Daily Market Analytics and Trading Recommendations by Tifia Company

DJIA: rally may continue in the new year

12/26/2019


The US stock market is dominated by positive dynamics. US stock indexes end the year with the best results in the last 6 years. The S&P 500 gained almost 29% this year, DJIA - 24%, moreover, shares rose in almost all sectors.

Investors are also mostly optimistic about the prospects for the stock market in 2020.

In Europe and some other countries continue to celebrate Christmas. Trading volumes are likely to recover after January 6th.

Meanwhile, the uncertainty about the details of the deal between the US and China is fueling some uncertainty among investors. At the same time, the exact form of future trade relations between the UK and the EU is unclear. In addition, the risk of another Scottish independence referendum is growing.

Expectations of further growth in stock indices speak in favor of DJIA purchases.

In an alternative scenario, after the breakdown of the short-term support level of 28330.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) and in case of resumption of decline, the targets will be support levels 27950.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 27100.0 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 26800.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart )

The breakdown of support level 26800.0 may provoke a further decrease to support levels 25500.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the DJIA growth wave, which began in February 2016 from the level of 15500.0), 25270.0 (August lows), 24600.0 (June 2019 lows).

Stronger decline in the DJIA will require convincing evidence of a slowdown in the US economy and a worsening trade conflict between the US and China.

In the meantime, there is the long-term positive dynamics of US stock indices and the DJIA index, including.

Support Levels: 28330.0, 27950.0, 27400.0, 27100.0, 26800.0, 25550.0

Resistance Levels: 28585.0



Trading Scenarios


Buy Stop 28650.0. Stop-Loss 28300.0. Take-Profit 29000.0, 30000.0

Sell Stop 28300.0. Stop-Loss 28650.0. Take-Profit 27950.0, 27400.0, 27100.0, 26800.0, 25550.0





 
Brent: Strong positive momentum

12/27/2019


A strong positive momentum of a fundamental nature, observed on world stock markets and the oil market, is pushing prices to new 3-month highs.

The price broke through at the beginning of the month the key resistance level 63.90 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level 38.2% of downward correction in the wave of price growth from the level near the level of 27.10 to the highs of October 2018 near the level of 86.60) and continues to develop upward trend in side of the local maximum 69.70.

In the case of a breakthrough of this resistance level, the next growth target will be the resistance level 72.60 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and the upper border of the ascending channel on the weekly chart).

The positive mood of investors is fueled by hopes that the US and China will reach an agreement of the "first phase" in January. Earlier this month, OPEC and other oil producing countries, including Russia, agreed on an additional cumulative cap on production of 500,000 barrels per day in order to reduce global supply.

Following the results of three meetings, the Fed lowered interest rates this year, and in October the range of key interest rates was 1.5% - 1.75%. At the same time, in December, Fed leaders said that monetary policy was likely to remain unchanged in the next 2020.

The stock market euphoria, despite the political instability in some regions of the world, also contributes to the growth of oil prices.

Thus, a favorable external background is forming for the possibility of further growth in the oil market.

In an alternative scenario, the signal for the resumption of sales will be a breakdown of the support level of 66.40 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

The breakdown of the support levels 63.90, 63.00 will mean the resumption of the global downtrend with support at the levels of 60.40 (May lows), 58.50, 56.90 (Fibonacci level of 50%).

From the news today, we are waiting for the publication by the US Department of Energy at 15:30 (GMT) weekly data on stocks of oil and petroleum products. According to the forecast, it is expected that they decreased by 1.724 million barrels last week. When confirmed, oil is likely to continue to rise in price. Also, today (at 18:00 GMT) the next weekly report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes will be published. If the report indicates a decrease in the number of active drilling rigs, this may give an additional positive impetus to prices.

Support Levels: 67.50, 66.40, 64.50, 63.90, 63.00, 61.00, 60.40, 58.50, 56.90

Resistance Levels: 68.00, 69.70, 72.60



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 67.40. Stop-Loss 68.20. Take-Profit 66.40, 64.50, 63.90, 63.00, 61.00, 60.40, 58.50, 56.90

Buy Stop 68.20. Stop-Loss 67.40. Take-Profit 69.70, 71.00, 72.00, 72.60



 
DJIA: investor optimism pushes indices up

12/30/2019


Positive dynamics prevail in the global stock market. The main factor contributing to the growth of indices in recent days is both the traditional New Year rally and the expectation of the signing of the first part of the US-China trade agreement in January. If this happens, it should give the world economy an impetus for growth. Nevertheless, there remains a lot of ambiguity regarding the future prospects of trade relations between the two countries, whose total GDP is about 35% of total world GDP. The details of the agreement were not disclosed, so it remains unclear what will happen if the parties fail to resolve the remaining contradictions.

Investors are also mostly optimistic about the prospects for the stock market in 2020. Expectations of further growth in stock indices speak in favor of DJIA purchases.

In an alternative scenario, after the breakdown of the short-term support level

28450.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) and in case of further decrease in DJIA, the targets will be the support levels 28030.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 27100.0 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 26850.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

The breakdown of support level 26800.0 may provoke a further decline to support levels 25600.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the DJIA growth wave, which began in February 2016 from 15500.0), 25270.0 (August lows), 24600.0 (June 2019 lows).

Stronger decline in the DJIA will require convincing evidence of a slowdown in the US economy and a worsening trade conflict between the US and China.

In the meantime, there is the long-term positive dynamics of US stock indices and the DJIA index, including.

Support Levels: 28450.0, 28030.0, 27400.0, 27100.0, 26850.0, 25600.0

Resistance Levels: 28730.0



Trading Scenarios


Buy Stop 28750.0. Stop-Loss 28430.0. Take-Profit 29000.0, 30000.0

Sell Stop 28430.0. Stop-Loss 28750.0. Take-Profit 28030.0, 27400.0, 27100.0, 26850.0



 
USD/CAD: US dollar resumed growth

09/01/2020

Current Dynamics


Against the backdrop of the weakening US dollar, the USD / CAD pair broke through the key support level 1.3205 (EMA144 and EMA200 on the daily chart) last month and reached 1.2957 in early January. Further decline and breakdown of the long-term support level of 1.2930 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) would mean breaking the bullish trend of USD / CAD.

Nevertheless, there was no further decrease in USD / CAD and today the pair has been growing for the third day in a row.

The pair’s growth is facilitated by both the strengthening of the US dollar and the decline in oil prices that followed after their significant increase on the eve amid a sharp aggravation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. As you know, on Tuesday night, Iran launched a missile attack on US military bases in Iraq.

However, as follows from the statements of the White House, none of the US military was injured.

In turn, the Iranian Foreign Minister tweeted that the missile attacks were not intended to escalate the conflict or start a war.

The words of US President Trump that "everything is fine", and Iran, it seems, does not intend to continue the conflict, reassured investors, which helped to renew the rally of US stock indices and the USD.

USD / CAD broke through the short-term resistance level 1.3027 on Wednesday (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), which was the first signal to resume long positions, and is trading on Thursday near the local resistance level 1.3050 (October lows).

If the growth continues, USD / CAD will go to the resistance level 1.3120 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), and in case of breakdown, the growth will accelerate to the key resistance level 1.3205.

The December report of the US Ministry of Labor will be published on Friday. Economists expect jobs to reach +160,000, while unemployment remains at 3.5%, as in November.

Also, on Friday at the same time (at 13:30 GMT) will be published data from the Canadian labor market. In December, Canada's unemployment rate is expected to be 5.8%. This is slightly better than the November figure, but still worse than the average for 2019 (about 5.6% - 5.7%). Growth in unemployment is a negative factor for the national currency. If the data turn out to be worse than the forecast of 5.8%, then the Canadian dollar will drop sharply, and the growth of USD / CAD will continue.

In an alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the short-term support level 1.3027 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), short positions will again become relevant.

Nevertheless, in this period of time (13:30 GMT) on Friday, a sharp increase in volatility in the foreign exchange market is expected, and above all - in the pair USD / CAD.

From the news today it is worth paying attention to the speech at 19:00 (GMT) of the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz. If in his speech today he touches on the topic of monetary policy, the volatility of Canadian dollar quotes will increase. If Stephen Poloz speaks out in favor of the need for a softer monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, then the weakening of the Canadian dollar and the growth of USD / CAD will accelerate.

Support Levels: 1.3027, 1.3000, 1.2960, 1.2930

Resistance Levels: 1.3050, 1.3120, 1.3205, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 1.3025. Stop-Loss 1.3065. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.2960, 1.2930

Buy Stop 1.3065. Stop-Loss 1.3025. Take-Profit 1.3120, 1.3205, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452





 
Brent: prices fell sharply after rising

earlier

10/01/2020

Current Dynamics


Dollar growth continues on Friday. The DXY dollar index, which reflects the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 major currencies, rose another 0.18% to 97.25, 10 points above today's open price. Most likely, the dollar will also end this week on a positive note, if data from the US labor market will meet the expectations of market participants. The publication of this data is scheduled for 13:30 (GMT), and economists expect that in December the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector of the American economy increased by +160,000, while unemployment remained at 3.5%, as In November.

A report by the ADP Research Institute on the change in the number of employees published on Wednesday indicated an increase in jobs in the private sector of the US economy by 202,000 in December (the forecast was +160,000). November ADP data on jobs were revised up to +124,000, while earlier it was reported an increase of 67,000. These are very positive data indicating the stability of the US labor market.

Meanwhile, oil prices continue to decline on Friday, both against the backdrop of a stronger dollar and after statements by US President Donald Trump, which eased investors' concerns about escalating the conflict in the Middle East region.

As the degree of tension in the Middle East declined, the price also began to decline. At the beginning of today's European session, Brent crude is trading near the short-term support level of 66.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

Nevertheless, above the support levels of 64.30 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 63.90 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2% of downward correction in the wave of price growth from the level near the level of 27.10 to the October 2018 highs near the level of $86.60 per barrel), long-term positive dynamics Brent oil prices remain.

Therefore, a decrease to the support level of 66.00 provides a good opportunity to build up long positions.

In the case of a breakthrough of the local maximum of 69.70, recorded in September after the drone attack on large oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the next growth target will be the resistance level of 72.60 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and the upper border of the ascending channel on the weekly chart).

In an alternative scenario, the signal for resumption of sales will be a breakdown of support levels 66.00, 65.10 (EMA50 on the daily chart) with targets at support levels 64.30, 63.90, 63.00. The breakdown of these support levels will mean breaking the bull trend and the resumption of the global downtrend with support at 60.40 (May lows), 58.50, 56.90 (Fibonacci level of 50%).

From the news today regarding oil prices, it is worth paying attention to the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the weekly report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes. According to the latest report, the number of active drilling rigs in the United States grew over the past month by just 2 rigs, to 670 units from 668 units 4 weeks ago. However, this is much less than the number of active drilling rigs at the beginning of June (800 units) and at the beginning of September (742 units). If a Baker Hughes report indicates a decline in the number of active rigs, it could also support oil prices.

Support Levels: 66.00, 65.10, 64.30, 63.90, 63.00, 61.00, 60.40, 58.50, 56.90

Resistance Levels: 66.65, 67.50, 69.70, 71.95, 72.60



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 64.90. Stop-Loss 66.70. Take-Profit 64.30, 63.90, 63.00, 61.00, 60.40, 58.50, 56.90

Buy Stop 66.70. Stop-Loss 64.90. Take-Profit 67.50, 69.70, 71.95, 72.60





 
GBP/USD: the pair still has positive dynamics

Current dynamics

13/01/2020


Pound and GBP / USD are falling at the beginning of the new week. Last Thursday, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said the Monetary Policy Committee was ready to take action if the weakness of the economy continued. At the same time, member of the committee, Sylvanas Tenreiro, said on Friday that further stimulation of the British economy is possible in the "coming months". Another member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, Gertyan Wlige, also spoke in the same tone in an interview with the Financial Times on Monday, saying he would vote in January to lower interest rates if there are no signs of an improvement in the economy.

Following the publication of fresh UK macro data at the beginning of today's European session, the pound accelerated its decline. According to the data presented, production in the UK manufacturing sector decreased by -1.7% in November (-2% in annual terms with a forecast of -1.7%), and overall industrial production decreased by -1.2% in November ( -1.6% in annual terms). The data turned out to be significantly worse than forecasts of economists.

Data continues to show the extremely negative impact of the Brexit process on the British economy.

After the publication of macro data, the GBP / USD pair fell to 1.2970, which is 88 points below the closing price last Friday. If GBP / USD continues to decline, the goals will be the support levels of 1.2910 (December lows), 1.2800 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

So far (and above the key support level of 1.2800), medium-term positive dynamics of GBP / USD remains. The return of GBP / USD to the zone above the resistance level of 1.3090 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) will indicate the restoration of positive dynamics. In this case, the growth will continue towards the resistance levels 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the GBP / USD reduce in the wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3340 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). A breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.3510 will mark targets at resistance levels of 1.3960 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), 1.4350 (highs of January and April 2018), 1.4580 (Fibonacci level of 50%). Growth above the level of 1.4580 will mean the final break of the bearish trend.

At the same time, the dollar is likely to retain its position in the current conditions. Investors are now excitedly waiting for the first-phase trade agreement between the US and China on January 15. The parties also intend to continue negotiations on a broader economic cooperation and agreed to hold negotiations twice a year with the aim of promoting economic reforms and resolving disputes. Such a development of events is also likely to help maintain demand for US assets and the dollar.

Support Levels: 1.2980, 1.2910, 1.2800

Resistance Levels: 1.3015, 1.3050, 1.3090, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 1.2960. Stop-Loss 1.3060. Take-Profit 1.2910, 1.2800

Buy Stop 1.3060. Stop-Loss 1.2960. Take-Profit 1.3090, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190



 
S&P 500: need new drivers to continue the rally

14/01/2020


The risks of escalating the conflict between the US and Iran have declined. Investors are waiting for the signing of the “first phase” of a trade agreement between the US and China on Wednesday. The parties also intend to continue negotiations on a broader economic cooperation and agreed to hold negotiations twice a year with the aim of promoting economic reforms and resolving disputes. The strongest negative factor and risks holding back the growth of the global economy seem to be starting to decline.

At the same time, it should be noted that the signing of this trade agreement is already mainly taken into account in prices. Therefore, to continue the rally in the stock market, additional drivers are needed.

On Tuesday, the volatility of the dollar and US stock indexes may rise at 13:30 (GMT), when the latest data on consumer inflation in the US will be published. The Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI), which is a key indicator for measuring inflation and changing consumer preferences, is expected to increase +0.2% in December (as it did in the previous two months). If the data for December is weaker than the forecast, then the dollar will most likely respond with a short-term, but strong decline, and stock indices are likely to rise.

According to the latest data from the US Department of Labor published on Friday, private sector wages rose 2.9% in December compared with the same period last year. This is the weakest growth since July 2018, which, according to investors, does not raise concerns about rising inflation. So, the Fed will not raise interest rates to curb inflation. This is a positive fact for buyers in the stock market.

The S&P 500 index maintains long-term positive dynamics, trading above key support levels of 3010.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 3068.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and mark 2335.0). Long positions are preferred.

In an alternative scenario, and after the breakdown of the short-term support level 3255.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), the correctional decline of S&P 500 can continue to the support levels 3196.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 3168.0 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart). However, only a breakdown of support levels of 3010.0 and 2926.0 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%) will increase the risks of the bullish trend S&P 500 breaking.

Support Levels: 3255.0, 3196.0, 3168.0, 3100.0, 3068.0, 3010.0, 2926.0

Resistance Levels: 3294.0, 3300.0



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 3254.0. Stop-Loss 3296.0. Goals 3196.0, 3168.0, 3100.0, 3068.0, 3010.0, 2926.0

Buy Stop 3296.0. Stop-Loss 3254.0. Goals 3300.0, 3350.0, 3400.0



 
GBP/USD: the pound remains under pressure from disappointing macro data

15/01/2020


After the release of fresh UK macro data (at 09:30 GMT), GBP / USD continued to decline on Wednesday, trading at the moment near the 1.2995 mark and the EMA50 support level on the daily chart.

The dynamics of the pound, which has already fallen by about 2% since the beginning of the year, is determined by weak macro data coming from the UK and the continuing uncertainty about Brexit.

The UK should leave the EU on January 31, although access to the EU markets in their current form will remain at least until the end of this year, while the terms of a new agreement are being worked out.

However, weak economic data suggests that uncertainty about Brexit harms the economy more than many observers expected.

Following comments by Bank of England management and disappointing macro data this week, market participants sharply increased the likelihood of policy easing at a Bank of England meeting on January 30. If the bank really lowers the rate (as predicted by some economists, by 0.25%), then the drop in the pound in the absence of progress on Brexit is likely to accelerate.

Now the attention of market participants has shifted to the signing of a trade agreement between the United States and China. The signing process will begin at 16:00 (GMT). The White House will evaluate the progress made and, possibly, reduce duties on goods from China again, but not earlier than 10 months after the signing of the trade agreement planned for today. Existing duties on Chinese imports will remain in effect until the end of the US presidential election in November 2020.

Despite today's decline in the pound, above the key support level of 1.2800 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), medium-term positive dynamics of GBP / USD remains.

If GBP / USD returns to the zone above the resistance level 1.3050 (EMA200 on the 4-hour and 1-hour chart), the pair will continue to grow towards the resistance levels 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the GBP/USD reduce in the wave that started in July 2014, near the level of 1.7200), 1.3340 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

Support Levels: 1.2995, 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2800

Resistance Levels: 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 1.2985. Stop-Loss 1.3055. Take-Profit 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2800

Buy Stop 1.3055. Stop-Loss 1.2985. Take-Profit 1.3090, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190



 
DJIA: positive fundamental background

16/01/2020


Despite the fact that the signing of the “first phase” trade agreement between the United States and China has largely been won back by markets, investors enthusiastically welcomed this event.

US President Donald Trump called the deal a crucial and unprecedented step in relations with China, leading to "fair and mutually beneficial trade".

Speaking to reporters, Trump's economic adviser Larry Kudlow called the signed agreement the best deal ever made between the United States and China.

The United States agreed to lower duties on Chinese goods worth $ 120 billion to 7.5% and to cancel the previously planned introduction of new duties on imports from China.

Meanwhile, as Trump had previously stated, the remaining fees will be used in working out the “second phase” agreement.

If, in the course of fulfilling the obligations undertaken, one of the parties violates them, then the infringed party will be entitled to take “proportional measures of protection”, which, in essence, means the restoration of duties.

So far, markets have ignored the likelihood of possible complications during the elaboration of the “second stage” of the trade agreement.

As the Beige Book published last Wednesday, the U.S. economy continued to grow at a moderate pace in the last six weeks of 2019. “Expectations regarding short-term prospects remain moderately favorable in the country”, the Fed said.

Thus, the fundamental factor speaks in favor of the further growth of US stock indices and the DJIA index as well.

In an alternative scenario, the first signal for sales will be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 28855.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). In case of further decline, the targets will be the support levels 28420.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 27400.0 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 27100.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Above the key support levels of 27400.0, 27100.0, the long-term upward dynamics of the DJIA remains.

Support Levels: 28855.0, 28420.0, 28000.0, 27400.0, 27100.0, 25945.0, 25050.0, 24600.0, 23970.0

Resistance Levels: 29180.0



Trading Scenarios


Buy Stop 29205.0. Stop-Loss 28850.0. Take-Profit 29300.0, 30000.0

Sell Stop 28850.0. Stop-Loss 29205.0. Take-Profit 28420.0, 28000.0, 27400.0



 
EUR/USD: the pair is again under pressure

17/01/2020


The weakening Euro and lower EUR / USD continued on Friday. On Thursday and Friday, the EUR / USD pair has broken important support levels of 1.1138 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1122 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА144 on the daily chart) and continued to decline towards the support level 1.1109 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart) .

In case of breakdown of the support level 1.1109 and further decrease, the goal will be the local support level 1.1064. A deeper decline or resumption of growth will depend on the fundamental background.

As follows from the protocols published on Thursday from the December meeting of the ECB, the bank's leaders promised not to raise the key interest rate until inflation reaches the target level (slightly less than 2%), which is unlikely in the coming months and, possibly, years. The executives also said that even with negative rates, bank returns will be on the positive side, noting that interest rates can be reduced even more if necessary.

At the same time, previously published macro data showed that at the beginning of 2020, the US fundamental indicators supporting consumer spending (low unemployment and rising earnings) remain stable. According to the report of the Ministry of Commerce, retail sales in December grew by 0.3%. As you know, consumer spending is more than 2/3 of US GDP.

Today, market participants will follow the publication at 15:00 (GMT) of the preliminary consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in January. It is expected that this indicator will be released in January with a value of 99.4 (against 99.3 in December). This is a high indicator, which indicates the growth of the economy and the confidence of American consumers in the economic development of the country. The publication of the indicator is also likely to support the dollar.

Below the key resistance level of 1.1155 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains and short positions are preferred.

In an alternative scenario, a signal to resume purchases will be a growth into the zone above resistance levels 1.1122, 1.1138 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

Support Levels: 1.1109, 1.1064, 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900

Resistance Levels: 1.1120, 1.1138, 1.1155, 1.1205, 1.1240, 1.1285



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 1.1090. Stop-Loss 1.1125. Take-Profit 1.1064, 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0900

Buy Stop 1.1125. Stop-Loss 1.1090. Take-Profit 1.1155, 1.1200, 1.1240, 1.1285



 
GBP/USD: Current Dynamics

After the publication of data from the retail sector in the UK and the USA last Friday, GBP / USD continues to decline today for the second day in a row.

In the UK, retail sales in December fell by -0.6% in the country (v.s. a forecast of +0.7%), and in the United States, according to the report of the Ministry of Commerce, they grew by 0.3% compared to the previous month.

Strong retail sales in the 4th quarter will have a positive impact on the growth rate of US GDP, economists say, expecting GDP growth in the 4th quarter at 2.5 - 2.6%.

At the same time, weak macro data recently received from the UK reinforce expectations of a softening of the Bank of England policy at a meeting on January 30.

In the USA today is a day off on the occasion of the celebration of the birthday of Martin L. King. Therefore, trading volumes during the american trading session will be low, which, however, does not exclude the possibility of a sharp increase in volatility in the "thin market".

The volatility in the GBP / USD pair may again rise sharply tomorrow after the publication (at 09:30 GMT) of the UK labor market data. It is likely that the data will indicate a slowdown in wage growth and that unemployment is no longer dropping, although it is close to the lows over the past few years.

Meanwhile, the GBP / USD pair broke through the lower border of the rising channel on the daily chart and is trading below important resistance levels of 1.2995 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart), 1.3050 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts).

In case of breakdown of the support levels 1.2955, 1.2910 (local lows), a further decrease in GBP / USD is likely.

Below resistance levels 1.3120 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart), 1.3050, short positions are preferred.

Support Levels: 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2800

Resistance Levels: 1.2995, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3120, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 1.2945. Stop-Loss 1.3010. Take-Profit 1.2910, 1.2800

Buy Stop 1.3010. Stop-Loss 1.2945. Take-Profit 1.2995, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3120, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510





 
USD/CAD: Current Dynamics

21/01/2020


In December, following a decision by the Bank of Canada not to change monetary policy, and amid a weakening US dollar, the USD / CAD pair fell sharply, breaking through the key support level of 1.3195 (ЕМА144 and ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

The Bank of Canada leadership is looking positively at the state of the country's economy and labor market. Back in November, Stephen Poloz said that "the current monetary policy remains appropriate in this situation" and, in his opinion, it still "largely remains stimulating".

The regular meeting of the Bank of Canada on monetary policy issues will be held on Wednesday, and the decision on the rate will be published at 15:00 (GMT).

As expected, the Bank of Canada will not change the current interest rate, which is at the level of 1.75%, and will give a moderately positive assessment of the state of the Canadian economy. At 16:15, the bank’s press conference will begin, which can also cause sharp fluctuations in the Canadian dollar quotes if unexpected statements are made by the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz.

USD / CAD reached 1.2957 mark in January. Nevertheless, the breakdown of the support level of 1.2930 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), which would indicate a break in the bull trend, has not occurred, so far, and the USD / CAD is growing again, breaking through the short-term resistance level 1.3052 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

The immediate goal in case of continued growth of USD / CAD will be the resistance level 1.3096 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), and in case of its breakdown, the growth will accelerate to the key resistance level 1.3195. Growth into the zone above this resistance level will indicate a restoration of the bullish trend of USD / CAD.

You can return to sales if USD / CAD falls into the zone below the support level of 1.3027.

Below this level, short positions will again become preferable.

Support Levels: 1.3052, 1.3027, 1.3000, 1.2960, 1.2930

Resistance Levels: 1.3096, 1.3120, 1.3195, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 1.3025. Stop-Loss 1.3100. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.2960, 1.2930

Buy Stop 1.3105. Stop-Loss 1.3025. Take-Profit 1.3120, 1.3190, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400





 
AUD/USD: the pair remains under pressure

22/01/2020


Last year, the RBA cut interest rates three times amid a trade conflict between the US and China and weak growth in the Australian economy. In December, the RBA left the key interest rate unchanged, at a record low of 0.75%. Now, labor market conditions, household consumption growth rates, and company investment are key to the February meeting of the RBA, after the US and China entered into a “first phase” trade agreement last week.

RBA managing director Philip Lowe in November admitted the possibility of further stimulating the Australian economy after the rate drops below 0.25%. In the Australian economy, consumer demand is now declining and in recession. Personal consumption accounts for almost 60% of GDP, so the RBA always focuses on spending in stores. Without rapid growth in personal consumption, employment in the labor market will slow down, and the investment market will cool.

On Wednesday, Westpac reported a decline in consumer confidence in the country. The consumer confidence index fell in January by -1.8% (against the forecast of -0.8% and after falling by -1.9% in December).

The Australian dollar continued to decline after the publication of this index at the beginning of today's trading day. A day earlier, the Australian dollar was pressured by information about the outbreak of coronavirus in China.

The Australian economy is expected to create +15,000 new jobs in December, while unemployment remains at 5.2%. Data from the Australian labor market will be released Thursday at 00:30 (GMT). Weak GDP growth, low personal consumption and weak retail sales reinforce expectations of further interest rate cuts at a meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on February 4, which will put downward pressure on AUD.



On Wednesday, AUD / USD is trading below the key resistance level of 0.6910 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and below the important resistance level of 0.6881 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, ЕМА144 on the daily chart).

A breakdown of the local support level of 0.6828 (today's and monthly lows) will confirm a downward trend and a return to the global downtrend, in which AUD / USD has been since August 2011.

A signal for the development of an alternative scenario could be a breakdown of the local resistance level of 0.6850. However, the possible growth of AUD / USD is likely to be limited by the resistance level of 0.6910 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

Support Levels: 0.6828, 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300

Resistance Levels: 0.6850, 0.6881, 0.6910, 0.6938



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 0.6825. Stop-Loss 0.6860. Take-Profit 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300

Buy Stop 0.6860. Stop-Loss 0.6825. Take-Profit 0.6881, 0.6910



 
EUR/USD: on the eve of the ECB meeting

17/01/2020


Since the opening of today's trading day, the EUR / USD pair has been trading in a narrow range on the eve of the publication of the ECB's decision on rates.

At the beginning of today's European session, the EUR / USD pair is trading near 1.1090, below strong short-term resistance levels of 1.1108 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1115 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).

Below the key resistance level of 1.1150 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, which speaks in favor of short positions.

At the same time, the ECB leadership today may announce an increase in inflation expectations and reiterate that it is "closely monitoring the potential side effects" of negative interest rates on the economy.

The ECB's decision on rates will be published at 12:45 (GMT), and the press conference will begin today at 13:30 (GMT). A sharp increase in volatility is likely to occur during this period of time, especially if unexpected statements regarding the monetary policy of the bank are followed by ECB management. Negative interest rates are likely to continue for some time to come, but the ECB may revise them at some point.

Any statements by the ECB management that may indicate the possibility of moving away from the bank’s extra-soft monetary policy towards tightening it will be regarded by market participants as a signal to resume purchases of the euro, which will also cause the EUR / USD pair to grow.

In this case, after the breakdown of the resistance level, 1.1150 EUR / USD will go towards the resistance levels 1.1205, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the fall of the pair from 1.3870 in May 2014 to 1.0480 reached in March 2015). A signal for the implementation of this scenario will be a growth into the zone above the resistance level of 1.1115.

The breakdown of the local support level of 1.1064 may provoke a deeper decline in EUR / USD.

Support Levels: 1.1064, 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900

Resistance Levels: 1.1108, 1.1115, 1.1150, 1.1205, 1.1240, 1.1285



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 1.1060. Stop-Loss 1.1115. Take-Profit 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0900

Buy Stop 1.1115. Stop-Loss 1.1060. Take-Profit 1.1150, 1.1200, 1.1240, 1.1285



 
NZD/USD: commodity demand falls

24/01/2020


The New Zealand dollar received support today at the beginning of the Asian trading session after the publication of consumer inflation data. The consumer price index (CPI) in the country in the 4th quarter increased by +1.9% (after rising by +1.5% in the 3rd quarter, with the forecast of +1.8%). The NZD / USD rose in the first half of today's trading day, reaching an intraday high near 0.6628.

Meanwhile, commodity prices continue to decline amid the spread of the deadly virus in China.

While the NZD / USD is trading above the key support level of 0.6545 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), its long-term dynamics remains.

A signal for resuming sales will be a breakdown of the support level of 0.6613 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 on the 4-hour chart) with the target at the support level of 0.6598 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart).

The breakdown of the support level of 0.6428 (EMA144 on the daily chart) and a further decline will indicate the resumption of the global downtrend NZD / USD and the relevance of short positions with long-term goals at support levels 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100.

On the other hand, a breakdown of local resistance levels of 0.6635, 0.6665 could trigger an alternative growth scenario in the upward channel on the daily chart with targets at resistance levels of 0.6770 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.6865 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction in the global wave of the pair decline from the level of 0.8820).

Meanwhile, more active growth of the New Zealand dollar at the moment should not be expected, according to economists. Investors are gearing up for a slowdown in China, the largest consumer of commodities. Rising concerns about declining commodity demand will put pressure on commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar.

Support Levels: 0.6613, 0.6698, 0.6575, 0.6545, 0.6528, 0.6500, 0.6485, 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100

Resistance Levels: 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6770, 0.6865



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 0.6590. Stop-Loss 0.6640. Take-Profit 0.6575, 0.6545, 0.6528, 0.6500, 0.6485, 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200

Buy Stop 0.6640. Stop-Loss 0.6590. Take-Profit 0.6665, 0.6770, 0.6865



 


GBPJPY today, as we see here, there is a gap because of JPY, now the trend is bearish, you can wait for the price until it touch resistanca area at 142.905 wih potential target up to 142.161
 
EUR/USD: Current Dynamics

27/01/2020


The number of infected people with coronavirus in China has already exceeded 2,700, and the number of deaths has reached 80. The situation threatens to get out of control, and traders began to take into account the inevitable slowdown in China's GDP growth, which causes a decrease in world stock indexes.

Amid concerns about the spread of coronavirus and rising fears of a slowdown in the global economy, demand for safe haven assets (such as gold, yen) and the dollar are growing again.

At the same time, the euro resumed falling against the dollar at the beginning of today's European session after the publication of disappointing macro data (at 09:00 GMT). According to the IFO, the business climate worsened in Germany in January. The current situation assessment indicator published by the CESifo research group came out with a value of 99.1, which is worse than the forecast of 99.4. The IFO Economic Expectations Index, which serves as an indicator of current conditions and expectations in the German business sector, came out with a value of 92.9, which is worse than the forecast of 95.0 and the previous value of 93.9. The slowdown in Germany's economic growth and the deterioration of sentiment in the country's business circles is a bearish factor for EUR.



EUR / USD continues to trade in the zone below the key resistance level of 1.1150 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

To resume growth, the price needs to break through the nearest resistance levels of 1.1064, 1.1082 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1105 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).

However, the growth of EUR / USD is likely to be limited by the resistance level of 1.1150.

In an alternative scenario, and after the breakdown of the resistance level, 1.1150 EUR / USD will go towards the resistance levels 1.1205, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the fall of the pair from 1.3870 in May 2014 to 1.0480 reached in March 2015).

A breakdown of the local support level of 1.1015 (today's low) may trigger a deeper decline in EUR / USD. Below the key resistance level of 1.1150, the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, and a decline to the zone below the support level of 1.1000 speaks in favor of short positions.

Support Levels: 1.1025, 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900

Resistance Levels: 1.1064, 1.1082, 1.1105, 1.1115, 1.1150, 1.1205, 1.1240, 1.1285



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 1.1010. Stop-Loss 1.1040. Take-Profit 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900

Buy Stop 1.1040. Stop-Loss 1.1010. Take-Profit 1.1064, 1.1082, 1.1105, 1.1115, 1.1150, 1.1205, 1.1240, 1.1285



 
AUD/USD: commodity currencies are under pressure

28/01/2020


Earlier this week, the AUD / USD broke through the lower border of the upward channel on the daily chart and continues to decline, trading at the beginning of today's European session near the level of 0.6745.

The reluctance of investors to take risks due to the spreading coronavirus in China puts pressure on commodity prices, one of the largest consumers of which is China.

According to Chinese authorities, on Monday the number of people infected with coronavirus exceeded 4,500, and the number of deaths reached 106. Investors take into account slowdown in China's GDP growth due to an outbreak of coronavirus. As a commodity currency, the Australian dollar is also declining, losing about 4% since the start of the month against the US dollar.

In case of further decrease in AUD / USD, the targets will be the support levels of 0.6670 (2019 lows), 0.6600. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).

On Wednesday (00:30 GMT) inflation data for Australia for the 4th quarter will be published. Most likely, the data will confirm that core inflation remains below the target level (it is expected that growth in consumer inflation in the 4th quarter was +0.6% and +1.7% in annual terms). If the data turn out to be even weaker than the forecast, then the pressure on the RBA to further soften its policy at the February 4 meeting will intensify. The RBA is also expected to lower forecasts for GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2019 and in the 1st quarter of 2020, which will also put pressure on the AUD.

At the same time, the USD is strengthening, including due to the spread of the coronavirus and the fall of world stock indices.

A breakdown of the local support level of 0.6740 (today's and monthly lows) will confirm a downward trend and a return to the global downtrend, in which AUD / USD has been since August 2011.

In the current situation, only short positions should be considered. You can return to AUD / USD purchases after the pair returns to the ascending channel on the daily chart, the lower border of which passes through the mark of 0.6820.

Support Levels: 0.6828, 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300

Resistance Levels: 0.6850, 0.6881, 0.6910, 0.6938



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 0.6825. Stop-Loss 0.6860. Take-Profit 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300

Buy Stop 0.6860. Stop-Loss 0.6825. Take-Profit 0.6881, 0.6910



 
GBP/USD: on the eve of the meeting of the Bank of England

29/01/2020


On the eve of the Bank of England meeting on Thursday, the pound remains positive, and the GBP / USD pair is trading in the upward channel on the daily chart, above the key support level of 1.2835 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

The Bank of England will publish the decision on the rate on Thursday at 12:00 (GMT). It is widely expected that the Bank of England will maintain its current monetary policy unchanged. Also, many economists believe that the Bank of England in 2020 will also not change its policy amid a recovery in the UK economy.

Many economists predict an acceleration of UK GDP growth from 1.0% in 2020 to 1.8% in 2021 due to planned fiscal stimulus measures and the expected growth in investment, which will be possible if a trade deal is concluded with the European Union before the end of this year.

On Thursday, it is also worth paying attention to the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, which will begin at 12:30 (GMT). If he nevertheless favors a softer monetary policy, then the pound could drop sharply.

In any case, the volatility in the pound quotes during this period of time can increase sharply.

Below resistance levels 1.3120 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart), 1.3050, short positions are preferred.

The breakdown of support levels 1.2995 (the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart), 1.2955 (January lows) will trigger a further decline in GBP / USD to the key support level of 1.2835.

In case of breakdown of the resistance level 1.3050 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), the pair will continue to grow towards the resistance levels 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the reduce GBP / USD pair in the wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3340 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

On Wednesday, investors will be waiting for the publication of the Fed decision on the rate at 19:00 (GMT). The rate is likely to remain at the level of 1.75%, which is not to cause a strong reaction from the dollar.

Support Levels: 1.2995, 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2835

Resistance Levels: 1.3050, 1.3120, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 1.2985. Stop-Loss 1.3060. Take-Profit 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2800

Buy Stop 1.3060. Stop-Loss 1.2985. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3120, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510