pair weakened amid the US dollar recovery after the recent sell-off. Moreover, the single European currency ignored positive Factory Orders in Germany.

Current situation

The euro turned negative after the opening on Monday. A failure to break above 1.0800 caused some profit-taking making the spot move lower. The price bounced off the 1.0800 hurdle and dropped to 1.0750 in the mid-European session. Sellers extended their gains in the NA session. The EURUSD pair tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and the 200-EMAs were bullish in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0750, the support comes in at 1.0700.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overvalued readings and headed south.

Trading recommendations

The technical picture presents a short-term bearish tone. Bears keep focus at 1.0700. After breaking the level the support 1.0650 might comes into play. A break below 1.0650 may change a market sentiment turning it negative. Nevertheless, we will maintain our positive outlook until we see a break below the mentioned handle.



Pound

General overview

The British pound kept losing ground on Monday after the BoE showed no rush to hike rates and Inflation Report last week.

Current situation

The pound traded mixed on Monday. The cable lost some ground in the early trades and moved lower. A fresh buying interest emerged in early Europe trades and supported the spot. The pair stabilized in the late European hours and remained a few pips below 1.2500 ahead of the North American session. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke the 50-EMA downwards and stayed above the 100 and the 200-EMAs in the first part of the day. The 100-EMA headed north while the 50 and the 200-EMAs were neutral in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.

MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. RSI stayed within the oversold readings close to the neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The bullish trend remained intact despite the recent decline. A close below 1.2500 will generate fresh bearish signal for a further advance, which could extend to 1.2400 barrier. Conversely, a close above 1.2500 will return bullishness to the pair. The spot may recover to 1.2600 in the short-term.



Yen

General overview

The US dollar extended its losses on Monday after unimpressive US jobs report on Friday.

Current situation

The USD/JPY remained in a near-term downward channel on Monday. The spot slightly recovered in the early Asian trades and reversed a minor part of its losses. However, the recovery stalled at 112.78 where the price slowed down and rolled back. A fresh selling pressure in the late European session pushed the spot lower. The price bounced off the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The US dollar continued developing well below its moving averages during the day trades. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed lower while the 200-EMA was bearish-neutral in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 113.00, the support comes in at 112.00.

MACD declined which indicates the sellers’ positions strengthening. RSI was within the oversold territory close to the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

The USD/JPY pair remains bearish for now. The 112.20 mark will need to be retested before a price can drop towards 112.00.



NZD/USD

Current situation

The pair remained in an upward channel on Monday. The New Zealand dollar traded around its recent highs hovering above 0.7300 during the day. According to the 4 hours chart the NZDUSD pair bounced off the 50-EMA and stayed above the moving averages. The 50, 100 and the 200-EMAs kept pointing higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7350, the support comes in at 0.7300.

The MACD indicator was bullish and remained in positive territory. The RSI indicator stayed within the overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

The bullish scenario prevailed on Monday. The first bullish target is 0.7350. After breaking the 0.7350 level a further extension to 0.7400 is not ruled out.



XAU/USD


General overview

The yellow metal edged higher following a weaker-than-expected US wage growth numbers which diminished expectations for near-term Fed rate-hike action.

Current situation

Gold gained additional traction on Monday. Gold spot grew in the Asian session and reached the highest level since November later the day. The price continued developing well above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were flat while the 200-EMA pointed higher in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1230, the support stands at 1220 dollars per ounce.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI consolidated within the overvalued area.

Trading recommendations

Sustained break above 1230 region is seen as minimum requirement needed to confirm bullish resumption. In this scenario, buyers may lead prices towards 1235 in the upcoming sessions.



Brent

General overview

Oil priced edged higher. However, its growth was capped by rising US drilling activity and expectations of US imposing new sanctions on Iran.

Current situation

Brent remained in a familiar consolidation range 56.70 - 57.00 dollars per barrel on Monday. The price was fluctuating between gains and losses during the European session. Sellers took control in the NY session and dragged the price lower. The oil price broke the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The benchmark stayed above its moving averages. 50, 100 and the 200-EMAs kept heading higher in the same chart. The resistance lies at 57.50, the support comes in at 56.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI consolidated within the overvalued area.

Trading recommendations

The oil price eyes strong support at 56.50 dollars per barrel. Its break will determine further bearish direction of the benchmark towards the 55.50 level.



DAX

Current situation

The technical picture presented a slightly bearish tone on Monday. Bears seized control and pushed the price lower. The benchmark pushed away from 11700 and broke 11600 ahead of the NY opening. Sellers touched 11500 in the American session. The benchmark remained between the 50 and the 100-EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.

MACD traded to the downside. The RSI was within the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

Should the benchmark loss more ground and advance below the 11500 level, the decline can extend down to 11400.



NASDAQ

Current situation

The bullish structure remained unchanged. The price remained around its recent highs on Monday. The index stayed above 5140 showing little activity during the day. A bout of fresh selling pressure emerged ahead of the American open and moved NASDAQ lower. The index tested 5140 in the NY session. The index bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The price stayed above its moving averages which kept pointing higher in the same chart. The resistance is at 5180, the support comes in at 5140.

The MACD indicator was bullish and stayed in a positive territory. RSI oscillator stayed within the overvalued readings and headed north.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook remains bullish. We believe that the firm break above 5180 handle would open 5220 area. We will buy until we see a daily close below 5100.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

08.02.2017

Euro

General overview

Industrial Production in Germany showed poor figures pushing the euro lower. Besides, a broad based dollar recovery weighed on the single European currency.

Current situation

The bearish scenario prevailed on Tuesday. The pair was under intense selling pressure the whole day. The euro pushed away from 1.0750 at the daily open and sharply dropped to 1.0700. The handle did not stop sellers who broke it in the early European trades. Bears kept pushing the price lower during the day and tested 1.0650 in the mid-European session. After touching the level the downward impetus lost its strength, the spot had to retreat. The EURUSD pair broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs downwards in the 4 hours chart. The price continued developing well above the 200-EMA afterwards. The moving averages kept pointing higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650.

MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. RSI left the neutral area and headed south.

Trading recommendations

We expect to see renewed bearish pressure. As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 1.0650 and 1.0600 en route.



Pound

General overview

The UK published Like-For-Like Retail Sales and Halifax House Prices. Both indices came in well under expectations. Moreover, Brexit concerns also weighed on the major.

Current situation

The pound lost ground amid broad dollar's strength on Tuesday. The cable bounced off 1.2500 in the early trades and dropped below 1.2400 during the European trades. Sellers continued moving the price lower post London's open heading towards 1.2300. According to the 4 hours chart the price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs downwards and tested the 200-EMA. The 100-EMA headed higher while the 50-EMA pointed lower and the 200-EMA was neutral in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2400, the support comes in at 1.2300.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI stayed within the oversold readings and headed downwards.

Trading recommendations

The price maintained its bearish tone in the 4 hours chart. If the Cable fixates below the support 1.2400, the spot may continue its downward trajectory in the short term. The potential sellers’ target is 1.2300.



Yen

Current situation

The US dollar extended its gains on Tuesday. The US currency found a solid support at 111.50 which rejected the price upwards. The pair slowly grew in the Asian session and accelerated its rally after the European session opening. Buyers continued driving the spot upwards during the day approaching 113.50. The price continued developing well below its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. All the moving averages maintained their bearish slope in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 113.00, the support comes in at 112.00.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced off the oversold territory and advanced north.

Trading recommendations

If bulls retain control over the market, we cannot rule out the chance of breaking the level at 113.00 in the upcoming sessions.



USD/CAD

General overview

Crude oil prices decline added some extra pressure on the Canadian dollar. Moreover, the US dollar strengthening pushed the CAD downwards.

Current situation

The USD/CAD pair extended its near-term upward trajectory on Tuesday. The US dollar opened green versus is Canadian counterpart. The spot was slowly growing in the night and reached 1.3120 before Europe open. Fresh buying pressure around the US dollar boosted USD/CAD to fresh highs. The price spiked and reached 1.3190 post-European opening. The hurdle limited its advance holding the major within its region. The price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs upwards in the 4 hours chart. The USD/CAD pair almost reached the 200-EMA which acts as a resistance now. The 50 and 100 EMAs were turning upwards while the 200-EMA pointed lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 1.3190, the support comes in at 1.3120.

MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains in the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI indicator stayed within the overvalued readings favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

The bullish momentum is likely to be regained in the short-term. To extend its bullishness the USD/CAD pair needs to fixate above 1.3190.



XAU/USD

General overview

Gold prices gave up their recent gains amid the US dollar recovery. However, the decline appeared to be limited as the uncertainty over the US President Donald Trump's policies supported the demand for the metal.

Current situation

Gold stopped its winning streak and showed mild negative bias on Tuesday. The metal gave up its recent gains in the Asian session and retreated a bit towards 1230 afterwards. The 1230 handle slowed sellers' advance holding the gold spot within its region. The 4 hours chart showed that the gold price hovered above its moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards. The moving averages pointed higher in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1240, the support stands at 1230 dollars per ounce.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI consolidated within the overvalued area.

Trading recommendations

The bullish trend remained intact. Our profit-target is at 1240. To ease the current buying pressure the price needs to fixate below 1220 dollars per ounce.



Brent

General overview

The prospects of growing US oil production kept on weighing on black oil. Moreover, investors are still concerned over a global supply glut.

Current situation


Brent stalled its consolidative mode in the Asian session and dropped lower on Tuesday. Sellers moved the benchmark lower and tested 55.50 in the European session. Black gold found decent support at the handle and stayed there for a while. The benchmark broke its moving averages downwards in the 4 hours chart. 50, 100 and the 200-EMAs became neutral in the same chart. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 55.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI left the neutral area and stayed within the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

We believe that a break below the 55.50 level might force the benchmark to resume its downward trajectory towards 54.50 dollars per barrel.



DAX

General overview

European shares edged higher on Tuesday when gains from corporate readings and healthcare sector overwhelmed losses in financial and oil stocks.

Current situation

DAX had a positive day on Tuesday. Sellers failed to retake 11500 handle and gave the way to buyers. The price pushed away from the support and rallied to 11600 during the day. The benchmark bounced off the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs turned neutral while the 200-EMA kept pointing higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.

The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. The RSI was within the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

We prefer to stay bullish for now. A recovery above the 11600 level will favor an advance up to the 11700 region.



S&P500

Current situation

The index was in buy mode on Tuesday. Sellers lost its grip above 2280. Buyers fought back control and pushed the benchmark higher. S&P500 grew and erased all its Monday's losses in the European session. The price bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The index continued developing well above its moving averages. The 50, 100 and the 200-EMAs remained bullish in the same chart. The resistance is at 2300, the support comes in at 2280.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI oscillator stayed within the overvalued readings close and moved higher.

Trading recommendations

The bullish scenario prevailed on Tuesday. A sharp breakout above 2300 could spark a further growth towards 2320 in the coming days.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

09.02.2017


Euro

General overview

The euro maintained its weakness after M. Draghi emphasized the regulator's readiness to increase the current asset purchase program in size or duration. The light calendar and USD dynamics will remain the main drivers in the markets in the near term.

Current situation

The selling pressure around the European currency remained unchanged on Wednesday. The Asian recovery stalled after touching 1.0700. The price found fresh offers around the hurdle and softened a bit in the late Asian session. The single European currency accelerated its decline in the European morning and tested 1.0650. The level limited sellers’ advance for a while. The price bounced off the 100-EMA downwards in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and the 200-EMAs were bullish, while the 50-EMA was neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI was within the oversold readings and moved south.

Trading recommendations

The bearish trend remained intact. We would be selling the pair if the price fixates below 1.0650 level. The EURUSD pair may extend its bearish trajectory towards the 1.0600 handle.



Pound

General overview

The pound jumped to fresh weekly highs following K.Forbes' hawkish (BoE’s External MPC Member) comments who hinted that the regulator may raise rates in response to the weaker pound.

Current situation

The pound bullish spike faded and the price dropped back to 1.2500 in the night. Traders remained equally divided between bulls and bears during the morning hours. The Cable stayed in a tight range around the mentioned handle awaiting for fresh impetus to break higher from the ongoing bullish consolidative phase. The price bounced off the 200-EMA and broke the 100-EMA and tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The spot failed to retake the 50-EMA and rolled back towards the 100-EMA. The 100-EMA pointed higher, the 50-EMA maintained its bearish slope while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI left the oversold readings and entered the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

The GBP/USD pair was unable to climb over 1.2500. A move below the level would suggest a resumption of a downward trajectory towards the 1.2400 support.



Yen

General overview

A risk-on sentiment and a fresh demand for the US Treasury bond yields supported the US dollar afloat above recent lows. Besides, traders preferred to stay neutral ahead of this week's meeting between Japanese PM Shinzo Abe and Donald Trump.

Current situation

The downward structure remained intact on Wednesday. After the recent drop the US dollar managed to recover some ground but failed to advance far away from the 112.00 support region. Fresh bids emerged in an Asian session, prompting a minor-recovery towards 112.50 area. After reaching the 112.50 mark the recovery stalled, the spot remained above the level awaiting for fresh drivers. According to the 1 hour chart the price bounced off the 100-EMA and broke the 50-EMA downwards. All the moving averages kept pointing lower in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 113.00, the support comes in at 112.00.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI was within the oversold territory close to the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

The USDJPY pair is under bullish pressure. Any move above 112.50 would increase chances of testing the 113.00 mark.



AUD/USD

General overview

Buying interest around copper supported the Aussie and collaborated to the pair's recovery on Wednesday. In absence of strong drivers, AUD/USD remained at the mercy of broader market risk sentiment. The US Treasury bond yields demand underpinned the spot as well.

Current situation

The pair maintained its bullish tone on Wednesday. Having found support around 0.7600 the price partly reversed its early losses. The AUD remained in a tight range staying flat below 0.7650 amid consolidative price action during the European hours. The AUD tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The pair stayed above its moving averages during the day. The 50, 100 and the 200-EMAs kept pointing higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7650, the support comes in at 0.7600.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI indicator consolidated within the neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The technical picture presents a bullish tone. All eyes are right now at the resistance level 0.7650
A cut through here will turn attention to the 0.7700 level.



XAU/USD

General overview

Political instability in the EU ahead of the French elections, and uncertainty over the US President political actions boosted the demand for the yellow metal. Moreover, fading expectations of Fed rate-hike action in the near-term weighed on US Treasury bond yields supporting the precious metal.

Current situation

Bulls maintained control over the market on Wednesday. Gold spot found fresh bids around 1230 and managed to erased all Tuesday's losses in the European session. The precious metal grew and refreshed three month highs at 1240 dollars per ounce. The gold price bounced from the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The spot continued developing well above its moving averages during the day. All moving averages were bullish in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1240, the support stands at 1230 dollars per ounce.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI consolidated within the overvalued area.

Trading recommendations

The bullish scenario prevailed on Wednesday. A break above 1240 hurdle risks a growth towards the resistance at 1250 dollars per ounce.



Brent

General overview

Brent oil prices remained under pressure following the bearish API crude inventory report.

Current situation

Brent futures stalled their Asian recovery mode and consolidated in a narrow range above 54.50 handle on Wednesday. The 4 hours chart showed that the oil price remained below its moving averages. The 200 and the 100-EMAs were flat while the 50-EMA pointed lower in the same chart. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel.

The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. The RSI was within the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

The market will probably maintain its recovery pace in the short-term. Once we break above 55.00, we think that the 55.50 mark will be next.



DAX

Current situation

Despite the positive opening the index remained under selling pressure on Wednesday. DAX partly recovered its losses overnight and reached the hurdle at 11600. A fresh selling interest emerged in the late European session pushing the benchmark lower. DAX index stayed between the 100 and the 200-EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were flat while the 200-EMA kept pointing higher. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI was within the oversold area favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

We prefer to stay bearish for now. A firm break below 11500 handle could trigger fresh weakness of the index for attack at 11450.



NASDAQ

General overview

Wall Street maintained its upbeat tone amid quarterly earnings.

Current situation

The bullish market structure remained in place on Wednesday. After posting fresh all-times high the index retreated a bit. Sellers pushed the benchmark below 5180. The current rebound should be considered corrective amid some profit taking price action. According to the 4 hours chart the price hovered above its moving averages. The 50, 100 and the 200-EMAs maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance is at 5180, the support comes in at 5140.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI oscillator stayed within the overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook remained bullish. In the scenario where the buyers keep control the index will advance to 5220 and 5260 en route.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

10.02.2017

Euro

General overview

The US dollar trades against the euro in a narrow range as the political and economic future of the United States became more uncertain. Inventors prefer risk-off sentiment. The market ignored the weak export and trade balance data in Germany. Moreover, Evans and Bullard’s reports (the FOMC representatives) will be under the spotlight later the day.

Current situation

The price was positive during the night trades. Having found fresh bids around 1.0670 the spot turned bullish and rallied to 1.0700. However, a bid tone sharply weakened in the European session. The spot failed to retake 1.0700 and retreated. The 4 hours chart showed that the price continued staying between the 100 and the 200-EMAs during the day. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were neutral while the 200-EMA pointed higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI left the oversold readings and headed north.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook remained bearish. Sellers need to regain 1.0650 to extend gains. A break below the handle will open the way to 1.0600. A move towards 1.0750 and break above the hurdle will neutralize the current downward scenario.



Pound

General overview

British Parliament approved bill without changes to start Brexit (494 votes to 122). The British PM will soon start parting with the European Union. The decision boosted the sterling's growth. Meanwhile, political uncertainty in Europe also contributed the cable growth. Investors’ attention now turns to the Mark Carney’ speech in the evening.

Current situation

The pound maintained its bullish bias in the early trades on Thursday. A fresh buying pressure around 1.2500 pushed the spot upwards. The Cable rallied and reached 1.2600 post London's open. However, the rally seems to have run out of steam ahead of the NY opening. The major slowed down and slightly moved back. The price bounced off the 100-EMA and broke the 50-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The majors stayed above their moving averages afterwards. The 100-EMA was bullish, the 50 and the 200-EMAs remained neutral in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2600, the support comes in at 1.2500.

MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains in the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. RSI left the neutral area and moved north.

Trading recommendations

In a wider perspective the GBPUSD pair could gain bullish momentum, if it recovers above the 1.2600 area, the spot will probably maintain bulls in the driver's seat towards the 1.2700 level.



Yen

General overview

The yen trades vs. the US dollar in a narrow range due to the meeting between Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The Japanese yen seem to benefit from the growing political uncertainty in Europe.

Current situation

The USD/JPY pair remained under pressure on Thursday. The price was flat out hovering above 112.00 during the morning hours. The rise in the dollar demand pushed the majors upwards post-European open. The price continued developing well below its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and the 200-EMAs kept pointing lower in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 113.00, the support comes in at 112.00.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the oversold territory and entered the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

We expect an upward correction which will start as soon as the pair rises above 112.50. The price may extend its rise towards the 113.00 area.



NZD/USD

General overview

The New Zealand dollar significantly fell following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision to leave the rate unchanged at 1.75 percent.

Current situation

The NZD/USD pair maintained its offered tone on Thursday. The kiwi found a solid support at 0.7200 in the night. The price faced upward rejection after touching the level and slightly rolled back staying close to three-week lows. A bout of NZD weakness pressured the spot ahead of the NY opening. The NZD/USD struggled to break below 0.7200 in the second part of the day. According to the 4 hours chart the price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs downwards. The 50 and the100-EMAs were neutral while the 200-EMA kept pointing higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7250, the support comes in at 0.7200.

MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI indicator left the neutral territory and headed south.

Trading recommendations

The NZDUSD pair eyes strong support at 0.7200 level now. However, the major may change its trajectory to bullish. The potential buyers’ targets are 0.7250 and 0.7300.

 
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

13.02.2017

Euro

General overview

French Non-Farm Payrolls showed strong data, however, the euro ignored these figures. The common European currency is under pressure amid growing political risks related to the Presidential elections in France. The upcoming elections in Germany. Netherlands and Italy give additional pressure on the euro. Moreover, the US Dollar price-dynamics is underpinned by Trump upcoming tax reform plan.

Current situation

The US dollar kept getting stronger on Friday. After a night light recovery the euro kept losing its value in the European session. Traders broke the level 1.0650 and continued pushing the price lower in the NY session. The EURUSD pair broke the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs remained bearish-neutral while the 200-EMA was bullish in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0650, the support comes in at 1.0600.

The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. RSI left the neutral territory and stayed within the oversold readings favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 1.0600. A close below the mentioned support could additional weakness towards 1.0550.



Pound

General overview

The UK Industrial Production came in above expectation and provided a temporal support to the pound. However, a large US dollar recovery across the board made the Cable retreat.

Current situation

The pound remained neutral during the Asian hours on Friday. The spot stayed around 1.2500 flirting with the handle to go lower. Traders managed to break the level in the late European session and drove the spot towards 1.2450. According to the 4 hours chart the price broke the 50 and 100 EMAs downwards. The 50 and the 200-EMAs were neutral, while the 100-EMA kept pointing higher in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI entered the neutral territory and stayed there.

Trading recommendations

Any move below 1.2500 would increase chances of testing the 1.2400 handle.



Yen

General overview

The US dollar strengthened after Trump agreed to support “One China” policy. Investors ignored upbeat Japanese Domestic Corporate Goods Price index.

Current situation

The US dollar recovery stalled around 114.00. Buyers did not find any reason to lift the price higher. The pair turned around in the European session and slightly rolled back. The USDJPY pair broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs upwards in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were neutral and the 200-EMA maintained its bearish slope in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.

MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains within the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. RSI was within the overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

We expect to see renewed bullish pressure in the short-term. The next level to focus on is 113.00.



USD/CAD

Current situation

The pair was neutral during the night hours on Friday. The Asian recovery stalled above 1.3120. The US dollar tried to extend its gains, however, its attempts were weak. A fresh selling pressure weighed on the spot and returned the price below 1.3120 in the second part of the day. The US dollar lost ground and almost reached 1.3050 ahead of the NY opening. The 4 hours chart showed that the price bounced off the 50-EMA downwards and tested the 100-EMA. The USDCAD pair stayed below the 100 and the 200-EMAs during the day. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were neutral while the 200-EMA kept pointing lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 1.3120, the support comes in at 1.3050.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI stayed within the overvalued readings close to the neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We prefer to stay bearish for now. We will place sell orders if the USDCAD pair stays below the 1.3120 level. The next sellers’ target is 1.3050.



XAU/USD

General overview

Gold remained under pressure after Trump’s tax announcement. Moreover, the upbeat Chinese Trade Balance added extra pressure.

Current situation

Sellers met a barrier in the 1220 region. Bears were unable to drive the Forex pair lower and retreated giving the way to buyers. The price bounced off 1220 dollars per ounce and reversed some of its recent losses. The gold price bounced from the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The spot continued developing well above its moving averages during the day. The 50 and 200-EMAs were bullish while the 100-EMA remained neutral in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1230, the support stands at 1220 dollars per ounce.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI consolidated within the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

The bullish scenario prevailed on Friday. A close above 1230 will trigger fresh gains towards 1240 dollars per ounce.



Brent

General overview

The upbeat Chinese oil imports data supported oil prices. OPEC and non-OPEC members production decline added additional impetus to black gold.

Current situation


Brent maintained its bullish sentiment on Friday. The price bounced off 55.50 dollars per barrel at the daily open and climbed above 56.50 in the NY session. However, Brent lost some vigour above 56.50 and fell on profit-taking action. The 4 hours chart showed that the benchmark broke its moving averages upwards. The moving averages remained mixed in the same chart. The resistance lies at 57.50, the support comes in at 56.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. The RSI left the neutral area and moved upwards.

Trading recommendations


The technical picture presents a slightly bullish tone. Brent oil prices now seem to be heading towards its immediate support near 55.50. To return control buyers need to retake 56.50 dollars per barrel.



DAX

Current situation

Despite the positive sentiment at the open the index turned bearish during the late European hours. DAX gapped upwards at the daily open and briefly continued its upward trajectory. The price tested 11700 and moved back immediately after the level test. Sellers seized control and pushed the benchmark downwards later the day. The index broke the 100 and the 50-EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The benchmark stayed above its moving averages during the day. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were flat while the 200-EMA was bullish in the same chart. The resistance exists at 11700, the support stands at 11600.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. The RSI left the neutral area and headed north.

Trading recommendations

We prefer the scenario where the buyers keep control over the index. We expect further upwards moving towards the 11800 level.



NASDAQ

General overview

Wall Street opened in green on Friday after D. Trump said that he will start a tax reform plan in the coming weeks.

Current situation

Bulls gave up their recent gains and slightly retreated on Friday. The price rolled back below its immediate support - 5220 and stayed there flat the whole day. The benchmark hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and the 200-EMAs maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance is at 5220, the support comes in at 5180.

The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI oscillator stayed within the overvalued readings favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

We await a break above 5220 level to trigger another leg higher towards the 5260 hurdle. The next potential buyers’ target is 5300.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

14.02.2017


Euro

General overview

The euro reversed a minor part of its losses following the results of Abe-Trump meeting. Meanwhile, dispute about helping Greece weighing on the euro. All eyes are on Germany GDP now where analysts predict the growth in the 4-th quarter.

Current situation

The EUR/USD pair preserved its undertone on Monday. The price remained in a descending channel. The euro found a solid support at 1.0600 and bounced off the level at the daily open. The spot approached the upper limit of a downward channel post-European open. The euro found fresh offers ahead of the NY opening and extended its losses afterwards. The major failed to retake the 200-EMA and pushed away from it in the 4 hours chart. The spot stayed below its moving averages during the day. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. The 100 and the 200-EMAs pointed higher while the 50-EMA pointed lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0650, the support comes in at 1.0600.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI indicator consolidated within oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

From a wider perspective, the euro is expected to remain exposed to further downside risks. The technical picture presents a mild bearish tone. A failure to hold above 1.0650 level risks a slide to 1.0600 mark and 1.0550 mark en route.



Pound

General overview

The USD and UK's economic calendars were empty. The trading was influenced by the dollar fluctuations and a risk-on tendency. The market will be focused on UK inflation report. Traders expect to see a growth in January comparing to the previous year.

Current situation

The price turned bullish in the early trades on Monday. The pair met extra buying pressure at the weekly opening. Buyers pushed the price upwards and broke 1.2500 in the Asian trades. The bears slightly loosened their grip in the early European trades. However, a fresh selling interest returned the cable below 1.2500 in the American session. The price bounced off the 100 and the 50-EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The major stayed around the 50 and the 100-EMAs during the day. The 50-EMA headed lower while the 100 and the 200-EMAs maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI indicator remained within the neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The GBPUSD pair seems unable to climb above 1.2500. A downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below the support level 1.2400. Should that level break down the next bearish target is 1.2300.



Yen

General overview

The dollar rose against the yen following a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The Japanese GDP came in slightly below expectations adding some extra pressure to the yen.

Current situation

The Japanese currency maintained control of the flows. Despite the positive opening the bid tone did not last long. Buyers tested the level 114.00 in the Asian session but failed to reclaim it. Sellers fought back control and pushed the spot to the opening prices in the early European session. According to the 4 hours chart the USDJPY continued developing well above the 50 and the 100-EMAs. The 50 and the 100-EMAs remained neutral while the 200-EMA kept pointing lower in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.

The MACD indicator is bullish and is still in positive territory. RSI was within the overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

A close above 114.00 level may generate fresh bullish signal for further advance, which could extend to 115.00 hurdle.



AUD/USD

Current situation

The AUD failed to continue its upward trajectory when it met a solid barrier at 0.7700. The buying momentum eased and the spot retreated to 0.7650 on Monday. The AUDUSD pair tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The spot remained above its moving averages. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7700, the support comes in at 0.7650.

MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains within the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI left the neutral area and stayed within the overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

Inability to break above 0.7700 might force the AUD/USD pair to resume its downward trajectory towards 0.7600 and 0.7550 levels.



XAU/USD

General overview

Gold prices weakened on Monday following Trump's last actions which reduced investors’ fears regarding his controversial policies. All eyes are on Janet Yellen's speech on Tuesday.

Current situation

The bullish spike lost its legs a few pips below 1240 dollars per ounce. Buyers failed to extend its recovery and moved back. The precious metal returned to 1230 and stayed within its region ahead of the US session opening. A fresh selling interest emerged in the American session and drove the metal towards 1220. The 4 hours chart showed that the gold price bounced off the 50-EMA upwards. All moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1230, the support stands at 1220 dollars per ounce.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI consolidated within the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

We prefer to stay bearish for now. The 1220 level seems to be the next probable bearish target. The price may extend its decline towards the 1210 area in the coming sessions.



Brent

General overview

Oil prices edged lower on Monday on supply concerns. The price weakened despite the recent output falls. We believe Brent lost ground amid increased drilling activity in the U.S.

Current situation

A consolidation phase did not last too long. After staying a while above 56.50 dollars per barrel the price dropped back below the level during the European morning trades. Sellers managed to push the benchmark to 56.00 first. The ask sentiment remained intact in the second part of the day. Brent kept losing its ground in the North American session. Brent oil price broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100 and 200 EMAs in the NY session. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 55.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains within the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI left the overvalued readings heading south.

Trading recommendations

The benchmark needs to consolidate below the 56.00 zone to ease the recnet bullish pressure. As the most probable scenario we expect further easing of the oil price towards the 55.50 mark.



DAX

General overview

European stocks edged higher on Monday amid higher copper prices. Energy stocks and financial stocks traded mixed on Monday.

Current situation

The market looks very bullish now. Buyers managed to break the 11700 level and pushed the price higher in the late European session. DAX extended its bullishness during the day and reached 11800 at the NY opening. The index remained above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were flat while the 200-EMA maintained its bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance exists at 11800, the support stands at 11700.

MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains within the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI consolidated within the overvalued territory.

Trading recommendations

We expect to see renewed bullish pressure. If the bullish tone persists we expect a breakout of the level 11800.



S&P500

General overview

Risk-on mode coupled with last D.Trump's actions supported Wall Street sending the stocks to fresh all-time highs.

Current situation

S&P500 held a bullish tone on Monday. The price retreated from its recent highs but remained in its upward channel in the Asian session. The lower limit of the channel stopped sellers and rejected the price during the European trades. The benchmark had reversed a large part of its losses by the NY opening. The price hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. All the moving averages remained bullish in the same chart. The resistance is at 2320, the support comes in at 2300.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI oscillator stayed within the overvalued readings favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook remains bullish, for rise towards 2340 resistance area.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

15.02.2017

Euro

General overview

The euro could not continue its rally and went down after the downbeat Germany and Eurozone data. The preliminary Eurozone GDP for the 4th quarter came in below expectations. The Eurozone Economic Sentiment for February declined as well.

Current situation

The euro closed on a weak note on Monday. Sellers met a barrier at 1.0600 and failed to retake it. After a brief consolidation phase fresh bids around 1.0600 helped buyers to raise the spot and to reverse a minor part of its losses in the Asian session on Tuesday. However, the upward momentum ran out of steam soon and the EUR/USD softened erasing all its daily gains. The single European currency returned to 1.0600 in the mid-European session. The price tested the 200-EMA but failed to reclaim the moving. The spot bounced off the 200-EMA and headed downwards. The 100 and the 200-EMAs remained bullish while the 50-EMA headed south in the mentioned timeframe. Moreover, the 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards which is another sell signal. The resistance is at 1.0650, the support comes in at 1.0600.

MACD declined which indicates the sellers’ positions strengthening. RSI indicator stayed within oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

We believe that a bearish trend will remain intact in the near term. A clear break below 1.0600 would indicate that the bearish phase has resumed. The majors may extend their decline towards the 1.0550 handle.



Pound

General overview

The pound fell on the back of disappointing inflation data. The UK’s inflation accelerated to its highest level in more than two years in January. Annual increase in January surpassed its previous figures but remained below the forecast.

Current situation

The cable extended its recovery in the Asian session and reached 3-day highs around 1.2550 where the spot ran through fresh offers. The pound returned under selling pressure in the early European trades. Sellers moved the GBP/USD pair lower and broke 1.2500 with London opening. The spot extended its losses afterwards and posted a daily low at 1.2450. After touching the mark the downward momentum lost its legs allowing buyers to recover a bit. According to the 4 hours chart the price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs downwards. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. The 50-EMA pointed lower while the 100 and the 200-EMAs headed north in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.

MACD indicator remained at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI indicator left the neutral territory and moved south.

Trading recommendations

The technical picture presents a bearish tone. If the GBPUSD pair fixates below the 1.2500 level the pound may extend its weakness. The potential sellers’ targets are 1.2400 and 1.2350.



Yen

General overview

The U.S. dollar fell vs. the Japanese currency. Japanese Industrial production exceeded investors’ expectations providing a moderate support for the major.

Current situation

The USD/JPY pair maintained its ask tone on Tuesday. Inability to break above 114.00 returned sellers to markets pushing the spot to fresh lows. The pair extended its bearishness in the Asian session and dropped to 113.20 where sellers took a pause post-European opening. The USDJPY pair found a solid support at the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The spot stayed between the 200 and the 100-EMAs during the day trades. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were flat and the 200-EMA headed south in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overvalued readings and entered the neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The bullish momentum is likely to be regained. A daily close above 114.00 would risk further advance up to the 114.50 region.



NZD/USD

Current situation

The NZD/USD pair maintained its gloomy trend on Tuesday. The price is in a short-term downward channel. The major bounced off the lower limit of the channel on Monday and reached its upper one in the Asian session on Tuesday. The NZD failed to break the upper band and rolled back staying within its region. The 4 hours chart showed that the price found a decent support at the 200-EMA. The moving averages rejected the pair upwards. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. The 100 and the 200-EMAs headed north while the 50-EMA pointed lower. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7200, the support comes in at 0.7150.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI stayed within the oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

All eyes are right now at the support level 0.7150. A cut through here will turn attention to the 0.7100 level.



XAU/USD

General overview

Gold prices moderately rebounded on Tuesday as investors focused on Janet Yellen’s remarks to get some clues on the timing of the next rate hike.

Current situation

Gold prices stalled its recovery mode and traded sideways near 1230 region in the Asian session. The precious metal traded modestly flat during the European hours. Gold bulls seemed to have taken a breath from Monday’s sharp decline and consolidated their gains. The precious metal tested the 50-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The XAU/USD pair was above its moving averages during the day. All the moving averages kept pointing higher in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1230, the support stands at 1220 dollars per ounce.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI left the oversold territory and entered the neutral one.

Trading recommendations

A move below 1220 level would indicate that immediate upward pressure eased. The next portable bearish target is 1210 dollars per ounce.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

16.02.2017

Euro

General overview

The U.S. dollar remained near its fresh highs against other majors. Janet Yellen’s "hawkish" comments supported the US dollar reviving hopes for the rates hike in March. The information from Spain added additional pressure on the euro as consumer price index in January fell despite the forecasts.

Current situation

After touching the level 1.0550 the euro bounced off and was able to reverse a minor part of its losses. The overnight’s recovery attempt stalled just under 1.0600 barrier. The pair came under renewed selling pressure and slipped into negative territory in the late Asian session. Sellers continued pushing the price lower and tested 1.0550 in the late European session. The major continued developing well below its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100-EMAs maintained their bearish slope while the 200-EMA kept pointing higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0600, the support comes in at 1.0550.

The MACD indicator is bearish and is still in negative territory. RSI indicator stayed within oversold readings favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

The price maintained its bearish tone in the 4 hours chart. A decisive break below 1.0550 level is likely to accelerate the slide towards 1.0500.



Pound

General overview

The pound updated its lows on the back of mixed employment statistics. The UK's unemployment rate remained unchanged in December while Claimant Count Change dropped stronger than expected. Moreover, the major got under selling pressure after Janet Yellen's statements on Tuesday.

Current situation

A brief phase of night consolidation ended during European morning trade. The pound faced further downside pressure and accelerated its decline. The price touched the level 1.2400 after London's opening. The GBPUSD pair stayed below the 50 and the 100-EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA headed south while the 100 and the 200-EMAs pointed higher in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.

The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. RSI indicator left the neutral territory and stayed in the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

The bearish scenario prevailed on Wednesday. After a close below the support at 1.2400 we could see GBP/USD extending its decline down to 1.2300.



Yen

General overview

The pair updated fresh highs in the light of a stronger dollar after Yellen's hawkish remarks. Her speech revived market expectations for the rate hike in March.

Current situation

We maintain a near-term positive bias for the USD/JPY pair. After Tuesday's rally the pair went back and forth in a 30-pips narrow range in the night session. The major remained range-bound to higher in the European one. A fresh buying interest emerged in the late European session giving the spot an upward impetus. The 4 hours chart showed that the USDJPY pair broke all the moving averages upwards. The 50-EMA pointed higher, the 100-EMA was flat and 200-EMA moved lower in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI consolidated within the overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook remained bullish for a rise towards 115.00 resistance area. A break above the level risks a growth towards the 116.00 hurdle.