Daily Market Analytics and Trading Recommendations by Tifia Company

#81
WTI: Current Dynamics

04/22/2019


In view of the celebration of Catholic Easter (today is the Second Day of Catholic Easter - Easter Monday), the activity of participants in the financial market is small, and the exchanges and banks in Catholic countries are closed.

However, it is worth noting the sharp increase in oil prices from the opening of today's trading day on the background of the news regarding the possible cancellation of indulgences by the US on Iranian sanctions.

At the beginning of the European trading session, the price of WTI crude oil is near the mark of 65.46 dollars per barrel.

Against the background of geopolitical risks that are gaining momentum in the supply of oil, the rally in oil prices may continue. A further rise in oil prices is likely, despite the achievement of new local maxima.



Long-term positive dynamics persist above the key support level of 59.50 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart, Fibonacci 50% level of the upward correction to a fall from the highs of the last few years near the 76.80 level to the support level near the 42.14 mark). Mostly upward trend in the price of WTI crude oil. Long positions are preferred.

Support Levels: 63.50, 61.70, 59.50, 56.50, 55.40

Resistance Levels: 66.00, 68.00



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 62.80. Stop Loss 66.20. Take-Profit 61.70, 59.50, 56.50, 55.40

Buy Stop 66.20. Stop Loss 62.80. Take-Profit 68.00, 73.00, 76.00



 
#82
S&P500: stock index growth slowed

04/23/2019

Current situation


After many days of growth today, the major US stock indices are trading in a narrow range, while maintaining a positive trend.

On Monday, the indices received an additional positive impetus due to the growth of shares in the oil and gas sector due to the jump in oil prices at the beginning of the week.

Oil prices rose sharply after the White House announced that it cancels exceptions to the sanctions on imports of Iranian oil.

Nevertheless, the growth of the indices in recent days has slowed. Investors are waiting for new drivers. On Friday, data on US GDP for the 1st quarter will be published. It is expected that GDP growth slowed down in the 1st quarter to +1.8% versus +2.2% in the 4th quarter of last year. This is negative information for the stock market.

If the data will be even weaker, then this may cause a fall in stock indices.



On Tuesday, the S&P500 is trading in a narrow range near the level of 2905.0. Long-term positive dynamics remains above the key support level of 2753.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

However, any negative macroeconomic information or weak reporting by large American companies, which is expected later this week, may cause a decrease in indices.

The first signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 2898.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

Support Levels: 2898.0, 2883.0, 2860.0, 2830.0, 2753.0, 2676.0

Resistance Levels: 2918.0, 2936.0



Trading scenarios


Sell Stop 2879.0. Stop Loss 2918.0. Objectives 2860.0, 2830.0, 2753.0, 2676.0

Buy Stop 2918.0. Stop Loss 2879.0. Objectives 2936.0



 
#83
USD/CAD: Market Expectations

24/04/2019


On Wednesday, the US dollar continued to strengthen after last week's strong data on US retail sales and after the publication of weak Australian inflation figures on Wednesday, which caused a sharp drop in AUD.

On Wednesday, the decision on rates is made by the Bank of Canada. It will be published at 14:00 (GMT). It is expected that the rate of the Bank of Canada will remain at the same level of 1.5%.

In March, the Bank of Canada did not change its monetary policy. Earlier this month, the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz again touched upon the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, recalling that "in March, following the next meeting of the Bank of Canada, we stated that the economic outlook still requires maintaining interest rates below the neutral range".

The April report of Statistics Canada pointed to a slowdown in the Canadian economy in 4Q. Canada's GDP declined in December by -0.1% and grew in the 4th quarter by only 0.4% (the forecast was +1.2% and +2.0% in the 3rd quarter).

In their accompanying statement and report on changes in monetary policy, representatives of the Bank of Canada will explain the position of the bank and assess the current economic situation in the country. The hard tone of the accompanying statement of the Bank of Canada regarding rising inflation and the prospects for further monetary tightening will cause a strengthening of the Canadian dollar. If the Bank of Canada signals to extend the period for maintaining a soft monetary policy or the possibility of a rate cut, the Canadian currency will decline.




USD / CAD increased during the Asian session. In case of a successful breakdown of the resistance level 1.3450 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the growth of the pair in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700) USD / CAD will go towards the resistance levels 1.3660 (2018 highs), 1.3790 (2017 highs of the year).

Sales can be renewed after the breakdown of short-term support levels of 1.3376 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.3352 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) with targets at the support levels of 1.3272, 1.3220. So far, long positions are preferable.

Support Levels: 1.3400, 1.3376, 1.3352, 1.3300, 1.3272, 1.3220

Resistance Levels: 1.3450, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 1.3350. Stop Loss 1.3460. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3272, 1.3220

Buy Stop 1.3460. Stop Loss 1.3350. Take-Profit 1.3500, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790





 
#84
EUR/USD: Current Dynamics

04/25/2019


While disappointing macro data continue to come from Europe and from other countries with the largest global economy, indicating slower economic growth and inflation, more and more investors prefer the dollar.

On Wednesday, the IFO published another block of macro data for Germany, according to which the German business sentiment index IFO in April was 99.2 against 99.6 in March and the forecast of 99.9.

“The German economy continues to lose momentum", says IFO President Clemens Fust.

The slowdown of the German economy, in turn, raises concerns about the weak growth of the entire economy of the Eurozone, and the European Central Bank may be required to further mitigate monetary policy.

On Wednesday, the EUR / USD pair reached another multi-month low near the 1.1140 mark, and on Thursday its decline continues. At the beginning of the European session, the Eurodollar trades near the 1.1130 mark.

Meanwhile, the US dollar is growing, and futures for the DXY dollar index is trading at the beginning of the European session, near the 97.96 mark, 90 points higher than the opening price of the current week.



If the US GDP index for Q1, which will be published on Friday at 12:30 GMT, coincides with the forecast (+ 2.1%) or turns out to be better than it, then the strengthening of the dollar and the fall in EUR / USD will continue. Otherwise, we can expect a rebound of EUR / USD and the beginning of an upward correction with targets at resistance levels of 1.1190, 1.1210, 1.1230 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1270 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23, 6% of the correction to a fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014).

Further growth of EUR / USD is unlikely. Most likely, further weakening of EUR / USD with targets located at support levels of 1.1100, 1.1000.

Support Levels: 1.1120, 1.1100, 1.1000

Resistance Levels: 1.1190, 1.1210, 1.1230, 1.1270, 1.1285, 1.1370, 1.1425



Trading recommendations


Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Take-Profit 1.1120, 1.1100, 1.1000

Buy Stop 1.1210. Stop Loss 1.1170. Take-Profit 1.1230, 1.1270, 1.1285





 
#85
NZD/USD: Current Dynamics

04/26/2019


As reported at the start of the Sydney trading session on Friday (22: 445 GMT) by the Statistics Bureau of New Zealand, New Zealand’s foreign trade surplus in March was 922 million New Zealand dollars against a deficit of -68 New Zealand dollars in February (the forecast was 131 million New Zealand dollars). New Zealand exports rose by NZ $ 99 million, while imports declined by NZ $ 1 million.

The publication of positive statistics on foreign trade led to the growth of the New Zealand dollar, which also strengthened against the USD.

However, the focus of traders on Friday is the publication of data on US GDP (at 12:30 GMT). It is expected that GDP grew in Q1 by 2.1% (against a growth of + 2.2% in the previous quarter).

GDP data can support the dollar and lower expectations for the Fed to cut rates in December 2019. But the dollar may fall sharply if GDP data turns out to be much weaker than the forecast. The likelihood of such a scenario cannot be excluded, since usually growth in the 1st quarter is the weakest for the year.

In this case, profit will begin to be fixed in long positions for USD, which will cause its decline at the end of the trading week.



NZD / USD is growing for the second day in a row, developing an upward correction after a significant decline this month. A break of the nearest short-term strong resistance level of 0.6666 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) may trigger a further rise to the resistance level of 0.6745 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) and to the balance zone near the key level of 0.6800 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) with the prospect of further growth to resistance levels 0.6865 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014; the lows of the wave are near the level of 0.6260), 0.6935, 0.6980 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.7060 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

An alternative scenario implies a breakdown of the local support level of 0.6575 and a decline to the support levels of 0.6510, 0.6430.

Support levels: 0.6630, 0.6575, 0.6510, 0.6430

Resistance levels: 0.6660, 0.6700, 0.6745, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060



Trading recommendations


Sell Stop 0.6620. Stop Loss 0.6670. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6575, 0.6510, 0.6430

Buy Stop 0.6670. Stop Loss 0.6620. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6745, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060





 
#86
WTI: Current Dynamics

04/29/2019


On Monday, oil prices are rising again after a strong fall the day before. Investors were frightened by Donald Trump’s statement on Friday that he once again offered OPEC to lower oil prices. “Gasoline prices are falling. I called OPEC and said that we need to lower them (oil prices). You (OPEC) need to lower them”, Trump said.

Earlier, President Trump repeatedly appealed to OPEC (on his Twitter account) to increase production and thereby help lower prices. And every time the oil market reacted to this by falling quotes. Also happened this time.

However, Saudi Arabia refused to give an obligation to increase production, and OPEC reported that Trump no longer turned to this organization with new calls with an increase in oil supplies.

According to Baker Hughes’s Friday data, the number of drilling rigs in the United States last week fell by 20 and reached an annual minimum of 805. These data, indicating slowing production in the United States, along with risks of disruptions in oil supplies from Libya and Venezuela, should also support oil quotes.

On Wednesday, May 1 (14:30 GMT) the next weekly report of the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy will be published. Stocks are expected to increase by 2.093 million barrels. This is negative information for oil prices. If the forecast is not confirmed, then the price of oil expects another wave of growth.

Since November, Iranian oil exports have declined from 2.3 million barrels per day to 1.2 million barrels per day in March. The new US approach to solving the problem of reducing the export of Iranian oil (last Monday, the White House announced that the US will not extend temporary permits to import Iranian oil, which expires on May 2) could trigger a new reduction in Iranian oil exports, from 1 million barrels per day up to 500,000 barrels per day.



On Friday, the price dropped sharply, breaking through the strong support level of 63.50 (Fibonacci level 61.8%). Earlier, the price of WTI crude oil reached $66.50 per barrel, a new multi-month high.

The price maintains a positive trend, being above the key support level of 59.50 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart, Fibonacci 50% of the upward correction to a fall from the highs of the last few years near the 76.80 mark to the support level near the 42.14 mark). From a strong short-term support level of 61.95 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) a rebound and renewed growth is possible.

Only a breakdown of support levels of 56.50 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart), 55.40 (Fibonacci 38.2%) will revive the bearish trend.

Above the support level of 61.95 long positions are preferable.

Support Levels: 61.95, 59.50, 56.75, 55.40

Resistance Levels: 63.50, 64.40, 66.50, 68.00



Trading recommendations


Sell Stop 61.60. Stop Loss 63.60. Take-Profit 59.50, 56.75, 55.40

Buy Stop 63.60. Stop Loss 61.80. Take-Profit 64.40, 66.50, 68.00



 
#87
USD/CAD: Before Important Events

30/04/2019


According to data published at the beginning of today's Asian session, the official Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the non-manufacturing sector in China fell to 54.3 in April from 54.8 in March. The index for the non-production sphere reflects the dynamics of activity in such areas as retail, air travel, software development, real estate market and construction. The decline was due to a weakening of demand and activity in construction.

The official PMI for the manufacturing sector in China also fell in April, to 50.1 from 50.5 in March. The decline in the index was due to the weakening of production and domestic demand.

According to Caixin, PMI for China's manufacturing sector in April was 50.2 against 50.8 in March. Unlike the official index, which reflects the dynamics of activity of large state-owned companies, PMI Caixin pays more attention to the status of private producers.

The data presented caused a short-term strengthening of the US dollar, primarily against the RMB and commodity currencies, including the Canadian dollar.

In the course of the European session, the dollar is falling again. Investors are switching their attention to future important events. On Wednesday (18:00 GMT) the decision of the Fed on the interest rate will be published, and on Friday (12:30 GMT) - data from the US labor market.

Some economists expect the Fed to cut rates in December due to lower US inflation rates. Comments by Fed officials and labor market data will provide insight into the current state of the US economy and give the dollar a new impulse, either for growth or for decline.



Despite the current decline, USD / CAD maintains a long-term positive trend, trading above key support levels of 1.3280 (EMA144), 1.3230 (EMA200 on the daily chart). The breakdown of local resistance levels of 1.3480, 1.3520 will be a signal for the resumption of long positions with targets at resistance levels of 1.3660 (highs of 2018), 1.3790 (highs of 2017).

Support Levels: 1.3433, 1.3400, 1.3376, 1.3300, 1.3280, 1.3230

Resistance Levels: 1.3480, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 1.3425. Stop-Loss 1.3490. Take-Profit 1.3400, 1.3376, 1.3300, 1.3280, 1.3230

Buy Stop 1.3490. Stop Loss 1.3425. Take-Profit 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790





 
#88
EUR/USD: Current Dynamics

Eurodollar continues to decline. At the beginning of the European session on Friday, EUR / USD is trading at 1.3020. Pending publication (12:30 GMT) of a report from the US labor market, trading volumes are declining. If the report (average hourly wage, the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector, the unemployment rate) will be better than the forecast (+ 0.3% (against + 0.1% in March) / 180,000 (against 196,000 in March ) / 3.8% (against 3.8% in March)), then the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of EUR / USD will continue.

The alternative scenario implies a rebound and the beginning of an upward correction of EUR / USD with targets at resistance levels of 1.1190, 1.1200 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1210, 1.1244 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). A more distant goal of the correction is resistance levels of 1.1255 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900 started in May 2014), 1.1360 (ЕМА144), 1.1410 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Below resistance level 1.1285 short positions are preferable.

Support Levels: 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000

Resistance Levels: 1.1190, 1.1200, 1.1210, 1.1244, 1.1285, 1.1360, 1.1410



Trading recommendations


Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.1220. Take-Profit 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000

Buy Stop 1.1220. Stop-Loss 1.1155. Take-Profit 1.1244, 1.1285, 1.1360, 1.1410





 
#89
XAU/USD: current dynamics

06/05/2019


US President Donald Trump once again shocked the markets with his statement. On Sunday, he tweeted: “For 10 months, China paid the US $ 50 billion in high-tech products at a rate of 25% and 10% in other products worth $ 200 billion. These payments partially explain our huge economic success. These 10% will increase to 25% on Friday". He also wrote about the imminent imposition of duties in the amount of 25% on imports of goods that were not subject to duties from China in the amount of $ 325 billion.

Chinese yuan and Chinese stock indexes collapsed at the opening of the trading day on Monday.

Quotes of gold again crawled up. The pair XAU / USD at the beginning of the European session was trading near the mark of 1282.00, above the key support level of 1275.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

Above the key support levels of 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), 1275.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the upward trend prevails. The XAU / USD growth targets are resistance levels of 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00 (highs of February and 2019).

An alternative scenario involves the breakdown of the support level of 1268.00 and

decrease of XAU / USD in the direction of the important support level of 1248.00 (Fibonacci 50%). Breakdown of this level will return XAU / USD to the global bearish trend with targets at support levels of 1197.00 (November lows), 1185.00 (Fibonacci 23.6%), 1160.00 (2018 lows).

Support Levels: 1279.00, 1277.00, 1275.00, 1268.00, 1248.00

Resistance Levels: 1288.00, 1296.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 1274.00. Stop Loss 1288.00. Take-Profit 1268.00, 1248.00, 1234.00, 1220.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00

Buy Stop 1288.00. Stop Loss 1274.00. Take-Profit 1296.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00





 
#90
NZD/USD: Current Dynamics

05/07/2019


On Sunday, US President Donald Trump unpleasantly surprised investors with two Twitter messages that by Friday duties on Chinese goods would be increased. Trump's statements provoked a sharp drop in many global markets.

US Trade Representative Robert Lightheiser stated that in recent days "China has retreated from its promises". According to Lightheiser, duties on Chinese goods will be increased on Friday, as Trump warned.

The economy of New Zealand is closely connected with the economy of China, which is the largest buyer of raw materials and food (primarily meat and dairy) goods from New Zealand. Therefore, any negative information from China also negatively affects the NZD quotes.

On Tuesday, NZD / USD declines again after falling the previous day. The next meeting of the RBNZ will be held on Wednesday, and the decision on the rate of the RBNZ will be published on Wednesday at 02:00 (GMT). Probably, the rate will be reduced by 0.25% to 1.5%.

Currently, NZD / USD is again attempting to break the local support level of 0.6600. Its breakthrough may trigger a further decline to support levels of 0.6510, 0.6430.

So far, short positions look preferable.

Support levels: 0.6575, 0.6510, 0.6430

Resistance levels: 0.6660, 0.6700, 0.6745, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060



Trading scenarios


Sell Stop 0.6590. Stop Loss 0.6670. Take-Profit 0.6575, 0.6510, 0.6430

Buy Stop 0.6670. Stop Loss 0.6590. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6745, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060





 
#91
S&P500: Current Situation

05/08/2019


In April, the S&P500 updated the annual and absolute maximum near the 2959.0 mark. On Wednesday, the decline in the S&P500 continues despite the fact that, overall, the positive trend continues.

While the S&P500 index is trading above the key support level of 2770.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the long-term positive trend remains. Long positions are preferred above this level.

Nevertheless, negative information, first of all, the negative course of negotiations between US and Chinese trade representatives, as well as negative economic news from the US, will cause a decrease in indices, and, as the worst-case scenario, will provoke another wave of decline.

The indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the daily, 4-hour charts turned to the short positions, signaling a likely continuation of the decline.

On Wednesday, the publication of important macro data is not planned, and Europe celebrates Victory Day. The decline in world and US indices may continue, while representatives of China and the United States will seek a solution to the situation.

Support Levels: 2860.0, 2810.0, 2770.0, 2720.0

Resistance Levels: 2885.0, 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0



Trading recommendations


Sell Stop 2858.0. Stop Loss 2902.0. Objectives 2810.0, 2770.0, 2720.0

Buy Stop 2902.0. Stop Loss 2858.0. Objectives 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0

 
#92
AUD/USD remains in a long-term bearish trend.

05/10/2019


On Friday, the United States raised duties on imports of Chinese goods in the amount of $ 200 billion from 10% to 25%, as previously promised by US President Donald Trump. He also said on Thursday that the US will introduce new duties in the amount of 25% on the import of Chinese goods in the amount of $ 325 billion. Thus, all goods imported from China to the United States will be subject to duties of 25%.

The foreign exchange market, on the whole, on Friday rather restrainedly reacted to this news, since it was already mainly taken into account in prices.

Meanwhile, the US trade representative Robert Lighthizer and the country's finance minister Stephen Mnuchin met with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and agreed to continue the discussion on Friday. This allows us to preserve hope for further progress in the negotiations and the fact that both parties will come to a solution to the conflict.

From the news today, investors will also pay attention to the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of data on consumer inflation in the United States. It is expected that the consumer price index rose in April by + 0.4% (+ 2.1% in annual terms). If the data turns out to be better than the forecast, then the USD will strengthen, including with respect to AUD. With the escalation of international trade wars, the American dollar is in demand and looks more preferable than AUD.

AUD / USD remains in a long-term bearish trend. At the beginning of the European session on Friday, AUD / USD is trading near the 0.7000 mark.

Below resistance levels 0.7011 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.7065 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) short positions are preferable.

Breakdown of the local support level of 0.6980 will increase the risks of further decline towards support levels of 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (lows of 2016).

Support Levels: 0.6980, 0.6910, 0.6830

Resistance Levels: 0.7011, 0.7065, 0.7145, 0.7190



Trading Recommendations


Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7020. Take-Profit 0.6980, 0.6910, 0.6830

Buy Stop 0.7020. Stop Loss 0.6970. Take-Profit 0.7065, 0.7145, 0.7190





 
#93
S&P500: Current Dynamics

05/13/2019


Despite negotiations, on Friday the White House raised customs duties on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion from 10% to 25%. Moreover, the USA threatened to introduce additional duties for another 325 billion dollars, i.e. on all Chinese imports. Beijing said it would retaliate.

The aggravation of the trade conflict between the United States and China led to increased fluctuations in world markets. Last week, the US S & P 500 index suffered the most severe losses since the beginning of the year.

Many economists have warned that new duties and barrage trade barriers threaten the United States with a slowdown in economic growth.

On Monday, the major US stock indices are falling, and futures for the S & P500 index at the beginning of the European session is trading near the mark of 2848.0. Probably, the American session will also begin with the fall of the indices.

In case of fixation below the support level of 2860.0, the S & P500 will go to support level of 2770.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). While the S & P500 index is trading above this key support level, long-term positive dynamics remain.

Nevertheless, purchases can be resumed after the S & P500 consolidates in the zone above the short-term resistance levels of 2883.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 2890.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

The indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the daily, 4-hour, 1-hour charts turned to the short positions, signaling a likely continuation of the decline.

Support Levels: 2860.0, 2810.0, 2770.0, 2720.0

Resistance Levels: 2883.0, 2890.0, 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 2840.0. Stop Loss 2870.0. Objectives 2810.0, 2770.0, 2720.0

Buy Stop 2870.0. Stop Loss 2840.0. Objectives 2883.0, 2890.0, 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0





 
#94
AUD/USD: trade conflict between the US and China threatens the global economy

05/14/2019


Last Monday, China announced its intention to raise duties on US imports of about $ 60 billion in response to US actions on Chinese imports. This raised investors' concerns that the US-China trade standoff would lead to a further slowdown in the global economy.

According to economists, because of the trade war, China’s GDP growth in 2019 could be less than 6%, and the US dollar / Chinese yuan pair could rise to 7.2000.

The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Eric Rosengren, said on Monday that the escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China increases the risk of negative developments in the economy.

Financial markets reacted to these events with a fall in stock indices, a rise in the price of the Japanese yen, government bonds and gold, as well as a fall in commodity prices and commodity currencies. First of all, it refers to the Australian dollar. China is Australia's largest trading and economic partner and a buyer of its commodities, such as liquefied gas, coal, iron ore, and gold.

External and internal macroeconomic background contributes to increasing pressure on the RBA in the direction of lowering the interest rate, and on the Australian dollar - in the direction of its further reduction.

In this situation, the AUD / USD pair is likely to continue to decline, even regardless of the Fed's actions. With the escalation of international trade wars, the US dollar still looks preferable to other currencies due to the greater stability of the American economy in this situation.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics



Trading Scenarios

AUD / USD remains in a long-term bearish trend. The last wave of decline began in January 2018 from the level of 0.8120. AUD / USD remains under pressure below key resistance levels of 0.7140 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 0.7185 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

Nevertheless, the breakdown of the resistance levels of 0.6995 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.7055 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) may provoke a continuation of the upward correction to the resistance level of 0.7140. At the moment and below the resistance levels of 0.7140, 0.7185, short positions with targets at support levels of 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (2016 lows) are preferable.

Support Levels: 0.6910, 0.6830

Resistance Levels: 0.6980, 0.6995, 0.7055, 0.7140, 0.7185



Trading Scenarios


Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.6965. Take-Profit 0.6910, 0.6830

Buy Stop 0.6965. Stop Loss 0.6935. Take-Profit 0.6980, 0.6995, 0.7055, 0.7140, 0.7185





 
#95
WTI: the price has reached the zone of important support levels

05/15/2019


Participants in the oil market are concerned about the escalation of trade confrontation between China and the United States and the slowdown in global economic growth. The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2019 by 90,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day. These are negative fundamental factors for oil prices. At 14:30 (GMT), the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy will publish its regular weekly report, according to which, reserves are expected to grow by 2.984 million barrels. If the forecast is confirmed, oil prices may resume their decline.

At the beginning of the European session on Wednesday, WTI crude oil is trading near the 61.10 mark, through which there is a strong support level (ЕМА50 and the lower line of the ascending channel on the daily chart). In case of a breakdown of this level, the price will fall to support levels of 59.90 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and 59.50 (Fibonacci level 50% of the upward correction to a fall from the highs of the last few years near the 76.80 mark to the support level near the 42.14 mark). Above these levels, a long-term upward trend is maintained.

If China and the United States nevertheless succeed in reaching an agreement, while negotiations between the representatives of the two countries continue, it is likely that oil prices will rise again.

The signal for the resumption of purchases will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 61.85 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts). In this case, the price will go to the recent highs near the 66.50 mark and further, to the 70.00 mark, through which the upper line of the ascending channel passes on the daily chart.

The alternative scenario will be associated with the breakdown of the support level of 59.50 and a decrease to the support level of 57.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). Breakdown of support levels 57.00, 55.40 (Fibonacci 38.2%) will revive the bearish trend.

Support Levels: 61.10, 59.90, 59.50, 57.00, 55.40

Resistance Levels: 61.85, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50, 68.00, 70.00



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 60.60. Stop Loss 62.10. Take-Profit 59.90, 59.50, 57.00, 55.40

Buy Stop 62.10. Stop Loss 60.60. Take-Profit 63.50, 64.40, 66.50, 68.00, 70.00



 
#96
GBP/USD: Current Dynamics

05/16/2019


The pound continues to fall. The situation around Brexit has remained the main driver of the pound since mid-2016, when a Brexit referendum was held. At this time, the pound falls on information from the fact that the Prime Minister may lose his post, and his place will be taken by a supporter of tough Brexit.

Theresa May was unable to advance in negotiations with the opposition Labor Party to support the Brexit agreement. And even among the members of her Conservative Party, there are more and more of her opponents.

Having broken through the key support levels of 1.3045 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.3020 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), on Thursday the GBP / USD pair has been falling for 9 days in a row and is trading on Thursday at the beginning of the European session, near the 1.2830 mark.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts recommend short positions.

A further weakening of the pound will lead to a decline in GBP / USD to support levels of 1.2700 (lows of October and August 2018), 1.2600.

Purchases will be possible only after GBP / USD returns to the zone above the short-term resistance level of 1.2960 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) with growth targets at resistance levels of 1.3045, 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of GBP / USD in the wave, started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3370 (March and year highs), 1.3610 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).

So far, short positions are preferred.

Support Levels: 1.2800, 1.2778, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2600

Resistance Levels: 1.2870, 1.2960, 1.3020, 1.3045, 1.3100, 1.3125, 1.3167, 1.3210



Trading Scenarios


Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2880. Take-Profit 1.2800, 1.2778, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2600

Buy Stop 1.2880. Stop Loss 1.2820. Take-Profit 1.2960, 1.3020, 1.3045, 1.3100, 1.3125, 1.3167, 1.3210



 
#97
AUD/USD: Current Dynamics

05/17/2019


The US dollar rose on Thursday. The dollar index DXY, reflecting the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 major currencies, rose by 32 points on Thursday, to 97.68. Published US economic data exceeded expectations, which increased investor risk appetite.

According to data released on Thursday, the number of new homes in the United States has increased by 5.7% in April compared with the previous month and amounted to 1.235 million units; the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits was 212,000 (compared with the forecast of 220,000 and 228,000 in the previous weekly period).

On Friday, investors will pay attention to the publication (at 14:00 GMT) of the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan. The index is an indicator of consumer confidence in economic growth. High result strengthens USD, low - weakens

The index is expected to rise to 97.5 in May against 97.2 in April. Probably, the US dollar will receive an additional impetus to growth, if the data is confirmed or will be better than the forecast. The data below the forecast will have a downward pressure on the dollar, but only in the short term.

Under conditions of uncertainty and escalation of international trade wars, the US dollar looks preferable to other currencies due to the greater stability of the American economy.

On Friday, the USD growth continues, while the DXY dollar index futures traded at the beginning of the European session near the 97.73 mark.

Meanwhile, the Australian dollar is falling after data came out on Thursday indicating that unemployment was rising in Australia to 5.2%. The revised data also indicated that unemployment in March was 5.1% versus a previous estimate of 5.0%.

Rising unemployment increases the pressure on the RBA to lower interest rates. On Tuesday, the RBA Governor will deliver a speech in Brisbane. It is possible that he will signal the imminent reduction in rates. Investors estimate the likelihood of the June decline in RBA rates at 40% and 100% in August.

In the current situation, the most likely scenario is a further decrease in AUD / USD with the closest target at 0.6830 (2016 lows).

Below the key resistance levels of 0.7130 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7170 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions remain preferable. A strong negative impulse prevails.

Support Levels: 0.6830, 0.6800

Resistance Levels: 0.6953, 0.6980, 0.7030, 0.7130, 0.7170



Trading recommendations


Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.6910. Take-Profit 0.6830, 0.6800

Buy Stop 0.6910. Stop Loss 0.6870. Take-Profit 0.6953, 0.6980, 0.7030, 0.7130, 0.7170





 
#98
XAU/USD: Current Dynamics

05/20/2019


At the beginning of the European session, the XAU / USD pair attempts to break through the strong and key support level of 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016 and ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

In case of a successful breakdown of this level, the targets for further decline will be the support levels of 1248.00 (Fibonacci 50%), 1197.00 (November lows), 1185.00 (Fibonacci 23.6%), 1160.00 (2018 lows), which will mean the return of gold prices in a bearish trend.

An alternative scenario involves the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1287.00, above which the upward trend will resume. The XAU / USD growth targets are resistance levels of 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00 (highs of February and 2019).

On Monday, market participants will closely monitor the performance of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which will begin at 23:00 (GMT). If he signals about the likelihood of a soon decrease in the interest rate, then the dollar may sharply decline, and the price of gold will rise.

Some Fed leaders are concerned about weak inflation. According to them, it is possible that the central bank will have to take measures to speed up inflation, and that they will be ready to lower interest rates. Although Jerome Powell believes that low inflation in the United States is a “temporary phenomenon”.

In the current situation, market participants prefer the dollar. The American economy as a whole is in a better condition than the economies of other countries amid the escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China.

Support Levels: 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00

Resistance Levels: 1287.00, 1296.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00



Trading recommendations


Sell Stop 1272.00. Stop Loss 1282.00. Take-Profit 1268.00, 1248.00, 1234.00, 1220.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00

Buy Stop 1282.00. Stop Loss 1272.00. Take-Profit 1287.00, 1296.00, 1303.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00





 
#99
AUD/USD: Trading Scenarios

05/21/2019


Rising unemployment and low inflation increase the pressure on the RBA to lower interest rates. "During the meeting on June 4, interest rate cuts will be discussed", RBA manager Philip Lowe said on Tuesday. According to him, "new stimulating measures could help accelerate economic growth".

In the minutes from the May meeting of the RBA published today, it is stated that "the lack of improvement in the labor market situation is an argument in favor of lowering interest rates". “Without easing monetary policy in the next six months, we should expect lowering forecasts for GDP growth and inflation”, the RBA leaders concluded.

International trade conflicts, primarily between the United States and China, also pose a risk to the Australian economy. Investors estimate the likelihood of the June decline in RBA rates in more than 50% and 100% in August.

Against this negative background, the decline in AUD / USD continues. Below the key resistance levels of 0.7120 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7170 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions remain preferable.

AUD / USD remains in a long-term bearish trend. The lows of the global wave of decline, which began in July 2014 from 0.9500, are located near the mark of 0.6830. AUD / USD may reach this level in the coming days.

The objectives of the upward correction are located at the resistance levels of 0.7015 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7100, 0.7120.

However, for now, only short positions should be considered.

Support Levels: 0.6830, 0.6800

Resistance Levels: 0.6932, 0.6980, 0.7015, 0.7100, 0.7120



Trading Scenarios


Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.6910. Take-Profit 0.6830, 0.6800

Buy Stop 0.6910. Stop Loss 0.6870. Take-Profit 0.6932, 0.6980, 0.7015, 0.7100, 0.7120





 
USD/CAD: before the publication of the FOMC minutes

05/22/2019

Current Dynamics


Speaking on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concern about the growth of US company debt. However, he did not say anything about the Fed’s monetary policy outlook, but noted that “GDP growth rates are stable, US employment rates are quite high, while wages are rising against the backdrop of restrained inflation”.

Inflation remains the focus of Fed officials.

The central bank set a target inflation rate of 2% in 2012, and never once ensured its sustainability. Moreover, this year inflation has weakened, even against the background of strengthening economy and employment growth. The inflationary expectations of market participants and the population have also weakened, and this increases the likelihood that real inflation will not grow as the Fed leaders want.

Most of them believe that this year the rates will not be changed, and those who thought they would be raised refused this opinion. Financial markets are expecting lower rates by the end of this year.

On Wednesday, market participants will carefully study the minutes from the May Fed meeting in order to understand the intentions of the central bank management regarding monetary policy. The publication of the Fed's minutes is scheduled for 18:00 (GMT). Volatility at this time may sharply increase in the financial markets if the protocols contain unexpected statements by the Fed leaders. The harsh rhetoric of their statements regarding monetary policy will cause a strengthening of the USD. Conversely, a penchant for soft politics will cause a weakening of the American dollar.

Lowering the interest rate of the Fed is a strong fundamental factor that will have a negative impact on the USD quotes.

Nevertheless, the demand for the dollar is likely to continue in the context of the escalating US trade conflict with China and amid a slowdown in the European economy, as well as expectations of the results of parliamentary elections (May 23-26) in Europe. At the same time, the RB of Australia and the RB of New Zealand directly declare monetary policy easing.

The dollar in the current situation looks preferable to other currencies due to the greater stability of the American economy.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics



Technical Analysis

The increase in volatility in the USD / CAD is expected at 12:30 (GMT) in connection with the publication of data on retail sales in Canada. In March, the level of retail sales is expected to increase by 1.0% in the country (after rising + 0.8% in the previous month). This is a positive factor that will support CAD when confirming the forecast.

After the USD / CAD updated its 3-month high near the 1.3520 mark at the end of last month, this currency pair is being adjusted, falling on Wednesday for the 4th consecutive day.

At the beginning of the European session, USD / CAD is trading near 1.3390, below the important support level of 1.3400 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).

The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 1-hour, 4-hour and daily charts turned to the short positions.

Nevertheless, USD / CAD maintains a long-term positive trend, trading above key support levels of 1.3310 (EMA144), 1.3265 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

The breakdown of resistance levels 1.3400, 1.3419 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart) will be a signal for the resumption of long positions.

After the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.3520 (2019 highs), the USD / CAD will head towards the resistance levels of 1.3660 (2018 highs), 1.3790 (2017 highs).

Support Levels: 1.3376, 1.3335, 1.3310, 1.3265

Resistance Levels: 1.3400, 1.3419, 1.3440, 1.3452, 1.3480, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 1.3370. Stop Loss 1.3435. Take-Profit 1.3335, 1.3310, 1.3265

Buy Stop 1.3435. Stop Loss 1.3370. Take-Profit 1.3452, 1.3480, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790