jambutty

Before I chat about ‘Test Spends’ can we agree that the “Prime Directive” for HYIP’s is to recover the investment value FIRST plus a little bit of profit? We should also take into account any withdrawal and E-Gold fees. So on average the ‘Break Even’ point will be at about 110% of the spend. For ease of calculation and allowing for something better than a little bit of profit I favour 120%.

Thus if a site pays an interest rate of 1% it will take 120 days to ‘Break Even’ – at 2% 60 days, at 3% 40 days and at 4% 30 days to ‘Break Even’. Most people will agree that anything over 4% has a higher probability of folding sooner rather than later. The few exceptions that defy this logic only serve to prove the rule.

The investment plan duration is also a factor to take into account but I haven’t found a way of quantifying that yet. Other than a plan duration time of 200 days on a 1% interest without a principle return will double your money in 200 days. That is just 100% profit. On 2% 100 days – on 3% 67 days – on 4% 50 days.

We also need to take into account the probability of an HYIP folding as time goes by. I would suggest that the probability of an HYIP offering 1% disappearing into the sunset is highest during the first 2 to 4 weeks and after about 6 to 8 months. A 2% site upper limit is about 5 to 7 months. At 3% 4 to 6 months and 4% at 3 to 5 months. Thus the probability factor of a 1% site folding is HIGH within the first 20 days and after 220 days. By definition that means that an HYIP has a LOW PROBABILITY FACTOR of folding between 20 and 220 days. At 2% between 20 and 140 days – at 3% between 20 and 100 days – at 4% 20 and 80 days.

Probabilities by their very nature is not an exact science so a 10% to 20% leeway on the above figures will allow your own ‘gut feeling’ to come into play and any other factors that you consider might influence the HYIP going down.

The phrase ‘Test Spend’ crops up regularly but is there any point in making a ‘Test Spend’? In fact just what is a ‘Test Spend’? It is nothing more than the first ‘Spend’ to a particular HYIP. But the phrase ‘Test Spend’ implies that the sum invested is small and if the test is successful a larger investment will follow. By then it might be too late to invest a larger amount and most if not all will be lost.

For a 1% return the ‘Test Spend’ will reach ‘Break Even’ point after 120 days and it follows that a larger investment thereafter will also take 120 days to reach the ‘Break Even’ point – a total of 240 days. Add that to the running time of the HYIP when the ‘Test Spend’ is made and see where the TOTAL TIME falls in relation to the LOW PROBABILITY FACTOR of the site folding. For a 2%, 3% and 4% returns the figures will be different but the basic premise remains the same.

I would suggest that a ‘Test Spend’ is NOT warranted if made during the first 2 to 4 weeks running time of the HYIP offering 4% or less. Thus my initial spend should be a sum that I am prepared to lose. Any ‘Spend’ made during the first half of the LOW PROBABILITY FACTOR is likely to reach the ‘Break Even’ point but any follow-up ‘Spend’ is not.

The only time that a ‘Test Spend’ is warranted is in HYIP’s that offer more than 5% or 6% per day if the programme is no more than about 20 days old.

To sum up. I invest a sum of money I am prepared to lose in an HYIP as shown below and withdraw as and when I can until the programme folds. I DO NOT re-invest in that same programme. In spite of the temptation to do so, I DO NOT COMPOUND. I wonder how many people had a few hundred dollars compounded in Prime-Fund and not a penny in the bank when it went down?

So how do you apply the above?

Pick an HYIP for the interest rate. If the interest rate is something between those listed then pick the nearest up or down and go with that. Check in Whois the site running time and also its expiry date.

1% - invest between 20 and 100 days to reach the ‘Break Even’ point before the PROBABILITY FACTOR becomes HIGH.
2% - invest between 20 and 80 days to reach the ‘Break Even’ point before the PROBABILITY FACTOR becomes HIGH.
3% - invest between 20 and 60 days to reach the ‘Break Even’ point before the PROBABILITY FACTOR becomes HIGH.
4% - invest between 15 and 50 days to reach the ‘Break Even’ point before the PROBABILITY FACTOR becomes HIGH.

The sooner that you make your investment the better the chances of not just reaching the ‘Break Even’ point but gaining up to 100% profit as well.

10th October 2005.
Sadly the above PROBABILITY FACTORS have worsened in recent months so you need to take extra care when selecting an HYIP to gamble on.

However to try and makes things a bit easier for newcomers and anyone else HYIP Investing Strategy Part II is at http://goldentalk.com/t5327.html

Infoprises

Now those are words of a wiseman. Thanks for sharing your ideas, jambutty! This is quite the read and I'm eager to let it process inside my head for a little while.

I think it is quite sound advice. And while it is all just theoretical, it's a very excellent theory. I'll probably follow up again within the next couple of days but I think this one is worthy of printing!

Thanks again!

akuma99

Jim, wise words as always, in the main I agree with all you have said, I am in the middle of some statistical analysis of programs and hope to be able to bring that to you all soon. I can however see one reason to do a test spend, and that is to test the withdrawal system.

A lot of favourite HYIP programs seem to accumulate profits internally, and process the withdrawals manually for "security reasons". Just like compounding, this can be deceiving as a $1000 internal balance available is the same as a big fat zero if they don't process withdrawals.

While I don't employ this stategy as I tend to wait long enough for payment reports to be seen in forums like this, if someone is jumping in a program early (which does I admit go against the above) then if you were planning to invest $50 in a program, and the principal can be added to, then an initial "test spend" of $20 with a withdrawal request for one or two days, followed by the remaining $30 top up once withdrawals have been confirmed can be useful.

ken123

Those are words of the wise. Unfortunately the odd is not with us. Sonic, Lion-Forex, and perhaps po-trading folds very quickly recently. Is this typical in the past? Or maybe one of the mighty like PF filed causes the chain reaction?

Gintoh

Good work, jambutty!

Right-brained that I am, I'll try very hard to remember "Jambutty's Rules" whenever I add any new HYIPs to my portfolio.

How about something like "Dutch Service" that offers 10% for 15 days in one of its plans? Is there a "safe window" in there?

jambutty

A test spend to test the withdrawal system? Agreed akuma99 with an immediate follow-up for an increase if the withdrawal goes according to plan.

Sonic is still an unknown quantity ken123 and Lion were outside the Low Probability Factor when they hopped it.

But there will always be exceptions.

I was trying to quantify the AVERAGE HYIP. You cannot legislate for the extremes.

In all the data that I collected I chucked out the upper and lower extremes and averaged out the rest and then rounded them off to whole numbers. If that method is good enough to mark professional ice dancers then it’s good enough for me.

But it is a start and discussion could refine it into something a bit more positive. That’s why I posted it to get brains working and not as a “do this to earn.”

I feel confident that in at least 75% of HYIP’s using the above criteria you would come out on top and I put my money where my mouth is. Although I have done so in secret before to get the stats.

They are not rules Gintoh but a guide or a suggestion if you like.

sadness

Greetings jambutty,

Still waiting on Rue Wemir to pay jambutty have you recieved any payments from them?

jambutty

I know that this is slightly off topic but yes sadness I have just come out of E-Gold and I have been paid 1/160.

peterg

I agree with Jambutty in that I believe that making a minimum test spend is probably a WASTE OF VALUABLE TIME IN THE HYIP LIFE.
I prefer a small spend - I'm talking $10 to $20 - and then I tend to do the same as Akuma and Croiadh, an immediate WD of profit to ensure the system works. Then, depending on confidence and cash flow, I will let it run or re-invest as soon as possible.
When I really have a lot of confidence in the hyip, (like Sonic! :sickI will invest to about the $100 level.
I have also stopped my 'newbie' habit of 100% compound, looking for the big hit. It ain't gonna happen ! Get some money back to your e-gold as soon as you can. You can compound after you believe that your 'maximum loss' level has been safely reached - this is a personal decision, some will go for 100% return of principal, others are happy with 50% or 75% or 25% etc. etc. This is your own 'Risk rating' that you apply, and can be very different with each Hyip.

Have yield in Ponzi's... if you're quick, and brave !