AUDCHF today, as we see here, the price is still sideways, but the big trend is bullish, so the best option is to buy it, you have to wait for the price until it touch support area at 0.58112 and start buy it with potential target up to 0.59310
S&P 500: talking about breaking a negative trend is prematurely
Investors enthusiastically welcomed the efforts of the Fed and the US government to support the US economy and population - US stock indexes completed last week with a record increase. The S&P 500, for example, grew by 15%, to 2530.0, DJIA - by 17%, to 21540.0. For US stock indices, last week was the most successful since 1938.
Earlier in mid-March, the ECB leadership introduced a new program for the purchase of Eurobonds in the amount of 750 billion euros in addition to the two ongoing quantitative easing programs - a regular monthly purchase of assets worth 20 billion euros and the announced “antivirus” tranche of purchases with a budget of 120 billion euros, which to be spend before the start of summer. In total, the ECB will buy in sum 1,11 trillion euros in asset markets this year.
Participants in the financial market cannot but take into account the joint actions of world central banks, which sharply softened monetary policy, as well as the record filling of the financial market with cheap liquidity.
It’s too early to talk about the turning point in the negative trend in US and global stock indices. Investors are still under stress amid the coronavirus pandemic and the collapse of the global economy.
Nevertheless, the first signals appeared to resume purchases, which should not be ignored. On the 1-hour chart of the S&P 500, the price broke through an important short-term resistance level (EMA200) near 2500.0.
A return of the index to the zone above resistance levels of 3000.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 3020.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the growth since February 2016 and from the level 1807.0) will indicate a resumption of the bull trend.
However, a breakdown of the support level of 2500.0 will be a signal for the sale of the S&P 500. Support Levels: 2500.0, 2415.0, 2319.0, 2240.0, 2180.0, 2020.0, 1900.0, 1807.0
Resistance Levels: 2600.0, 2685.0, 2790.0, 2940.0, 3000.0, 3020.0
EUR/USD: further growth of the dollar is likely
At the beginning of today's European session, EUR / USD is traded near 1.0965, through which an important short-term support level is passing (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). The break of this support level may lead to an acceleration of the EUR / USD decline.
According to preliminary official data released on Tuesday, in March the annual inflation rate in the Eurozone was 0.7% versus 1.2% in February. The target inflation rate set by the ECB is just below 2%.
At the same time, the indicator of the mood of companies and consumers in the Eurozone in March showed the largest one-month drop in the entire history of observations against the background of the proliferation and tightening of measures aimed at containing the pandemic of the coronavirus.
Economists' forecasts regarding the GDP of two competing economies (the US and the Eurozone) speak in favor of the American economy and, as a result, in favor of the US assets and the dollar (economists suggest that Eurozone GDP will decrease by 3.6% in 2020 due to the effects of coronavirus on the economy , while US GDP this year will also decline, but less than Eurozone GDP, by 2.9%).
At the same time, the uncertainty is still too high, and the growth prospects of the global economy remain under the influence of downward risks, which also supports the dollar as a safe haven.
Despite the fact that in the near future an avalanche of dollar liquidity will pour into the financial system of the world (after the announcement of extraordinary incentive measures by the Fed and the US government), the dollar continues to be in demand. In the near future, its further growth is most likely, including in the EUR / USD pair. Support Levels: 1.0900, 1.0830, 1.0785, 1.0655, 1.0600, 1.0580, 1.0530
Resistance Levels: 1.0965, 1.1000, 1.1050, 1.1090, 1.1145
USD/CAD: the resumption of the rally of the dollar is probably
Despite new extraordinary measures to support the US economy taken by the Fed and the US government last week, the dollar is growing again at the start of a new week and month. On Wednesday, USD / CAD is trading at the start of the European session near 1.4250, above the important short-term support level of 1.4180 (200-period moving average on the 1-hour chart).
The coronavirus pandemic has not yet reached its peak in Europe, and in the United States it is gaining momentum, threatening to grow on an even larger scale. Moreover, the economic situation in other countries (outside the United States) with the largest economies is even worse than in the United States.
It is possible that panic sales of assets and risky assets will recur, which will contribute to the continuation of the dollar rally.
Last week, the Bank of Canada again unscheduled lowered its key interest rate by 0.50%, bringing it even closer to zero in order to mitigate the economic damage from the new coronavirus pandemic.
A press release from the central bank also said that the spread of coronavirus and a sharp drop in world oil prices in the aggregate are putting serious pressure on Canadians and the Canadian economy. The Bank of Canada also announced its intention to launch a quantitative easing program (QE) in the form of purchases of government bonds of Canada in the secondary market.
The QE program and a significant reduction in interest rates should help weaken CAD. CAD quotes are also under pressure from a sharp drop in oil prices.
Thus, despite the overbought, the growth of USD / CAD may resume. In case of breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.4350, USD / CAD growth is likely to continue towards the resistance levels of 1.4600, 1.4660 (annual and almost 17-year highs).
In an alternative scenario and in case of breakdown of the support level 1.4180 USD / CAD will go towards the support levels 1.3860 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.3380 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
At the moment, a strong positive momentum is prevailing, making long positions preferable. Support Levels: 1.4180, 1.3940, 1.3860, 1.3660, 1.3520, 1.3452, 1.3380, 1.3330, 1.3300
Resistance Levels: 1.4350, 1.4600, 1.4665, 1.4700
EUR/USD: to the level of 1.0500 in the next 3 months?
Over the past week, the EUR / USD has been growing, making an attempt last Friday to break through the important long-term resistance level of 1.1090 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). However, a breakthrough did not work, and on Monday the decline in EUR / USD resumed.
Today, the EUR / USD pair is falling for the 4th day in a row, traded at the beginning of the European session near the level of 1.0925, below the resistance level of 1.1090.
In Europe, the situation around the negative impact of coronavirus on the economy is even worse than in the United States.
The current account surplus of the Eurozone balance of payments will provide some support to the euro. However, the growing political tensions and disagreements within the bloc may lower the EUR / USD to 1.0500 mark over the next 3 months, economists say. Will Eurozone leaders be able to resolve their differences over the economic response to the coronavirus pandemic? So, recently Germany and other countries of Northern Europe, members of the European Union, refused the proposal of Italy, France, Spain and six other countries of the Eurozone to issue joint bonds.
EUR / USD also remains below important short-term resistance levels of 1.1000 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.0965 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), which speaks in favor of short positions.
Today, financial market participants will pay attention to the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of the US Department of Labor weekly report on the number of unemployment claims.
It is expected that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the week of March 20 - 27 will be 3,500,000, which will be a new, from October 1982, anti-record.
The position of the dollar may suffer in the foreign exchange market, since extremely negative data from the US labor market will indicate a slowdown in the US economy, which may soon face the problem of not just recession, but also depression. According to a report presented last week, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits amounted to 3,283,000. Economists attribute this to the coronavirus, which hit the US economy.
In an alternative scenario, the growth of EUR / USD into the zone above the resistance levels of 1.0965, 1.1000 will speak about the resumption of upward dynamics. Support Levels: 1.0900, 1.0830, 1.0785, 1.0655, 1.0600, 1.0580, 1.0530
Resistance Levels: 1.0965, 1.1000, 1.1050, 1.1090, 1.1145
Brent: price increases may be limited
The news that major oil producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, on Monday will discuss the possibility of reducing production, has given new impetus to oil prices. Earlier Thursday, oil prices strengthened significantly after U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted that he expects Russia and Saudi Arabia to agree to reduce production by millions of barrels. After that, Brent prices jumped by 47%, but then went down, as the Kremlin said it was not negotiating with Saudi Arabia.
A little later, official sources in Saudi Arabia reported that the kingdom is ready to consider a significant reduction in production, if other G20 countries support it.
On Thursday, Brent crude rose 21% to $ 29.94, showing a record one-day increase since 1988, and on Friday its price has continued to rise.
If OPEC does not receive signals from US companies that they will also limit oil production, then the oil coalition and Russia will most likely not reduce production, which will lead to a resumption of price reductions.
But still, Russia may go for some reduction in production, as it is forced to do so. An unprecedented drop in demand due to coronavirus has led to the lack of demand for some oil shipments and to the rapid filling of storage facilities.
For technical reasons, Saudi Arabia and Russia may go for a slight decrease in production, but this is unlikely to greatly change the direction of the current trend of oil quotes. And it is downward at the moment. There are simply no buyers for the current volume of oil supply.
Today, the oversupply is approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day. Oil storages are overcrowded, while gas and diesel consumption has declined.
In the current situation of the prevalence of supply over demand, Brent oil prices may soon fall below the recent 18-year low and test the strength of $ 10 per barrel.
Meanwhile, from a technical point of view, there may still be some increase in the price of Brent crude oil to resistance levels near 36.50 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and even 40.00 (local maximum).
The price broke through an important short-term resistance level of 26.70 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), and technical indicators on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts turned to the long positions.
But only a breakdown of the key resistance level 56.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will resume the bullish trend. Below this level of resistance, long-term negative dynamics prevail.
If the decline resumes, then after returning to the zone below the level of 26.70, the price will go towards annual and long-term lows near the level of 22.60, and possibly even lower. Support Levels: 27.10, 26.70, 22.60
Resistance Levels: 32.00, 36.50, 40.00, 46.00, 50.00, 53.50, 56.00, 56.90, 60.00, 61.00
WTI: negative dynamics
Despite the opening of today's trading day with the gap down (due to the fact that the OPEC+ teleconference was postponed to Thursday), during the Asian session, oil prices rose again. At the beginning of today's European session, WTI crude oil is traded near 27.00 mark.
OPEC+ was expected to resume consultations as early as Monday to consider the possibility of a coordinated reduction in production by 10 million barrels per day. OPEC also hoped that the United States would join the teleconference, however, the event was postponed for four days amid some disagreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia, and also because of the US’s unwillingness to decide on its own production cuts.
Now the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will convene in a virtual meeting on Thursday with the participation of several other oil producing countries, including Canada and Russia. Negotiations are expected to mark the end of the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, which led to a record collapse in oil prices over the past 30 days.
Oil market participants are optimistic about the outcome of this teleconference, even if they are more modest than a 10 million barrels a day reduction in oil, as Russian President Putin said last week.
From a technical point of view, the first signal for purchases (breakdown of the resistance level of 22.50 - ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) worked.
If the growth continues, the immediate targets will be the resistance levels 28.90 (local maximum and ЕМА144 on the 4-hour chart), 30.80 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the fall from this year's highs near 65.65 to the local minimum 20.05), 32.30 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
However, long-term purchases of oil futures should still be abstained. A coronavirus pandemic and a slowdown in the global economy will put pressure on oil prices in the long run for at least several weeks, or even months.
So far, a strong negative momentum prevails, holding oil quotes near multi-year lows. Support Levels: 26.00, 23.80, 22.50, 22.00, 21.00, 20.05
Resistance Levels: 28.10, 28.90, 30.80, 32.30, 37.40, 42.80, 44.00, 48.20, 50.00, 52.00
AUD/USD: significant uncertainty remains
Having broken through the important short-term resistance level of 0.6070 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), AUD / USD is growing again today.
The pair is developing an upward correction, striving for resistance levels of 0.6232 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.6300 (the upper border of the downward channel and EMA50 on the daily chart).
The growth of AUD quotes, as well as the growth of other commodity currencies, is facilitated by the growth of world stock indices and commodity prices. Indices, in turn, are rising thanks to the first signs that quarantine measures around the world are helping to curb the coronavirus pandemic, and also due to expectations of rising oil prices if this week the largest oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, the US and Russia, will come to an agreement to reduce oil production.
However, caution should be exercised in this regard. The peak of the coronavirus pandemic has not yet been passed, and the world's largest oil suppliers may not come to an agreement to reduce production.
At any moment, the upward correction of commodity currencies, including AUD, may break and be replaced by their decline.
“Substantial uncertainty remains regarding the short-term prospects of the Australian economy. In April-June, a very strong reduction in GDP is expected, as well as unemployment growth to a multi-year maximum”, said RBA managing director Philip Lowe after the central bank on Tuesday kept the current monetary policy unchanged. The pandemic dealt a painful blow to the country's economy, paralyzing the tourism and education segments and causing a sharp decline in consumer spending.
“The board will not raise rates until there is progress in ensuring full employment and there is confidence in stabilizing inflation in the target range of 2% - 3%,” Lowe added, and this is a negative factor for AUD.
AUD / USD purchases can only be short-lived, while the pair is trading above the support level of 0.6070, with targets at resistance levels of 0.6232 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.6300 (upper border of the downward channel and EMA50 on the daily chart).
Below the resistance levels of 0.6670 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 0.6590 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart) the long-term negative dynamics of AUD / USD still prevails.
The breakdown of the support level of 0.6070 will resume the downward trend of AUD / USD and once again make short positions relevant with targets at local support levels of 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510 (the recent almost 18-year low and the Fibonacci level 0% of the correction to the decline wave, which began in July 2014 from the mark of 0.9500). Support Levels: 0.6070, 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510
Resistance Levels: 0.6232, 0.6300, 0.6460, 0.6590, 0.6670
EUR/USD: short positions are preferred
After rising on Tuesday (amid a weakening dollar), today the EUR / USD is again falling, remaining below the important long-term resistance level of 1.1075 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
EUR / USD also remains below important short-term resistance levels of 1.0965 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.0890 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), which speaks in favor of short positions.
Technical analysis and fundamental background speak in favor of sales of EUR / USD.
Last month, the European Central Bank refrained from lowering the key interest rate, which is already at -0.5%, but announced cheap loans for banks and the purchase of a wide range of bonds to mitigate the economic shocks caused by the coronavirus. The program, which currently makes purchases of European government bonds by 20 billion euros per month, will be increased by 120 billion euros by the end of the year. At the same time, the ECB has less and less room for maneuver in comparison with other central banks, and the attitude of investors towards the prospects of European assets and the euro remains restrained-negative.
Goldman Sachs economists expect Eurozone GDP to decline by 9% in 2020 due to coronavirus. Their pessimistic scenario suggests more significant losses and a 16% reduction in GDP.
This is much higher than the expected loss of GDP in the United States, which provides additional benefits to American assets compared to European ones.
At the same time, the dollar will continue to receive support as a protective asset.
Among investors, there is growing confidence that the countries that are members of the OPEC+ coalition, following the meeting on Thursday, will not be able to agree on a further reduction in production. The oil market continues to be a strong driver for the stock market. Therefore, US and global stock indices may again come under pressure and resume decline if OPEC cannot decide to limit oil production.
Thus, it is logical to expect a further decline in the EUR / USD.
In an alternative scenario and in case of EUR / USD growth into the zone above the resistance level of 1.0965, we can expect the development of an upward scenario up to the resistance level of 1.1075. However, in the current situation and below the resistance level of 1.0890, short positions remain preferred.
From the news today, financial market participants will follow the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting of the Fed, and tomorrow - the publication (at 11:30 GMT) of the minutes from the March meeting of the ECB. Support Levels: 1.0830, 1.0785, 1.0655, 1.0600, 1.0580, 1.0530
Resistance Levels: 1.0965, 1.1000, 1.1040, 1.1075, 1.1145
USD/CAD: labor market and OPEC+ meeting
"A hard day expects Canadians on Thursday,” said Justin Trudeau, the country's prime minister on Wednesday. At 12:30 (GMT), employment data for March will be released. According to Trudeau, more than 4 million workers have applied for unemployment benefits or cash benefits since mid-March, representing almost 20% of the country's workforce, judging by the latest employment data. The forecast for unemployment in Canada for March: 7.2% (against the preliminary forecast of 5.6% and 5.6% in February), which is likely to negatively affect CAD.
However, the situation on the labor market may be even sadder.
At the end of last month (March 27), the Bank of Canada again unscheduled lowered its key interest rate by 0.50%, bringing it even closer to zero. "Our decision today is aimed at supporting the financial system, which plays a central role in lending to the economy, as well as creating the foundation that will allow the economy to return to normal", the central bank said after the meeting. However, participants in the financial market reacted rather restrained to the decision of the Bank of Canada.
A much greater pressure on CAD quotes is currently being exerted by a sharp decline in oil prices, since the Canadian economy still has raw material features, and a significant part of the country's budget is generated from the export earnings from oil sales.
Therefore, the volatility in CAD quotes is expected to increase sharply after 14:00 (GMT), when the OPEC meeting begins. According to media reports, Russia and Saudi Arabia are inclined to conclude a new deal to reduce production and end the price war, even despite doubts about the US ability to join this agreement.
The expectation of this event contributes to the closure of short positions in the oil market, which may support quotes for commodity currencies, including the Canadian dollar.
USD / CAD maintains positive dynamics, to be traded above key support levels of 1.3452 (Fibonacci level 23.6%), 1.3430 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Above the support level of 1.3940 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), purchases look safe.
Breakdown of the resistance level of 1.4100 will lead to further growth of USD / CAD.
In an alternative scenario, and after the breakdown of the support level 1.3940 USD / CAD will go to the support levels 1.3452, 1.3430.
However, much of the dynamics of USD / CAD will also depend on the outcome of today's OPEC+ meeting. Support Levels: 1.3940, 1.3660, 1.3560, 1.3500, 1.3452, 1.3380, 1.3330, 1.3300
Resistance Levels: 1.4100, 1.4272, 1.4350, 1.4600, 1.4665, 1.4700
Brent: on the verge of a new collapse?
The situation in the oil market remains the focus of attention of investors and participants in the global financial market. Participants at the OPEC+ summit agreed on Thursday a total production cut of 10 million barrels per day in May and June. In the future, the reduction will be 6 million barrels per day until April 2022, according to the OPEC press release.
Nevertheless, despite the joint decision taken by Saudi Arabia and Russia to reduce production, investors are still worried that the reduce in OPEC+ production may not be enough to support prices in the coming weeks. World oil consumption in April may fall by almost 35 million barrels per day, some oil market analysts predict.
“The fundamental indicators of the oil market are terrifying, they are much worse than ever before”, the OPEC Secretary General said on Thursday. According to him, the volume of free oil storage capacities in the world is more than 1 billion barrels, "world oil reserves may increase by another 1.3 billion barrels, which will lead to the full use of oil storage capacities in May".
Further prospects for an agreement to jointly reduce oil production are vague, and in countries such as the US and Canada, authorities are not able to quickly reduce oil production. At the same time, a number of other leading oil producing countries have not yet given their consent to reduce production.
The OPEC+ negotiations revealed contradictions between the main producers. It is possible that the oil market is on the verge of a new collapse.
On Thursday, after rising in the first half of the trading day, prices again went down.
ICE Brent crude futures fell 4.1% to $ 31.48 a barrel, gaining more than 10% earlier in the day.
In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 29.70 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), the price of Brent crude oil may resume a downtrend and head towards recent multi-year lows near the level of $ 22.60 per barrel. Below the resistance level of 35.50 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), long-term negative dynamics prevail and short positions are preferred. Support Levels: 29.70, 27.10, 26.70, 22.60
Resistance Levels: 35.50, 40.00, 46.00, 50.00, 51.70, 55.00, 56.00, 56.90
S&P 500: negative dynamics may resume
News from the oil market and the spread of coronavirus continue to affect the dynamics of stock indices. Asian stock indices (in Tokyo, Shanghai and Seoul) fell as a result of today's trading, while the markets of Europe, Australia and Hong Kong were closed due to Easter Monday. Probably, the US stock markets will also begin today's trading with a fall in the indices.
It seems that investors are restrainedly reacting to the agreement reached last week among the largest oil producers to jointly limit oil production.
Last Sunday, a deal to reduce production was still concluded with the support of US President Donald Trump, who helped to resolve the differences between Saudi Arabia and Mexico, which prevented the final agreement.
Under the deal, 23 countries pledged to reduce oil supply by 9.7 million barrels per day.
Countries that are members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) also intend, according to informed sources, to announce purchases of oil to replenish their national reserves, which will help remove some of its excess from the market.
As a result, the agreed measures can reduce the oil supply in the market by 20 million barrels per day, the OPEC draft press release notes.
Nevertheless, investors fear that a reduction in production will not be an effective measure to support oil prices in the coming weeks amid growing cases of coronavirus infection. This means that the fall in oil prices, and with them the stock indices, may resume.
The S&P 500 could not overcome the resistance levels of 2800.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart), 2790.0 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the downward correction to the increase since February 2016 and from the level 1807.0), and during today's Asian session, the S&P 500 futures fell sharply, largely leveling the growth of the previous Friday.
A signal for sales may be a breakdown of support levels 2718.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 2690.0 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart). Short positions are preferred. Only growth into the zone above the resistance level of 3020.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6%) will indicate the restoration of the long-term bullish trend of the S&P 500. Support Levels: 2718.0, 2690.0, 2643.0, 2600.0, 2500.0, 2415.0, 2319.0, 2240.0, 2180.0, 2020.0, 1900.0, 1807.0
Resistance Levels: 2790.0, 2800.0, 2875.0, 2962.0, 3000.0, 3020.0
AUD/USD: current dynamics
According to the Customs Administration of China, export of this country fell in March by 3.5% (in annual terms) after a decrease of 15.9% in the first two months of the year. In Q1, Chinese exports fell 11.4%, while imports fell 0.7%.
Despite the fact that the positive balance of China's foreign trade increased (in March it amounted to $ 19.9 billion against a deficit of $ 7.1 billion in January-February), the data again indicate the negative impact of the coronavirus epidemic on the economy.
According to the forecast of economists, in the 1st quarter of GDP will fall by 8.3% compared with the same period last year. This will be the first quarterly decline in China's GDP since the start of such statistics in 1992.
China is Australia's largest trade and economic partner and purchaser of Australian commodities, in particular coal, liquefied gas, and iron ore. The gradual restoration of transport links between Australia and China (as the coronavirus infection decreases) will also positively affect the Australian economy.
In the meantime, the balance of risks for the Australian dollar and other commodity currencies in the short and medium term will still be biased towards a fall against the current global economic crisis and the coronavirus pandemic.
The rise in commodity currencies quotes is also constrained by the renewed decline in oil and other commodity prices. Investors are still concerned about the overabundance of supply on the world market, despite a record decline in the total oil production of the OPEC+ coalition. The production cut agreement, which will begin on May 1, will reduce global supply by 9.7 million barrels per day. Nevertheless, the magnitude of the expected growth in world reserves in April and May is still likely to be insufficient to break the negative oil trend amid a slowdown in the economy and the coronavirus pandemic.
AUD / USD updated today a 5-week local maximum near 0.6432. Nevertheless, growth above this mark and the resistance level 0.6460 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the wave of decline, which began in July 2014 from the level 0.9500) remains open to question.
Below key resistance levels 0.6590 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 0.6670 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), long-term negative dynamics prevail.
The return of AUD / USD to the zone below the support level of 0.6320 will cause a resumption of the downward trend and will direct the pair inward of the downward channel on the daily chart and towards the recent local minimum near the level of 0.5510 (the recent almost 18-year low and the Fibonacci level of 0%). Support Levels: 0.6320, 0.6255, 0.6070, 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510
Resistance Levels: 0.6460, 0.6590, 0.6670
USD/CAD: long positions are preferred
The US dollar resumed growth on Wednesday. Fears about a larger coronavirus epidemic in the world are contributing to a fall in global stock indices and increased demand for defensive assets, the role of which is currently played by the yen, gold and the dollar.
The renewed drop in oil prices, in turn, has negative pressure on commodity currency quotes, primarily CAD.
Investors do not believe in the effectiveness of the OPEC+ restrictive measures adopted last week. According to many oil market analysts, the agreement was concluded too late and agreed quotas are not enough.
On Wednesday (at 14:30 GMT), the US Department of Energy will publish data on commercial oil reserves. In the week of March 28 - April 3, the figure increased by 15 million barrels. This is a record increase in the history of maintaining such statistics since 1982. It is expected that official data from the Ministry of Energy will indicate another increase in US reserves by 11.68 million barrels of oil.
Investors and traders trading CAD will also today study the outcome of the meeting of the Bank of Canada, which will end with the publication (at 14:00 GMT) of the rate decision.
It is likely that the Bank of Canada will also give a clear signal of its readiness to increase the volume of its large-scale asset purchase program, also known as quantitative easing (QE).
In addition, on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will present an updated forecast for the economy, which is likely to show a sharp slowdown in GDP growth and inflation, which may also indicate the regulator's tendency to strengthen incentive measures.
The volatility in the USD / CAD pair, therefore, can increase sharply at 14:00, 14:30 and 15:15 (GMT), when the Bank of Canada press conference begins.
On Wednesday, USD / CAD rose sharply, breaking through two important short-term resistance levels of 1.3940 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) and 1.4000 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Above these levels, only long positions should be considered. A breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.4100 (February 2016 highs) will mean a return into the upward channel on the daily chart and the restoration of the bullish USD / CAD trend. Support Levels: 1.4000, 1.3940, 1.3830, 1.3660, 1.3560, 1.3500, 1.3452, 1.3380, 1.3330
Resistance Levels: 1.4100, 1.4272, 1.4350, 1.4600, 1.4665, 1.4700
DJIA: a serious economic collapse cannot be avoided
Despite growth in the past few weeks, DJIA purchases and other stock indices should be treated with extreme caution. While the DJIA is traded in the zone below the resistance levels of 26000.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 24170.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%), it is premature to talk about the restoration of its long-term bull trend. The market is dominated by pessimistic sentiment associated with coronavirus and a slowdown in the economy, which can again bring down stock indices to new local lows.
From a report by the Fed (Beige Book) published on Wednesday, one can see that economic activity in the United States has stalled sharply. The decline in economic activity was sharp and sudden, which led to job losses and lower wages, the Fed said in a report. At the same time, business representatives expect a worsening situation in the short term and an increase in the number of layoffs.
Today, financial market participants will wait for the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of new data from the US labor market. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the week of March 29 - April 4 amounted to 6.6 million (after a record high of 6.9 million in the previous week). The suspension of work of enterprises led to mass layoffs.
It is expected that the number of new (primary) applications for unemployment increased last week by another 5.105 million.
Avoid a serious economic collapse, probably will not succeed. Probably, now is the right time to take profits in long positions on the stock indices, especially since the DJIA has hit strong resistance levels of 24000.0 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart and ЕМА50 on the daily chart), 24170.0 (Fibonacci 38.2% of the correction to the wave of DJIA growth, which began in February 2016 from 15500.0).
A signal for sales will also be a breakdown of short-term important support levels of 23300.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 23050.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). Support Levels: 23300.0, 23050.0, 22520.0, 21600.0, 21240.0, 20850.0, 20400.0, 19700.0
Resistance Levels: 24000.0, 24170.0, 25200.0, 26000.0, 26220.0
XAU/USD: it is worth being more careful with gold sales
After the beginning of last month, the XAU / USD pair reached more than a 7-year high near the mark of 1703.00, over the next 2 weeks it fell by 250 points (more than 17%), to the mark of 1452.00.
However, the strong support level of 1484.00 (Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to the wave of decline since September 2011 and the level of 1920.00 and ЕМА200 on the daily chart at that time) resisted. The price rebounded from the level of 1484.00 and again rushed up amid the aggressive stimulating actions of the Fed and the weakening dollar, as well as investors' caution regarding the spread of coronavirus in the world. In this situation, the demand for protective assets, including gold, will remain.
Global stocks rose sharply on Friday, and demand for defensive assets, such as government bonds and gold, fell after Gilead Sciences Inc., an American company, reported that its experimental drug showed good results in clinical trials in patients with Covid-19.
Financial market participants also ignored today's data from China, which indicated a sharp slowdown in the world's second largest economy.
Despite the official Chinese macro data showing that China's GDP in the 1st quarter of 2020 fell by 6.8% (in annual terms), which was the first such strong reduction since the beginning of the quarterly statistics in 1992, during today's Asian session gold quotes declined. The publication of important macro statistics in the second half of today's trading day is not expected. Therefore, in the absence of new negative information, in particular about coronavirus, gold quotes are likely to remain under pressure.
Nevertheless, the peak of the epidemic has not yet been passed, and a turning point in the negative trend of the global economy has not yet occurred.
Demand for defensive assets is also likely to remain.
At the beginning of today's European session, XAU / USD is traded near the short-term important support level of 1685.00 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Above 1630.00 mark, through which the middle of the rising channel on the daily chart also passes, it is necessary to give preference to long positions. Above the support level of 1525.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the long-term positive dynamics of XAU / USD remains. Support Levels: 1685.00, 1630.00, 1587.00, 1575.00, 1555.00, 1538.00, 1525.00, 1484.00
Resistance Levels: 1700.00, 1718.00, 1747.00
GBP/USD: short positions are preferable
Over the past few weeks, the pound has strengthened, while the GBP / USD pair has grown, coming close to a strong resistance level 1.2660 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart). Nevertheless, growth near this resistance level stalled, and the GBP / USD pair rolled back.
Despite the extraordinary efforts of the Fed and the US government to support citizens and businesses in the context of the coronavirus pandemic, demand for the dollar, as a defensive asset, remains. Until there is more clarity regarding the ultimate impact of the pandemic on economic activity, markets are likely to remain volatile and demand for defensive assets, in particular the dollar, is high.
At the same time, the British economy faced serious problems due to the coronavirus pandemic. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said Friday that the UK economy may well fall by 35% in the 2nd quarter.
According to economists, the need for more extensive stimulus measures is growing rapidly in the UK.
At the same time, as soon as the restrictions are lifted and the number of coronavirus infections decreases, investors will again turn their attention to negotiations on Brexit. The pound's prospects will worsen again if the UK refuses to extend the transition.
In the zone below the important resistance level 1.2690 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the GBP / USD pair remains vulnerable.
The breakdown of important short-term support levels of 1.2463 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) and 1.2435 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) will signal the resumption of short positions on GBP / USD.
Tomorrow, investors will pay attention to the data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the UK, which will be released at 06:00 (GMT), as well as the report on retail sales and purchasing managers' indices (PMI), which will be published on Thursday (08: 30 GMT). Support Levels: 1.2463, 1.2435, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2000, 1.1915, 1.1410
Resistance Levels: 1.2525, 1.2590, 1.2690, 1.2860, 1.2965, 1.3000, 1.3070, 1.3210, 1.3310
AUD/USD: negative dynamics
"The double blow to health care and the economy that led to the emergency we are experiencing now will cast a shadow over our economy for a long time", said Reserve Bank of Australia manager Philip Lowe on Tuesday. According to him, the country's GDP in the first half of the year will decrease by 10%, and unemployment will rise to 10% - a level that the country has not seen since the beginning of the 1990s.
Philip Lowe began his speech shortly after the minutes were published from the April meeting of the RBA.
As you know, in early April, the next regular meeting of the RBA was held, following which the bank management decided to keep the current monetary policy unchanged. The key interest rate of the RBA was previously lowered to a record low of 0.25%, and the target rate of return for 3-year government bonds was down to 0.25% in order to support businesses and Australian citizens amid the rapid spread of the coronavirus pandemic.
After the performance of Philip Lowe and amid a landslide drop in oil prices and world stock indices, the Australian dollar is weakening today along with other commodity currencies.
At the same time, the US dollar continues to dominate the financial markets amid investors fleeing risk, acting as a protective asset.
On Tuesday, AUD / USD broke through the important short-term support level of 0.6313 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart) and is developing a downward trend in the direction of support level 0.6272 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). A breakdown of this support level will increase the likelihood of a further decline in the pair and again make short positions relevant with targets at local support levels of 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510.
Below the resistance level of 0.6640 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the long-term negative dynamics of AUD / USD prevails. For now, only short positions should be considered. Support Levels: 0.6272, 0.6070, 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510
Resistance Levels: 0.6313, 0.6460, 0.6560, 0.6640
The dollar is falling on Wednesday. The DXY dollar index is moving towards the opening price of yesterday's trading day at around 100.05.
Commodity currencies and stock indices also, despite the drop in oil prices, are growing in Wednesday. The USD / CAD pair, which is most sensitive to movements in the oil market, is trading at the beginning of today's European session near 1.4135, below the opening price of yesterday's trading day.
Nevertheless, the growth of the US dollar, which plays the role of a protective asset in the current situation, may resume at any moment, especially when another portion of negative information will be received regarding the reporting of American corporations, whose profit and capitalization had suffered significantly in recent months, as well as news regarding the ongoing coronavirus pandemics.
Regarding the prospects of the Canadian dollar and the pair USD / CAD, many observers and economists are inclined to further weaken the Canadian dollar and the growth of the pair USD / CAD.
Last week, according to the results of the next meeting, the Bank of Canada left its key rate unchanged (at 0.25%), but announced its intention to start purchasing debt obligations of Canadian provinces and corporate bonds. "In the near future, the leaders of the (central bank) can hardly do anything else to mitigate this blow (in the economy)", said Bank of Canada manager Stephen Poloz at a press conference after a meeting last Wednesday.
According to the leaders of the Bank of Canada, in the 2nd quarter, the economic contraction could reach 15% -30%, which would be a record high.
Despite today's decline, the USD / CAD pair is developing upward, trading in upward channels on the daily and weekly charts, above the important short-term support levels of 1.4000 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) and 1.4090 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), which says in favor of long positions and growth in the direction of resistance levels of 1.4600 (Fibonacci level of 0% and highs of the pair’s growth wave from the support level of 0.9700, which began in September 2012), 1.4665 (March and 17-year highs).
In an alternative scenario, and after the breakdown of support levels 1.4090, 1.4000 USD / CAD will go to support levels 1.3860, 1.3900 (EMA50 on the daily chart). Above key support levels 1.3560 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 1.3500 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart)
a positive impulse prevails, making long positions preferable. Support Levels: 1.4090, 1.4000, 1.3900, 1.3860, 1.3660, 1.3560, 1.3500, 1.3450
Resistance Levels: 1.4200, 1.4272, 1.4350, 1.4600, 1.4665, 1.4700
EUR/USD: towards "the south"
Investors' attitude towards the prospects of European assets and the euro remains restrained negative after the publication of the Eurozone business activity indexes at the beginning of today's European session.
The Eurozone composite PMI (according to IHS Markit) in April reached a record low of 13.5 (with a forecast of 25.7 and values of 29.7 in March and 51.6 in February). The PMI index of business activity in the most important manufacturing sector of the Eurozone also in April was much worse than the forecast of 39.2 and the previous value of 44.5, amounting to 33.6. Values below 50 indicate a slowdown in activity.
Economists predict a significant weakening of business activity in the Eurozone and in the 2nd quarter, which may be the most severe fall in the entire history of observations, due to the fact that most of the European economy is likely to continue to be in quarantine mode to curb the spread of coronavirus in the coming weeks, and maybe months, if the pandemic situation does not begin to improve.
Today, investors will also pay attention to the publication of data from the US labor market, which can cause increased volatility in the quotes of the dollar and the pair EUR / USD, respectively.
At 12:30 (GMT) the US Department of Labor will publish weekly data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the week of April 12-18. Their number is forecast to be 4.2 million (after 5.245 million applications in the previous reporting week).
However, the reaction of market participants to the publication of this report by the US Department of Labor can be completely unpredictable. But so far, the dollar continues to be in demand, including because of its role as a protective asset.
Thus, it is logical to expect a further decline in the EUR / USD pair, which is trading at the beginning of today's European session near 1.0760, 1.0780, in the zone below the important short-term resistance levels of 1.0925 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.0865 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart ), which speaks in favor of short positions. Support Levels: 1.0785, 1.0655, 1.0600, 1.0580, 1.0530
Resistance Levels: 1.0865, 1.0925, 1.0965, 1.1000, 1.1020, 1.1050, 1.1145